Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds
- Thread starter Khorasan Black Flags
- Start date
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
nuclear file is in the hands of the SNSC not parliament, so this is not that relevant even if it's true, other than to put pressure on SNSC
ShapurII
Trusted Member
We have made nearly zero progress in semiconductors and metallurgy since early 2010s, it seems.
I think we might have over 10,000 missiles if we include SRBMs and AshBMs as well, but maybe that's just wishful thinking.
50,000-100,000 is just delusional. We all fell for the propaganda as you correctly pointed out. Some of us more, some of us less.
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
someone went through all the footage released by Israel of strikes against missile launchers
they assessed footage of 45 missile launchers being attacked (including 12 instances of duplicate footage being used by Israel). they say 9 were decoys/empty and 4 were only damaged. meaning only 24-33 active TELs were destroyed or damaged.
We know from footage of Iran's SSM bases that the IRGC-ASF likely has > 100 TELs in each base. So this is really an insignificant number apparently inflated by visual tricks for propaganda purposes. Not to mention that missile TELs are based on commercial trucks with upgraded hydraulics. They are not a bottleneck or hard to produce in any conceivable way.
the main unknown is whether Israel destroyed many more than they released footage for. but given they were releasing these videos so frequently and even went to such lengths to slightly distort videos to release them twice to inflate the perception of how many launchers were being hit, and also released footage hitting empty/decoy TELs, I would tend to believe they released footage of most if not all of the launchers they actually hit.
@ShapurII
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
what does this even mean?
ShapurII
Trusted Member
Confirmed. Two Iranian news outlets (reformist and conservative) have confirmed it.
کلید خوردن طرح فوریتی برای خروج از «انپیتی» در مجلس
نایب رئیس کمیسیون اصل ۹۰ مجلس از کلید خوردن تدوین طرحی فوریتی برای خروج کامل از (ان پی تی) در مجلس خبر داد و گفت این طرح فردا در سامانه مجلس بارگزاری خواهد شد تا در جلسات علنی هفته آینده مجلس روند قانونی جهت بررسی و تصویب را سپری کند.
www.entekhab.ir
طرح فوریتی مجلس برای خروج از «ان پی تی»
نایب رئیس کمیسیون اصل ۹۰ مجلس از کلید خوردن تدوین طرحی فوریتی برای خروج کامل از (ان پی تی ) در مجلس خبر داد.
mshrgh.ir
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
ShapurII
Trusted Member
ظریف: چیزی به نام «اسنپبک» نداریم، در برجام یا شورای امنیت به آن «مکانیزم حل و فصل اختلافات» گفته میشود
This is ridiculous. He still claims that snapback doesn't exist in the JCPOA lol
ظریف: چیزی به نام «اسنپبک» نداریم، در برجام یا شورای امنیت به آن «مکانیزم حل و فصل اختلافات» گفته میشود
ظریف گفت: اروپاییها سعی کردند یک توافق تهاتری قرن نوزدهمی با ایران ایجاد کنند. حتی این کار را نتوانستند انجام دهند. نمیدانم چطور میخواهند از این مکانیزم علیه ایران استفاده کنند. چیزی به نام اسنپبک نداریم. در برجام یا شورای امنیت به آن مکانیزم حلوفصل اختلافات گفته میشود.
www.entekhab.ir
BigMela2onin
Registered Member
He is a pathologically narcissistic.ظریف: چیزی به نام «اسنپبک» نداریم، در برجام یا شورای امنیت به آن «مکانیزم حل و فصل اختلافات» گفته میشودThis is ridiculous. He still claims that snapback doesn't exist in the JCPOA lol
ظریف: چیزی به نام «اسنپبک» نداریم، در برجام یا شورای امنیت به آن «مکانیزم حل و فصل اختلافات» گفته میشود
ظریف گفت: اروپاییها سعی کردند یک توافق تهاتری قرن نوزدهمی با ایران ایجاد کنند. حتی این کار را نتوانستند انجام دهند. نمیدانم چطور میخواهند از این مکانیزم علیه ایران استفاده کنند. چیزی به نام اسنپبک نداریم. در برجام یا شورای امنیت به آن مکانیزم حلوفصل اختلافات گفته میشود.
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
he is saying the word snapback does not exist in UNSCR 2231 / JCPOA and is a political term the West invented to sell the deal domestically. he is right about that. but the dispute resolution mechanism he talks about LEADS TO the 'snapback' of prior UNSC resolutions. so it's a distinction without a difference.ظریف: چیزی به نام «اسنپبک» نداریم، در برجام یا شورای امنیت به آن «مکانیزم حل و فصل اختلافات» گفته میشودThis is ridiculous. He still claims that snapback doesn't exist in the JCPOA lol
ظریف: چیزی به نام «اسنپبک» نداریم، در برجام یا شورای امنیت به آن «مکانیزم حل و فصل اختلافات» گفته میشود
ظریف گفت: اروپاییها سعی کردند یک توافق تهاتری قرن نوزدهمی با ایران ایجاد کنند. حتی این کار را نتوانستند انجام دهند. نمیدانم چطور میخواهند از این مکانیزم علیه ایران استفاده کنند. چیزی به نام اسنپبک نداریم. در برجام یا شورای امنیت به آن مکانیزم حلوفصل اختلافات گفته میشود.
ShapurII
Trusted Member
I know what he's talking about but there is no "dispute resolution mechanism" at all. It's not really a mechanism and it's not really dispute resolution either.
It's quite simple. Any of the global powers can accuse Iran of violating the deal and unless everyone agrees that Iran has not violated the deal, the sanctions will snap back.
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
the process is called dispute resolution mechanism but the effect of the 'mechanism' is what you describe. Zarif doesn't seem to recognise that concepts such as 'acting in good faith' or 'exhausting the dispute resolution mechanism' are subjective and unenforceable
ShapurII
Trusted Member
What about Article 37?
I mean if that's all that there is to it, there is no snapback mechanism. But I'm sure there is. It's probably in Article 37 or 38.
Immortals
Elite Member
If SnapBack goes into place:
Then the resolutions that covered these topics go back into effect:
- An arms embargo
- A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
- A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
- Authorization for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
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