Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[FUB]

I wonder, according to Mohsen Reyhani, did Iran do anything right? There is a single post generated that points to Iran's accomplishments. Typical characteristics of a paid shill and propagandist who peddles misinformation. We must have a counterbalance in this thread. No one is better than Pastaramis, who, even though he imagines a lot, ends with more plausible explanations than 140 words of misinformation rants. He is spot on that without access to NSA and military satellites, Israel could only dream.

 

[Homajon]

Iran Has a Nuclear Weapons Problem It Never Saw Coming

The U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear program have left Tehran with a difficult truth: having a bomb is not the same as having a credible deterrent.

nationalsecurityjournal.org

1) Irans missiles were not unsuccesfull. The absolute majority of missiles used were Shahab 3 and Ghadr, and they were very succesfull in their task: depleting Israels anti-missile stock.
The few more modern missiles used all hit their target.

2) The rest of the report can easily be countered: North Korea.

 

[Arash]

Pezeshkian defends possibility of talks with EU/USA, saying even if we rebuild our sites, Israel/US will just bomb them again so we need to reach a political resolution. and he says any talks must be approved by the government.

two takeaways:

1) IRI/hardliners use reformists as scapegoat while they decide and approve the policies behind the scenes (which does not excuse Pezeshkian's weak character and lack of leadership which frequently embarrasses Iran)

2) the military has failed to provide alternative options to the decision makers, meaning they have no choice but to pursue diplomacy and capitulate on our rights since we can't defend them militarily:



@ShapurII

Pezeshkoon is just our national Sleepy Joe, if he doesn't fart or burp publicly, then we may consider ourselves lucky.....

 

[Persian Gulf]

I wonder, according to Mohsen Reyhani, did Iran do anything right? There is a single post generated that points to Iran's accomplishments. Typical characteristics of a paid shill and propagandist who peddles misinformation. We must have a counterbalance in this thread. No one is better than Pastaramis, who, even though he imagines a lot, ends with more plausible explanations than 140 words of misinformation rants. He is spot on that without access to NSA and military satellites, Israel could only dream.

I particularly enjoyed his latest video where he said Iran gave the USA permission to fly through its airspace and bomb Fordow and Natanz

 

[Persian Gulf]

 

[Eşbah]

 

[tsunset]

Trita Parsi has no business or qualifications in telling people when something will start

 

[Eşbah]

I am not fully convinced that Israel is going to launch a second round either. I'm not claiming it's unfeasible, but I genuinely think that currently, such statements are intended to exert pressure on the Iranians, pushing them to give up at the negotiation table instead of on the battlefield.

 

[Eşbah]

Trita Parsi has no business or qualifications in telling people when something will start

I don't know the guy but his take seems plausible to me:

I have a piece in @ForeignPolicy
where I argue that a new Israeli-Iranian war is coming - perhaps as early as the end of August.

This is mainly driven by Israel's desire to turn Iran into the next Syria or Lebanon - countries that Israel can bomb with impunity and without any US involvement.

In its first attack, Israel had three objectives - drag the US into the war, decapitate the regime, and subdue Iran to Israel's military dominance (Syria option) - but only achieved the first.

But having started this campaign, it feels that it now must finish it before Iran rebuilds or acquires better air defenses. Otherwise, the balance will shift against Israel. In addition, it calculates it must act before the US enters the midterm election season.

This, of course, is the outcome that Iranian leaders want to deter. It played the long game in the first war, pacing its missile attacks as it anticipated a protracted conflict. In the next round, however, Iran is likely to strike decisively from the outset, aiming to dispel any notion that it can be subdued under Israeli military dominance.

And then there is the Trump factor...

 

[Persian Gulf]

Trita Parsi has no business or qualifications in telling people when something will start

he's giving his opinion. he's not an expert on military affairs but he knows his politics and he is a sensible guy.

 

[Jalz]

I don't know the guy but his take seems plausible to me:

I have a piece in @ForeignPolicy
where I argue that a new Israeli-Iranian war is coming - perhaps as early as the end of August.

This is mainly driven by Israel's desire to turn Iran into the next Syria or Lebanon - countries that Israel can bomb with impunity and without any US involvement.

In its first attack, Israel had three objectives - drag the US into the war, decapitate the regime, and subdue Iran to Israel's military dominance (Syria option) - but only achieved the first.

But having started this campaign, it feels that it now must finish it before Iran rebuilds or acquires better air defenses. Otherwise, the balance will shift against Israel. In addition, it calculates it must act before the US enters the midterm election season.

This, of course, is the outcome that Iranian leaders want to deter. It played the long game in the first war, pacing its missile attacks as it anticipated a protracted conflict. In the next round, however, Iran is likely to strike decisively from the outset, aiming to dispel any notion that it can be subdued under Israeli military dominance.

And then there is the Trump factor...

Israel will lose its intelligence advantage as well. Those intel assets in Iran took Iran by surprise, but now the situation is tense with the government deploying security forces. Israel was able to prevent missile attacks primarily because its moles in the IRGC told them where the missiles were going to be launched from(In my opinion). Hopefully, this time around, the government uses only its newer missiles and uses its cruise missiles this time.

 

[shapurzolaktaf]

Israel will lose its intelligence advantage as well. Those intel assets in Iran took Iran by surprise, but now the situation is tense with the government deploying security forces. Israel was able to prevent missile attacks primarily because its moles in the IRGC told them where the missiles were going to be launched from(In my opinion). Hopefully, this time around, the government uses only its newer missiles and uses its cruise missiles this time.

When I was in Istanbul, metro stations had security screenings before being allowed to enter. Iran must take more preventive security measures, manned and unmanned systems.
Further, all these military leaders, important scientists, I hope they live in gated communities?

 

[Persian Gulf]

Israel was able to prevent missile attacks primarily because its moles in the IRGC told them where the missiles were going to be launched from(In my opinion).

not plausible. Israel suppressed all the major SSM bases in the West by targeting the entrances. the location of the SSM bases are all known

 

[Persian Gulf]

When I was in Istanbul, metro stations had security screenings before being allowed to enter. Iran must take more preventive security measures, manned and unmanned systems.
Further, all these military leaders, important scientists, I hope they live in gated communities?

the remaining scientists have all been relocated but Israel is closely tracking their locations

 

[PakAl]

why is that the impossible? that was what they were designed to do. to fire missiles during war time. a huge amount of resources was invested over decades so that they could perform that one mission. they were supposed to destroy the enemy's airbases and turn their cities to rubble and fire 10,000 missiles at Haifa. you can't do that with 50 missiles per day (much less in the final days - 200 fired on day 1 skew that average number). since Iran's doctrine relies on cost effectiveness, you need to put aside 500-1000 'cheap' missiles just to deplete their interceptors.

drones over that large distance with countries acting as buffers and Israel's huge stockpile of Iron Dome interceptors will always struggle. believe we had 2-5 confirmed impacts from around 1000 drones fired.

Not sure why Iran never declared state of emergency and announced war with Israel, even if it lasted for 12 days. Iran must change this immediately, they need to make this attack by Israel as something very serious and not down play it. Iran must speak to its allies, then UN and make it clear if another Israeli attack takes place, Iran will respond with full force, they will target everything in Israel, including bases, ports, nuclear facilities etc. Some mind of deterrence must be set to protect Iran from attacks.