Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Persian Gulf]

It depends on the point of view defining the policy objectives.

Reducing the resources IGRC needs to develop its warfare capabilities is perhaps one of the goals that has been quite effective, otherwise Iran would have been a far more potent military force than it has shown itself to be, thus far.

They can slow Iran’s progress but they are not effective in making Iran change its policies

 

[lightning f57]

It is always a fool's errand to predict future prices. However, 3 years back, WTI was above $100 for over 4 months. How many even remember that? I don't see major impact beyond small general inflation. People will economize by avoiding wastage. Oil remaining above $100 for a long time, say a few years, is an excellent training to force society to think about life when oil runs out, which it must.

Its not been that long, economic effects don't occur suddenly.

 

[ShapurII]

I don’t think anyone seriously believes the rial will do anything other than lose value when Iran is in a war with two nuclear powers and subject to a naval blockade

Yemen didn't go through 70% depreciation of their currency in 6 months after it was bombed by both the US and Israel, similar to Iran. So, this is ridiculously false and wrong. The Islamic Republic is even less competent than a bunch of sandal wearing Bedouins in Yemen.

I am sure the U.S. is doing its best to engineer the currency depreciation and more riots, Bessent proudly admitted as much last time

Nonsense. The US has really very limited ability to manipulate the Iranian Rial as the Iranian Rial is not traded online or used outside of Iran, and the US has no large amount of money inside Iran to manipulate our currency. So, unless the US has agents inside the government, I cannot see how the US who has literally zero influence in our highly isolated economy can manipulate our currency. This is not the same situation as the British Pound and the Black Wednesday. Scott Bessent is taking credit for the stupidity of the Iranian policy makers while the US had absolutely nothing to do with it.

 

[VCheng]

They can slow Iran’s progress but they are not effective in making Iran change its policies

I can agree with that assessment, given that it shows that the economic sanctions do play a role in slowing down Iran's war capabilities quite effectively.

Iran has indeed shown great steadfastness in its "Death to USA" policy for nearly half a century and that determination is certainly admirable, no matter whether one thinks it is justified or not. At least Iran puts its money where its mouth is, proverbially speaking, of course.

 

[lightning f57]

The deal was likely: Yemenis will not close BabAlMandab so Saudis can export oil, in return Iran can get goods via Pakistan.

Lets make Gwadar great again

 

[Meengla]

Yemen didn't go through 70% depreciation of their currency in 6 months after it was bombed by both the US and Israel, similar to Iran. So, this is ridiculously false and wrong. The Islamic Republic is even less competent than a bunch of sandal wearing Bedouins in Yemen.

Yemen has nothing. No comparison with Iran. It was like right after the Americans left Afghanistan in August 2021, the Afghan currency was stronger than the Pakistani currency vs USD. But there was no comparison between the Pakistani and the Afghan economy; that bubble didn't last long.
Iran has a lot to lose than Yemen and as of now, due to this war, it is losing a lot in terms of its economy. We will see a reversal of the depreciation of Iranian currency once there is long term peace.

 

[Professor Jiang]

Its not been that long, economic effects don't occur suddenly.

Also imagine what could happen to the global economy if the Strait is closed at the same time the AI bubble bursts.

 

[ShapurII]

Yemen has nothing. No comparison with Iran. It was like right after the Americans left Afghanistan in August 2021, the Afghan currency was stronger than the Pakistani currency vs USD. But there was no comparison between the Pakistani and the Afghan economy; that bubble didn't last long.
Iran has a lot to lose than Yemen and as of now, due to this war, it is losing a lot in terms of its economy. We will see a reversal of the depreciation of Iranian currency once there is long term peace.

What's your point? What does that have to do with anything?
Houthis controlled the devaluation of the Yemeni Rial by managing the liquidity of their currency.

The Iranian currency will never appreciate against the USD as long as the IR is following the same monetary policies. It hasn't happened in the last 47 years and it won't happen while our economic policies are the same either.

Very soon, we will see massive protests. The only difference is that this time Israel and the US have bombed the police in Tehran, and anti-riot forces. The US and Israel hit nearly every major police station in Tehran during this war. Iran is getting closer to civil war step by step and Iran's currency devaluation is the fuel for that.

 

[Meengla]

What's your point? What does that have to do with anything?
Houthis controlled the devaluation of the Yemeni Rial by managing the liquidity of their currency.

Again, no comparison between Iran and the Yemenis. I thought I had made my point above. BTW, it was you who brought up Yemen first vs Iran.

Very soon, we will see massive protests. The only difference is that this time Israel and the US have bombed the police in Tehran, and anti-riot forces. The US and Israel hit nearly every major police station in Tehran during this war. Iran is getting closer to civil war step by step and Iran's currency devaluation is the fuel for that.

We will see when your 'very soon' materializes. I doubt that. Maybe your 'very soon' will come in year 2050?

 

[ShapurII]

Again, no comparison between Iran and the Yemenis. I thought I had made my point above. BTW, it was you who brought up Yemen first vs Iran.

You have no point. Obviously I did that, because Yemen also fought both the US and Israel. So, it is relevant.

We will see when your 'very soon' materializes. I doubt that. Maybe your 'very soon' will come in year 2050?

Everything I have said since 2015 has materialized without a single exception. When people here laughed at the possibility of a direct military engagement with the US, I predicted it would happen right after the JCPOA ends and the Europeans bring back all UNSC sanctions on Iran. Just give it a few more weeks or months, it will materialize as usual. Keep this comment bookmarked.

 

[Watandar]

Quwa highlighted an excellent point in its recent podcast.
Iran has habit of firing missiles on its neighbors. Pakistani leadership thinks by getting goodwill of IRGC will somehow keep Pakistan safe but that's ridiculous approach.

It's Taliban-2 approach all over the place.

The US has attacked every country in the Mideast and south Asia, directly or indirectly via war, coups, sanctions, propaganda, armed groups and cyber attacks. Why does Pakistan keep chasing America then ?

I disagree with Quwa analysis. Iranians will remember who helped them in their time of need for generations, just like the Turks remember Indian Muslims helping them after WW1. Pakistan tends to get the credit for that from Turks even though it wasn't even a country at that time.

 

[Meengla]

Everything I have said since 2015 has materialized without a single exception. When people here laughed at the possibility of a direct military engagement with the US, I predicted it would happen right after the JCPOA ends and the Europeans bring back all UNSC sanctions on Iran. Just give it a few more weeks or months, it will materialize as usual. Keep this comment bookmarked.

Okay, so the 'very soon' is going to be 'a few more weeks or months' but you forgot to put caveats like of the usual 'IFs' and 'Buts'. We shall see. I don't see the uprising you are talking about and I gave my reasons above against any uprisings.

 

[Master Chief]

Pakistan tends to get the credit for that from Turks even though it wasn't even a country at that time.

Neither was India. Always important to remember.

 

[Olympus81]

From my perspective, Iran’s leadership is losing the plot.

One can understand having their leadership assassinated and being bitten twice prior to this.

But this silence is absolute madness. The SoH is blocked by IRGC, and beyond that the USN has enacted a blockade.

The move will only hurt Iranians and serve no purpose. Negotiating and reaching an amicable solution is a net positive for Iran at the moment. There are no good options, but to negotiate, take stock of the situation, prepare and come back stronger.

 

[lightning f57]

Also imagine what could happen to the global economy if the Strait is closed at the same time the AI bubble bursts.

There is a third a trinity which is also brewing, super El nino. If that occurs later this year as being predicted by many scientists we could have severe droughts in hot dry areas, flooding, very powerful hurricans across North Americas, severe rain and cold across Europe.

Add high fuel prices, inflation, food shortage, economic pressures, AI bubble burst and we are looking at a very dire scenario. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.