Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Mehdipersian]

I think there are three main options

1) soft regime change --> pro-US internal IRI replacements take over (Trump's preferred scenario)

2) regime change -->

a) Reza Pahlavi somehow takes over and returns to Iran (seems very unlikely)
b) IRGC takes over (military state)
c) total chaos and civil war (modern Iran is destroyed and becomes Syria)

3) IRI capitulates and reaches surrender deal with US

4)
Iran continues with strength.

 

[Shags101]

I think there are three main options

1) soft regime change --> pro-US internal IRI replacements take over (Trump's preferred scenario)

2) regime change -->

a) Reza Pahlavi somehow takes over and returns to Iran (seems very unlikely)
b) IRGC takes over (military state)
c) total chaos and civil war (modern Iran is destroyed and becomes Syria)

3) IRI capitulates and reaches surrender deal with US

I think B is a likely option

 

[Shags101]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-joins-string-of-condemnations-of-haredi-attack-on-female-soldiers-in-bnei-brak/

Honestly I have always said this Arabs don’t really need to fight Israel they will destroy themselves from within in a couple of decades

 

[tsunset]

Unfortunately the Pahlavists really believe in what they say

They think that if IRI falls, they will peacefully return to Iran to live an easy life and everyone will be happy

 

[Mehdipersian]

This Western circus show has really become funny. If you can attack, we are waiting.

 

[ToqeLowkey]

Maybe fake news.

 

[ArmTwister]

 

[kastor ville]

member of Iran's negotiating team signals openness to US investment in Iran

I wish i could take credit for this one, but it was Trita Parsi that said it a couple of weeks back.

 

[kastor ville]

The negotiations will fail.....and Trump like most bullies is a p-ussy under that suit...he'll have to strike Iran some how to save face...Hopefully it won't be a full on war.
Again, the negotiations are not going to succeed. I mean look at the 2 guys doing the negotiating for the US.
What happens next is up to the White House. I hope he gets some good advice...because he could be sending the world economy into a recession.

 

[Meengla]

the problem is Trump wants this 3-5 year suspension of enrichment just to call off his war, and he isn't offering anything else, which is not really a negotiation

I really don't think Trump wants to attack Iran and to him not attacking is his 'offer'. The real matter is the Iranian missiles which Netanyahu wants gone.

Why on earth do you fantasize that IRGC have a nuke in its closet ?
If they really had, then why they don't have a deterrence? Why Israel attacked in june last year killed so many high command of Iranian miiltary, scientists and started attacking everywhere? Who on earth would be stupid enough to keep hiding nukes and not establish deterrence.

Right.
I can't believe people here still believe in the fantasies of Iranian nukes even with North Korea's help. No, ain't happening. Too late. Pakistan developed a powerful nuclear deterrence with at least some tacit appoval from the Washington and Pakistan's program started in January 1972! Iran never had the threat perception like Pakistan had/has from its neighbors.

I wish i could take credit for this one, but it was Trita Parsi that said it a couple of weeks back.

Trita Parsi is my number one resource for Iran-America relationship just like Max Blumenthal is for America-Israel relationship. Reuters is also reporting this and IF true then good news:

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-open-nuclear-deal-compromises-if-us-discusses-lifting-sanctions-minister-2026-02-15/

Feb 15 (Reuters) - Iran is pursuing a nuclear agreement with the U.S. that delivers economic benefits for both sides, an Iranian diplomat was reported as saying on Sunday, days before a second round of talks between Tehran and Washington.
Iran and the U.S. renewed negotiations earlier this month to tackle their decades-long dispute over Tehran's nuclear programme and avert a new military confrontation. The U.S. has dispatched a second aircraft carrier to the region and is preparing for the possibility of a sustained military campaign if the talks do not succeed, U.S. officials have told Reuters.

"For the sake of an agreement's durability, it is essential that the U.S. also benefits in areas with high and quick economic returns," foreign ministry deputy director for economic diplomacy Hamid Ghanbari said, according to the semi-official Fars news agency.
Iran has threatened retaliation against any U.S. attack but the official struck a conciliatory note on Sunday.
"Common interests in the oil and gas fields, joint fields, mining investments, and even aircraft purchases are included in the negotiations," Ghanbari said, arguing that the 2015 nuclear pact with world powers had not secured U.S. economic interests.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking at a news conference in Bratislava, said President Donald Trump had made it clear that he would prefer diplomacy and a negotiated settlement.
"No one's ever been able to do a successful deal with Iran but we're going to try," Rubio said.

 

[Bharatah]

The way I see it:

1) All out war leading to:
a)IRGC victory consolidation of power, American objectices not met with military failure.
b) American victory with a US viceroy in charge

2)
a) Internal shift of power with a different group given the chance to lead, this would have to be a neutralish group.
b)civil war

For me options 1a and 2a are more probable.

The US could militarily destroy allot of Iran but just like in Afghanistan, ,Yemen to some degree Iraq it failed geo-strategically and politically. Trumpy dont have the stomach for a long war either and a shock and awe wont work now given power has been devolved and autonomous command structures locally will be in place.

The US invaded Iraq in 1991, and the government was only overthrown in 2003. That's three American governments and trillions of dollars spent on war. And the most interesting thing is: the Iraq of the 1990s was only 5% of the military power Iran has today. I've said it before and I'll say it again: an open war against Iran is UNFEASIBLE in every sense. Twenty years ago, when Iran didn't have drones, hypersonic missiles, or missiles capable of reaching US and Israeli bases, the US already considered it unfeasible. Today it's even worse. The objective of globalist Zionism, therefore, is to overthrow the government through some kind of weakening/color revolution, but even this has proven complicated because Iran stopped a color revolution in less than 10 days!

 

[Kyussis]

Trump is an idiot....so what do we do? We must read him, and anticipate him....his actions, his thinking.
If it was up to me.....I would stop enrichment for 3-5 years, then I would sweeten the deal for him. Yes, sometimes you have to take a step back to take two forward at a later time.
I would sweeten the deal by telling him we would be open to US and Iran partnership in developing both our gas and oil fields.
I would also give him first rights to procure rare earth.......this guy doesn't know geopolitics, he knows real estate, the stock market and basically money. You give some deals on paper and he'll kick Netanyahu to the curb in a New York minute.
If we don't we're still in trouble economically....it may even get worse.
We need to be smart about this.
No BM negotiations, no giving up the enrichment forever, just a pause to calm nerves......let's be honest we didn't do shit with it anyway.

You still haven't learned. You will never break Donald Trump away from the Zionists who own your country, lock, stock and barrel.

 

[Kyussis]

Are they doing that Emirati dance?

 

[Takayoshi]

Some sources (Iran Int., IranWire) reporting that IRGC moved to seize assets of civilians who have backed the protests such as Saedinia and have arrested the billionaire owner.

With the IRGC listed as a terror organization by EU, how can they possibly survive and recover the rial?

After Khamenei, will Iran lead towards a military dictatorship under IRGC or will the Supreme leader give his power to the parliament, turning the Supreme leader position a symbolic role?

 

[Immortals]

I wish i could take credit for this one, but it was Trita Parsi that said it a couple of weeks back.

Anyone with a brain said this in Trumps first term. But Iran’s leadership refused because of Solemani’s assassination.

As I said, Iran’s leadership negotiates more like a scorned lover than a pragmatic shrewd Machiavellian state.