Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Oldenwisdom...قول بزرگ]

It has been almost two months since the cease fire .Below is my opinion what a realistic scenario looks like today and in the foreseeable future

based on open source :
Pre-war missile production
estimates were 50 per month

Post war-
Surge factor: 1.5×–2× increase is realistic if supply chains hold.
They could possibly double production to 100–120/month for several months if plants go 24/7 and stockpiles of materials are there .

Pre-war
Hypersonics: These are R&D-heavy and slow. At best maybe 6-10 month if everything is streamlined.

Post-war
12–15/month for maybe 3–4 months.
Longer term probably at 10-12 a month, unless support from (China, North Korea, Russia) fills in the gaps

Drones-
According to CSIS in a 90-day window, Iran could launch 600 to 5,000 Shahed drones.
Pre-war
500-1000
Post war production
1600-2000 per month

Air Defense -
We know it was poor but the next round will be much different.

To deal with drones and miniature cruise missiles:
Build dense SAM rings around Tehran, Natanz/Isfahan/ IRGC bases with Khordad‑15 / Raad / Talash

If ( I am doubtful) upgraded long‑range assets exist like more Bavar‑373 and replacement AD from China we could see shoot‑and‑scoot and multi‑engagement capacity and hopefully see downed manned air craft .

Improve early warning
Patch passive sensors with Ghadir/OTH radars . Deploy covert forces inside Iraq and in Syria.

Use more decoys and improve deception :
Move radars and SAMs more frequently to avoid detection by US sats , radiate less, use decoy emitters/launchers, and fall back on underground/covered sites

Offensive pressure:
If they are preparing, they should be able to launch 500-600 drones per day which will slow down the attacks and give Iranspace to launch 50-100 missiles per day, which is realistic, considering that they average 42 per day during the 12 day war.

The next round will be significantly more violent . If there’s any doubt from the axis of evil, Iran should use this opportunity to put the pedal to the floor with relentless build up of both offensive and defensive capabilities.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Which is why I speculated on zionist propaganda and grounded reality. Even though zionist have kept the war of words alive their true capacity is still fundamentally diminished.

I'd argue, however, that if or once the Ukrainian conflict ends, the resources can much easily be relocated to zion... that are under strain now... in this regard... there is still time. That however does not preclude sabotage or internal strife. With Iran fully cognizant of an impending conflict, round 2 will be particularly bloody. Though seeing the trailer in tel aviv they may not want an encore ... pointing towards an alternate approach... something less lethal to zion in return.

 

[Persian Gulf]

 

[Persian Gulf]

Russia supports Iran's interpretation of the EU's inability to legally invoke snapback

doesn't mean they won't do it, just means Russia won't recognise the UN sanctions

wonder what Iran's response will be, leaving the NPT as mentioned before?

 

[Shafagh]

Meanwhile India tested Agni-5 (5000 km) nuclear capable ICBM while Pezeshkian is telling Trump what can we do more saaarrr to please you?
Are we, with support of reformists, becoming the new "Saaarrr nation"?

India is a U.S. ally.

Russia supports Iran's interpretation of the EU's inability to legally invoke snapback

doesn't mean they won't do it, just means Russia won't recognise the UN sanctions

wonder what Iran's response will be, leaving the NPT as mentioned before?

What would be the point of leaving the NPT and not developing a nuclear weapon?

Can Iran even dash for one now with most of the infrastructure gone?

Staying in this grey area is the worst possible state to be in.

 

[Kyussis]

View attachment 141988


1. why shouldnt I question, the narrative spread by the entity media of fewer missiles actually hitting the target?
2. When IR can hit, a dual purpose site (which wasnt even the declared military site, let alone bunker), what stops IR from hitting their military bases?!!!
3. IR showed heavy restraint, question is why?!!!

Why do you think Iran hasn't hit Israeli bases? Is it because you haven't seen any images?

 

[Mighty_Dragon_Strike]

Why do you think Iran hasn't hit Israeli bases? Is it because you haven't seen any images?

no, i dont think that. I believe the opposite, read my post well enough as it identifies dualities

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

Urgent | Commander of Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters: Our armed forces are in full readiness and we are monitoring the enemy's movements with high precision.

 

[kastor ville]

Put Zarif in jail (for treason by accepting snapback mechanism), execute Rouhani and some other (reformist) oligarchs. This gives signal that other traitors might follow. Just like how politicians in Russia commit "suicide" or "jump" from buildings or poison them.

Allow non-islamist nationalist parties to participate in elections, by reforming guardian council and constitution. This way the Israeli-zionist game of Regime VS people will come to an end. The nagging of reformist traitors will also come to an end.

Unite the people around the government. If they activate the snapback mechanism, then either go for buying nuclear weapons from North Korea or create nucleair weapons in secret or enrich uranium there by investing in their nucleair infrastructure (proxy nucleair program).

If war happens destroy all energy infrastructure in the region and start a costly war to bankrupt Europe and GCC. Tell China and Russia we've no choice if you guys don't support us, this is what it is. We go down all together.

Now you can say yeah this is all so unrealistic, fantasy blabla. I would rather start a defensive adventure than becoming the next Libya or Iraq.

This is not a serious policy outline.....this is more venting. Albeit, your idea about having non-Islamists in the political process is a good one.

 

[shapurzolaktaf]

This is not a serious policy outline.....this is more venting. Albeit, your idea about having non-Islamists in the political process is a good one.

It's more a direction than policy outline, but hey It's Iran, seems no one cares about anything except their selfish interests and pockets.

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

Missiles Running Out: The U.S. Struggles to Replenish Stockpiles Depleted by Aid to Israel, The Pentagon is requesting $3.5 billion in “emergency funding” to purchase interceptors used by the U.S. military to defend Israel during its war with Iran.

Officials in Washington warn: the commitment to this ally is harming U.S. readiness, and “this cannot continue.”

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

 

[StrategicBear]

maybe there was a missile in western missile cities they could not use last time

"More advanced missiles" means that Fattah-2 next gen Hypersonic Missile hasn't been used yet...

In last war they only used Fattah-1 which is an old, "first-generation" Hypersonic that Iran used?

 

[Eşbah]

UAE is truly an enemy of all Muslims.

 

[kobra]

Looks like "Sitamger" September is coming for Iran. If Snapback gets activated, Iran should be prepared for a serious pounding by Israili Airforce.

 

[kastor ville]