Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[ShapurII]

Hahahaha​

​

US talks progressing, though nuclear program 'non-negotiable' Iran's FM says​

Fourth round of US-Iran nuclear talks end in Oman | The Jerusalem Post

Senior US administration officials told Reuters that an agreement was reached to move forward with talks to continue working through technical elements.

m.jpost.com

Are the claims in these video series verifiable ?

Yes, most of it is true, like 98% of it, and verifiable by official documents in the public domain. Some of the points have been slightly exaggerated though (like when it claims Iran has enough fissile material for over 10 nuclear devices) but the rest of it is pretty solid and evidence-based.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Yes, most of it is true, like 98% of it, and verifiable by official documents in the public domain. Some of the points have been slightly exaggerated though (like when it claims Iran has enough fissile material for over 10 nuclear devices) but the rest of it is pretty solid and evidence-based.

I think > 10 devices is correct

Iran has > 300kg uranium enriched to 60%. this can become 200kg of 90% HEU. Assuming 25kg per warhead already makes 8 warheads

Iran also has > 600kg of 20% HEU which gives another 133kg of 90% HEU, which makes another 5 warheads at 25kg / warhead

--> Iran has enough HEU (20%-60%) for c. 13 warheads

note modern designs can use as little as 15kg of 90% uranium per warhead, and we have seen reports that Iran was already working on very advanced two point implosion designs as far back as 2009 (see here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/nov/05/iran-tested-nuclear-warhead-design) so the true number could be as high as c. 22

note this is not including the large stockpile of 5% LEU that can also be enriched to 90% (albeit this will take more time)

 

[ShapurII]

I think > 10 devices is correct

Iran has > 300kg uranium enriched to 60%. this can become 200kg of 90% HEU. Assuming 25kg per warhead already makes 8 warheads

Iran also has > 600kg of 20% HEU which gives another 133kg of 90% HEU, which makes another 5 warheads at 25kg / warhead

--> Iran has enough HEU (20%-60%) for c. 13 warheads

note modern designs can use as little as 15kg of 90% uranium per warhead, and we have seen reports that Iran was already working on very advanced two point implosion designs as far back as 2009 (see here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/nov/05/iran-tested-nuclear-warhead-design) so the true number could be as high as c. 22

note this is not including the large stockpile of 5% LEU that can also be enriched to 90% (albeit this will take more time)

By that logic, Iran has over 100 nuclear warheads because if it converts all the uranium available to it, it can build hundreds of low-yield devices in an infinite amount of time.

You can use as little as 8 kilograms for a nuclear device if you can compress uranium to three times its density. The critical mass of U-235 is around 64 kg, but the more you compress your fissile material, the less neutrons will escape and more neutrons will participate in the nuclear chain, eventually leading to an inverse square law between density and critical mass. So, if you compress your fissile material 2 times its natural density, the critical mass is reduced to 16 kg, if you compress it 3 times, the critical mass is reduced to 8 kg. With a decent reflector like Beryllium, Tungsten Carbide or depleted Uranium, this number can be even further reduced. So, the amount of U-235 isn't really the main issue, particularly for an implosion device that can effectively compress uranium.

The French, in their nuclear test in early 60s in Algeria, did manage to compress uranium to over 3 times. This helped them achieve an impressive yield of 70 kilotons for a fission device (not boosted) with plutonium as its fissile material. However, you have to understand that compressing uranium/plutonium beyond 2.5 times becomes exponentially difficult and costly. The amount of pressure you need to apply for compression of U-235 or Pu-239 grows exponentially very fast and increasing pressure can make your core go under phase transition into liquid or gas.

So, I said all of this to say that Iran's 280 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium can be used for even 20 nuclear devices. But it depends on what Iran can achieve and what Iran plans to do with these devices. 20 devices, as tactical nukes, is a fart in a windstorm compared to what countries like the US or potentially Israel possess.

If Iran wants to build nuclear weapons, first of all, it will probably not have enough time to use its HALEU (20%) as it will take more than 6 weeks to convert that into circa 80%-90%. The video mentions a much lower timeframe, which is wrong considering Iran's current enrichment capacity. If we assume that Iran has an indefinite amount of time, then sure.

Secondly, Iran will get around 186kg of 90%-enriched uranium in less than a month. That's about 18 kg for each device. Now, these devices will all be tactical nukes. So, yes, 10 tactical nukes. But the video talks about "counter-value nuclear strikes". So, no. Not even close. If we assume that Iran has mastered the art of nuclear weapons design, 186 kg of 90%-HEU would give us fewer than 5-6 boosted fission devices of strategic value.

 

[Sultan Baybars]

They will kill Trump.

 

[The SC]

Urgent
Political advisor to the Iranian guide to NBC: Iran will abide not to make nuclear weapons ever..

- Iran will be committed to getting rid of its highly enriched uranium stocks in return of lifting the sanctions..

 

[The SC]

Political advisor to the Iranian guide to NBC: Iran will allow the supervision of the process in exchange for an immediate lifting of all sanctions

 

[SkippedPath]

Iranians not making nukes is brainless. And any deal with West is temporary as West wants it to be. Last time they made deal iran had to pour concrete into its nuke stations to demonstrate it has ceased operation. In return West was to normalize relations n lift sanctions. As soon as concrete dried West made new demands Iran resisted n they did not lift sanctions instead piled more.

Europeans n Americans are snakes n they cannot be trusted. I have lived in UK and interacted with thousands n had dealings with them in games. Game called RUST Console and despite best assurances from people they will not back stab me it always happens. I kind of let things role just to see if snake will bite me or not 95% u get bitten. That's a trait in Europeans n Americans share.

Iran should go for nukes. Israel having nukes is dangerous for Iran. Never comprise ur security, nor ever be at mercy of your opponents. Don't give up ur protection no matter what the consequence.

 

[FUB]

Trump humiliated the Iranian leadership in his speech in Saudi Arabia. Calling the obvious, the corruption and plundering of the nation's resources. While he praised his clients, Arab states, which he milked to the tune of one trillion Dollars, he did not mention that it was the US and Israel who did not back the Shah, their client. He also did not mention that it was the US who encouraged and armed Saddam, along with the USSR, and the entire Western bloc, in his war with Iran. That war was the catalyst for the militarization of Iran and its influence across the region.

Iran is a member of the NPT. Under the NPT, it has the right to enrich uranium. The regime is very ignorant to negotiate enrichment. The Shah made Iran a member of the NPT. They should negotiate the bomb, but not enrichment. This shows that the country is run by an oligarchy that does not care about the nation but its interests.

 

[FUB]

Here we go again
A big beautiful deal
A very special deal
Sounds like JCPOA 2.0 with a big difference , Americans can now invest in Iran.
No más el Gran Satán!
Then will come the Trojan horse
Within his term we may see
A big beautiful democratic Iran
With all of the usual color revolution
democratic Forces.
45 years of sanctions, multiple wars, trillions in lost revenue and we are right back to the same place .

"In Very Serious Negotiations": Crude Prices Tumble After Trump Says US Close To Nuclear Deal With Iran | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[BigMela2onin]

So Khamenei will sign a deal with Shaheed Soleimani's murderer and block Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons "forever." Undoubtedly one of, if not the worst leader Iran has ever had.

 

[The SC]

 

[The SC]

 

[ShapurII]

So Khamenei will sign a deal with Shaheed Soleimani's murderer and block Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons "forever." Undoubtedly one of, if not the worst leader Iran has ever had.

He ruined the best years of 3 generations of our people (and really turned the lives of all Iranians into hell for 15-20 years straight) to finally give up everything in a matter of 2 years.

 

[FUB]

He ruined the best years of 3 generations of our people (and really turned the lives of all Iranians into hell for 15-20 years straight) to finally give up everything in a matter of 2 years.

That is not even the worst of it; according to the NY Times, he plans to hand over the enrichment process to the US ( oversight) and sell enriched uranium to, Saudi Arabia, and UAE , which will never happen. It sounds like this regime at this pace to top the Gajar Dynasty but the truth may be something else.
Saudis, UAE, and Qatar just paid a one trillion dollar bribe to the US for Tech and Weapons that they will never use, and Iran gives away the nuclear technology.

Here is the reality after 45 years. There is no way to know where Iran would be had it not been through major war, regional wars, sanctions, and rampant corruption.
According to CHatGPT

Here's a side-by-side comparison of Iran's economic and quality-of-life indicators between 1978 and 2024, adjusted for inflation where applicable:

---

Iran: 1978 vs. 2024 – Economic and Social Indicators​

Indicator	1978	2024
GDP (Current US$)	~$90 billion (nominal)	$401.5 billion
GDP per Capita	$2,166.89	Data not specified
Total Exports	Data not specified	$114.99 billion
Inflation Rate	11.72%	31.7%
Unemployment Rate	Data not specified	7.6%
Life Expectancy	56.04 years	77.65 years
Adult Literacy Rate	36.52%	88.96%

---

Key Takeaways​

• Economic Growth: Iran's nominal GDP has increased significantly from 1978 to 2024.
• Exports: Export values have grown, reflecting changes in trade dynamics.Wikipedia+18GTI+18Reuters+18
• Inflation: Inflation remains a challenge, with rates higher in 2024 compared to 1978.
• Unemployment: Current unemployment rates are moderate, but historical data for 1978 is unavailable for comparison.
• Life Expectancy: There has been a substantial increase in life expectancy, indicating improvements in healthcare and living conditions.
• Literacy: Adult literacy rates have more than doubled, showcasing advancements in education.Macrotrends+1countryeconomy.com+1

Iran Proposes Novel Path to Nuclear Deal With U.S.​

Iranian officials said their foreign minister had proposed a joint nuclear-enrichment venture, involving Arab countries and American investment.

Iran has proposed the creation of a joint nuclear-enrichment venture involving regional Arab countries and American investments as an alternative to Washington’s demand that it dismantle its nuclear program, according to four Iranian officials familiar with the plan.
Iran’s proposal entails the establishment of a three-country nuclear consortium in which Iran would enrich uranium to a low grade, beneath that needed for nuclear weapons, and then ship it to other Arab countries for civilian use, according to the four Iranian officials and news reports.

A deal that would allow Iran to enrich uranium to 3.67 percent would bear similarity to the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers. But a major difference would be the on-the-ground presence of representatives from other countries — perhaps even the United States — to provide an extra layer of oversight and involvement.

The four Iranian officials said that unlike the 2015 nuclear deal, which had a 15-year expiration date, the joint venture plan would be permanent. That would allow Mr. Trump, who pulled the United States out of that deal, to argue that he had obtained significantly more from Iran than President Barack Obama did.

 

[ShapurII]

That is not even the worst of it; according to the NY Times, he plans to hand over the enrichment process to the US ( oversight) and sell enriched uranium to, Saudi Arabia, and UAE , which will never happen. It sounds like this regime at this pace to top the Gajar Dynasty but the truth may be something else.
Saudis, UAE, and Qatar just paid a one trillion dollar bribe to the US for Tech and Weapons that they will never use, and Iran gives away the nuclear technology.

Here is the reality after 45 years. There is no way to know where Iran would be had it not been through major war, regional wars, sanctions, and rampant corruption.
According to CHatGPT

Here's a side-by-side comparison of Iran's economic and quality-of-life indicators between 1978 and 2024, adjusted for inflation where applicable:

---

Iran: 1978 vs. 2024 – Economic and Social Indicators​

Indicator	1978	2024
GDP (Current US$)	~$90 billion (nominal)	$401.5 billion
GDP per Capita	$2,166.89	Data not specified
Total Exports	Data not specified	$114.99 billion
Inflation Rate	11.72%	31.7%
Unemployment Rate	Data not specified	7.6%
Life Expectancy	56.04 years	77.65 years
Adult Literacy Rate	36.52%	88.96%

---

Key Takeaways​

• Economic Growth: Iran's nominal GDP has increased significantly from 1978 to 2024.
• Exports: Export values have grown, reflecting changes in trade dynamics.Wikipedia+18GTI+18Reuters+18
• Inflation: Inflation remains a challenge, with rates higher in 2024 compared to 1978.
• Unemployment: Current unemployment rates are moderate, but historical data for 1978 is unavailable for comparison.
• Life Expectancy: There has been a substantial increase in life expectancy, indicating improvements in healthcare and living conditions.
• Literacy: Adult literacy rates have more than doubled, showcasing advancements in education.Macrotrends+1countryeconomy.com+1

Iran Proposes Novel Path to Nuclear Deal With U.S.​

Iranian officials said their foreign minister had proposed a joint nuclear-enrichment venture, involving Arab countries and American investment.

Iran has proposed the creation of a joint nuclear-enrichment venture involving regional Arab countries and American investments as an alternative to Washington’s demand that it dismantle its nuclear program, according to four Iranian officials familiar with the plan.
Iran’s proposal entails the establishment of a three-country nuclear consortium in which Iran would enrich uranium to a low grade, beneath that needed for nuclear weapons, and then ship it to other Arab countries for civilian use, according to the four Iranian officials and news reports.

A deal that would allow Iran to enrich uranium to 3.67 percent would bear similarity to the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers. But a major difference would be the on-the-ground presence of representatives from other countries — perhaps even the United States — to provide an extra layer of oversight and involvement.

The four Iranian officials said that unlike the 2015 nuclear deal, which had a 15-year expiration date, the joint venture plan would be permanent. That would allow Mr. Trump, who pulled the United States out of that deal, to argue that he had obtained significantly more from Iran than President Barack Obama did.

The joint venture is a genius idea, actually. This is the best possible solution for Iran's civilian program. We don't have enough uranium reserves to sustain a civilian program for a long time and the international powers, including China and Russia, will never allow Iran to have a civilian program as it requires an enrichment capacity of well over 500,000 SWU U/year.
This joint venture gives Iran access to natural uranium, money and technology. It gives us a valid reason to finally use Natanz and Fordow to their full capacity and reach over 1 million SWU U/year. But the problem is that Iran endured the world's harshest sanctions for nearly 20 years to finally reach this place where it's retreating from its positions one after another.

Look at any other example that went through the same process. China, Pakistan, India, even North Korea, they all finally went nuclear and eased tensions with the US and the world through a stronger position, the position of a nuclear nation. Only Iran didn't go nuclear and decided to reset its program once in 2015 and soon in 2025. And considering that Iran was absolutely betrayed by all signing parties in 2015, one wonders why the regime thinks this time is different when they have the same cards, and maybe even one fewer card to play (IR-40 reactor).

Some of the obligations that Iran has accepted under JCPOA are forever. For example, Iran is never able to reprocess plutonium, for any purpose, in the future. This was in JCPOA. And now they're going to accept the same thing for uranium enrichment beyond 3.67% in 2025.

I think it's unfair to compare this corrupt regime with the Qajars. The Qajars had been severely weakened after fighting with the Tsarist Russia and they had to deal with an ambitious British empire in the east and the south who saw weakening Iran in their favor, as well as an archfoe called the Ottomans. The Tsarist Russia was the world's leading military power at the time. They fought 4 rounds, each lasting several years. Had this regime fought with the US for even one month, it would've collapsed. Also, let's not forget that it was the Ayatollahs that worked the Qajars to fight the Russians in the first place.