Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Persian Gulf]

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[ShapurII]

100,000 sounds like a crazy number but people really underestimate the number of munitions that Israel / the US drop on its enemies in wars.

in 6 weeks against Iraq the US dropped > 29,000 bombs and we don't have the luxury of dropping cheap gravity bombs over our enemy and relying on 80%+ success rate against a poor enemy with no real air defences.

Yes, and not just US and Israel. Any decent modern air force with proper funding is capable of doing that.

Missiles are low-cost per unit, but still inaccurate and they need to be produced in very large numbers to be as effective as an air force. It's just the wrong tool for the job. A jet fighter is reusable times and times again, making it eventually more cost-effective than relying on missiles alone.

 

[Nuffle]

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This was the core group responsible for planning Operation Red Wedding (elimination of senior Iranian military commanders) and Operation Narnia (elimination of nuclear scientists).

Training began in 2008 with Operation "Glorious Warrior," where more than 100 Israeli fighter jets conducted simulated flights to Greece. After years of being unable to directly attack Iran due to political restrictions, the fall of the Syrian regime created new opportunities for Israel to operate freely in regional airspace.

 

[Oldenwisdom...قول بزرگ]

The next 3-5 weeks is extremely important for Iran.
By the end of August, we will know for sure where Iran is heading.

I believe the second round will start before October.
Probably in mid-September.

And the Ayatollahs are not ready for the second round.

Unless something pressing there isn't a chance of this rupturing any time soon. Zion is exhausted and out of friends(read blackmailed and coerced) to meaningfully intervene on behalf of it...
It has much to do with other conflicts, primarily potential collapse of Ukraine. There is a good chance of a deal with Putin... which, pending the details will determine how much of can be delivered to zion to shore up its offensive and defensive capabilities.

Iran However faces a more significant and multidimensional threat from within...
Rumor mills and dearth of clarity create an environment ripe for select purposes and subversion.

 

[FUB]

I wonder, according to Mohsen Reyhani, did Iran do anything right? There is a single post generated that points to Iran's accomplishments. Typical characteristics of a paid shill and propagandist who peddles misinformation. We must have a counterbalance in this thread. No one is better than Pastaramis, who, even though he imagines a lot, ends with more plausible explanations than 140 words of misinformation rants. He is spot on that without access to NSA and military satellites, Israel could only dream.

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[Homajon]

Iran Has a Nuclear Weapons Problem It Never Saw Coming

The U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear program have left Tehran with a difficult truth: having a bomb is not the same as having a credible deterrent.

nationalsecurityjournal.org

1) Irans missiles were not unsuccesfull. The absolute majority of missiles used were Shahab 3 and Ghadr, and they were very succesfull in their task: depleting Israels anti-missile stock.
The few more modern missiles used all hit their target.

2) The rest of the report can easily be countered: North Korea.

 

[Arash]

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Pezeshkian defends possibility of talks with EU/USA, saying even if we rebuild our sites, Israel/US will just bomb them again so we need to reach a political resolution. and he says any talks must be approved by the government.

two takeaways:

1) IRI/hardliners use reformists as scapegoat while they decide and approve the policies behind the scenes (which does not excuse Pezeshkian's weak character and lack of leadership which frequently embarrasses Iran)

2) the military has failed to provide alternative options to the decision makers, meaning they have no choice but to pursue diplomacy and capitulate on our rights since we can't defend them militarily:

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@ShapurII

Pezeshkoon is just our national Sleepy Joe, if he doesn't fart or burp publicly, then we may consider ourselves lucky.....

 

[Persian Gulf]

I wonder, according to Mohsen Reyhani, did Iran do anything right? There is a single post generated that points to Iran's accomplishments. Typical characteristics of a paid shill and propagandist who peddles misinformation. We must have a counterbalance in this thread. No one is better than Pastaramis, who, even though he imagines a lot, ends with more plausible explanations than 140 words of misinformation rants. He is spot on that without access to NSA and military satellites, Israel could only dream.

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I particularly enjoyed his latest video where he said Iran gave the USA permission to fly through its airspace and bomb Fordow and Natanz

 

[Persian Gulf]

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[Eşbah]

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[tsunset]

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Trita Parsi has no business or qualifications in telling people when something will start

 

[Eşbah]

I am not fully convinced that Israel is going to launch a second round either. I'm not claiming it's unfeasible, but I genuinely think that currently, such statements are intended to exert pressure on the Iranians, pushing them to give up at the negotiation table instead of on the battlefield.

 

[Eşbah]

Trita Parsi has no business or qualifications in telling people when something will start

I don't know the guy but his take seems plausible to me:

I have a piece in @ForeignPolicy
where I argue that a new Israeli-Iranian war is coming - perhaps as early as the end of August.

This is mainly driven by Israel's desire to turn Iran into the next Syria or Lebanon - countries that Israel can bomb with impunity and without any US involvement.

In its first attack, Israel had three objectives - drag the US into the war, decapitate the regime, and subdue Iran to Israel's military dominance (Syria option) - but only achieved the first.

But having started this campaign, it feels that it now must finish it before Iran rebuilds or acquires better air defenses. Otherwise, the balance will shift against Israel. In addition, it calculates it must act before the US enters the midterm election season.

This, of course, is the outcome that Iranian leaders want to deter. It played the long game in the first war, pacing its missile attacks as it anticipated a protracted conflict. In the next round, however, Iran is likely to strike decisively from the outset, aiming to dispel any notion that it can be subdued under Israeli military dominance.

And then there is the Trump factor...

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[Persian Gulf]

Trita Parsi has no business or qualifications in telling people when something will start

he's giving his opinion. he's not an expert on military affairs but he knows his politics and he is a sensible guy.

 

[Jalz]

I don't know the guy but his take seems plausible to me:

I have a piece in @ForeignPolicy
where I argue that a new Israeli-Iranian war is coming - perhaps as early as the end of August.

This is mainly driven by Israel's desire to turn Iran into the next Syria or Lebanon - countries that Israel can bomb with impunity and without any US involvement.

In its first attack, Israel had three objectives - drag the US into the war, decapitate the regime, and subdue Iran to Israel's military dominance (Syria option) - but only achieved the first.

But having started this campaign, it feels that it now must finish it before Iran rebuilds or acquires better air defenses. Otherwise, the balance will shift against Israel. In addition, it calculates it must act before the US enters the midterm election season.

This, of course, is the outcome that Iranian leaders want to deter. It played the long game in the first war, pacing its missile attacks as it anticipated a protracted conflict. In the next round, however, Iran is likely to strike decisively from the outset, aiming to dispel any notion that it can be subdued under Israeli military dominance.

And then there is the Trump factor...

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Israel will lose its intelligence advantage as well. Those intel assets in Iran took Iran by surprise, but now the situation is tense with the government deploying security forces. Israel was able to prevent missile attacks primarily because its moles in the IRGC told them where the missiles were going to be launched from(In my opinion). Hopefully, this time around, the government uses only its newer missiles and uses its cruise missiles this time.