Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Pakistani Dragon]

... The destruction is painful, but they know that they have no other choice. It's either now, or never and this conflict is the best opportunity for them to extract maximum concessions and potentially permanent peace.

If they don't, the next war Iran is going to be fighting is with sticks and stones.

What if Iran is reduced to "fighting with sticks and stones" after this conflict?

With a cease-fire, Iran can do some damage assessment of the enemy, their will to fight another war, re-arm its military and assess it's own strategies.

Who knows, there could be so much global pressure on the US, that it will not be considered feasible for the US to restart the war.

Remember how Donald Trump cowed down to China after the Chinese restricted the export of rare Earth minerals to the US and other countries.

 

[Ali_Baba]

Hitting Israel’s petrochemical does very little strategically. They won’t be deterred. But I’m sure Iran will try. Iran hit Haifa badly in 12 war and has some smaller success hits during this war. Neither did much to stop Israeli aggression.

The wild card here is the last major oil player — Saudi Arabia that is still pumping an estimated 7MBPD and exporting 5MBPD thru the Red Sea. Halting that production will truly create a far greater energy crisis that will lead to the end of the war.

Tit for Tat with Israel won’t go anywhere. they won’t stop.

When you start destroying infrastructure that is worth tens of billions of dollars, that will deter. Iran has yet to do that. It didn't achieve anything of significance in the 12day war or now.

Maybe Iran should actually try it and see what happens?

 

[Immortals]

Iran is on the clock now. The longer this war lasts, the worse it will get for us. Iran cannot fight a war against the entire world economy for more than a few months.

Actually, the longer the war goes on the worse it is for global economy. I will spar you the economics and oil data, in 2 weeks the energy fallout will be felt worldwide. That is why Trump is trying to race to leave this war.

Even if war ends tomm and the strait is opened immediately, it will take 30-60 days for ships to reach their destinations and weeks to months for operational capacity to come back online for PGCC countries.

Thus the question now is how bad will the shock be?

Relax and trust the process. The signs from Iran point to position of strength. This is a country that for years quickly went for the off ramp any chance it was given. Now for the first time they are rejecting off ramps and you are worried. Makes no sense. This is the right move.

Let’s wait and see how it shakes out.

 

[That_Guy]

Iran once again rejects Pakistan’s proposal for a temporary ceasefire, demands permanent end to war instead:
View attachment 190750
Source: MSN
@Bratva @Watandar @That_Guy @M. Sarmad @Bilal @Persian Gulf

Rather than rejecting the proposal outright, it seems to be that they want an over all end to the war, and are willing to accept the other terms.

Its now a debate between temp ceasefire and permanent and guaranteed end to the war.

 

[BigMela2onin]

This is what I'm talking about. They damage gas turbines, we hit storage tanks. That's why deterrence is not established.

You're not going to be able to deter the jews with anything short of a nuke. It's just the position we are forced to play. Harden your heart, everything can be rebuilt, and if any People know suffering it is Iranians.

 

[Bilal]

Sadly yes.

100% probability vs not.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Hermes 450



2 Eitan AFV hit by FPVs

 

[Forsvaret]

With a cease-fire, Iran can do some damage assessment of the enemy, their to fight another war, re-arm its military and assess it's own strategy.

Hamas kept doing ceasefires with Israel until it was forced to give up fighting entirely under pressure from US and other Muslim countries aligned with it. That’s Israel’s long-term strategy with Iran too…

 

[Immortals]

When you start destroying infrastructure that is worth tens of billions of dollars, that will deter. Iran has yet to do that. It didn't achieve anything of significance in the 12day war or now.

Maybe Iran should actually try it and see what happens?

By such logic Ukraine should be in the Stone Age and have no lights on.

It’s very hard to permanently put a country’s energy installations out of commission for a long time.

People don’t understand this and think a bomb or two or three means game over on installation facilities that are the size of small towns.

 

[Meengla]

The only ones peddling this nonsense ("bakvas" in our vernacular) are the usual opponents of Pakistan here and elsewhere.

Overall a great post again by, my favorite PDF Pakistani!
Yes, the system is aligned with the population. You see, just now Pakistan decided to give back the billions to UAE because UAE had some specific expectations of Pakistan in this conflict, which the Pakistani 'system' could not accept. There is no sugar coating that's why Pakistan returned the money.
As to the quoted part: Well, there are the usual dozen odd Pakistanis who bring their domestic politics into every thread; while one is tempted to ignore them but they keep misleading non Pakistanis about Pakistan. They are, what I call, the Reza Shah Pahlavi Brigade of Pakistan. But I wish they stop at least in this very sensitive thread.

 

[Ali_Baba]

We have already showed too much restraint. It signals weakness. Israel responds to weakness by war crimes.

This is the flaw in Iran's war fighting doctrine, I am not convinced Iran has a doctrine from what I see both in the 12 day and now. Only military strategy they have had was to take out all the radars, beyond that, it all feels random and a problem with their mosaic war concept that needs more work to correct.

 

[Kharral]

When it concerns Israel, I agree with you 100%, but things start to get tricky when Saudi Arabia gets involved. It's sort of like a love triangle.

Also, Pakistan wants to, and has to, maintain good relations with the US and I don't blame you for that. It's only reasonable and fair to pursue your interests.

Pakistan’s relationship with Saudi Arabia & the wider Arab world have never been at the expense of Iran at a Strategic level. There might have been some episodes at the Tactical & operational level but never at the strategic level.

Our relationship with the US & Saudi was at its peak in the 1980s under Zia. There was immense pressure on Zia to deliver on Iran but he didn’t. Sure he made some blows at the tactical level, which he had to but he never went beyond that.

That should tell you all you need to know about Pakistans policy towards Iran.

 

[ShapurII]

Actually, the longer the war goes on the worse it is for global economy. I will spar you the economics and oil data, in 2 weeks the energy fallout will be felt worldwide. That is why Trump is trying to race to leave this war.

Yes, which is why it's bad for Iran. Because after a certain amount of time, a global consensus will be formed against Iran and we may get involved in a much more serious war than now with more countries fighting against us.

Our Strait of Hormuz card should not be overplayed. We are already allowing most countries to pass through the strait anyway, and some of them for free. This shows that we cannot afford to play this card indefinitely.

Even if war ends tomm and the strait is opened immediately, it will take 30-60 days for ships to reach their destinations and weeks to months for operational capacity to come back online for PGCC countries.

Thus the question now is how bad will the shock be?

It is highly likely that there will be an economic shock and global recession in the near future. I don't disagree with it.

Relax and trust the process. The signs from Iran point to position of strength. This is a country that for years quickly went for the off ramp any chance it was given. Now for the first time they are rejecting off ramps and you are worried. Makes no sense. This is the right move.

Let’s wait and see how it shakes out.

I am actually quite satisfied that we are rejecting off-ramps. This is the kind of war that we should fight it to the end, but we are going easy on Israel for some reason and it's dangerous.

 

[Homajon]

Indeed very important. Iran has outclassed American war propaganda.

"They've studied us"

 

[BigMela2onin]

By such logic Ukraine should be in the Stone Age and have no lights on.

It’s very hard to permanently put a country’s energy installations out of commission for a long time.

People don’t understand this and think a bomb or two or three means game over on installation facilities that are the size of small towns.

People choose to uncritically believe Katz's statements as true.