Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

Also imagine what could happen to the global economy if the Strait is closed at the same time the AI bubble bursts.
There is a third a trinity which is also brewing, super El nino. If that occurs later this year as being predicted by many scientists we could have severe droughts in hot dry areas, flooding, very powerful hurricans across North Americas, severe rain and cold across Europe.

Add high fuel prices, inflation, food shortage, economic pressures, AI bubble burst and we are looking at a very dire scenario. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.
 
But this silence is absolute madness. The SoH is blocked by IRGC, and beyond that the USN has enacted a blockade.
The move will only hurt Iranians and serve no purpose. Negotiating and reaching an amicable solution is a net positive for Iran at the moment. There are no good options, but to negotiate, take stock of the situation, prepare and come back stronger.

They are not silent. Proposals have been sent back and forth via Pakistan. Just a few days ago, Trump said something like 'I have seen their recent proposal. Much better but not enough'.
The gaps have been narrowed but sadly not enough. Yet!
 
Iran is hoping for $200 / barrel and then what?

Historically, if oil goes to that level, the volume of barrels exported goes drastically down and the world goes into recession. And going back to previous volumes take even longer.

The Saudis and UAE have contingency infrastructure planned for exactly this situation, although not to the extent where they can resume exports at normal levels.

To think that they can sustain this situation and extract maximum profits is over simplification.
 
So the morons with their "air superiority" are now about to deploy for use more expensive missiles to hit targets which only a tactical nuke can take out. Level of inept thinking by this admin and military brass is mind boggling.

I think they want a faster reaction cycle to target launchers than what their airforce can manage, or other ground based platforms like HIMARs.

Iran's launchers and shoot and scoot, so you have to be quicker to target them while they are being moved into launch positions and this may help the Americans in that. imho.
 
I think they want a faster reaction cycle to target launchers than what their airforce can manage, or other ground based platforms like HIMARs.

Iran's launchers and shoot and scoot, so you have to be quicker to target them while they are being moved into launch positions and this may help the Americans in that. imho.
There aren't hundreds or thousands of Dark Eagles to accomplish any such mission. This is more hopium and copium from a defeated administration that is in denial.

I expect them to keep up their blockade for another month and then may come to their senses at the end of May after massive spikes in energy, inflation and Treasury bond yields.
 
Iran is hoping for $200 / barrel and then what?

Iran wants to demonstrate that attacking it, results in a economic nuclear bomb going off and on that front it is doing fine.

Iran does not care if the global economy crashes and burns, because Iran is sooo sanctioned to the high eyeballs, and they have "no vested interests" in the health of the global economy.
 
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Iran wants to demonstrate that attacking it, results in economic nuclear bomb going off and on that front it is doing fine.
Iran does not care if the global economy crashes and burns, because Iran is sooo sanctioned to the high eyeballs, and they have "no vested interests" in the health of the global economy.

Interestingly, Israel too doesn't care much about the global economy! The two main belligerents of this conflict!
 
But they have indeed demonstrated impressive missile and drone capabilities as a result of the choices made by its leaders.

Certainly they have shown much much better accuracy than Saddam's scuds when hitting nearby targets (such as gulf bases) but their far off targeting is still questionable.
 
The Saudis and UAE have contingency infrastructure planned for exactly this situation, although not to the extent where they can resume exports at normal levels.

Exactly. UAE is exporting 1.8 million barrels a day since the war has started and SOH blocked. Its lower than 3 million the usual quota, but their revenues have not impacted a lot because of high oil prices.

While Iran is choked because of US blockade.

uae now intends to export 5 million barrels down the road with more pipelines being built. Targeting a whole lot of wealth in coming years.
 
Exactly. UAE is exporting 1.8 million barrels a day since the war has started and SOH blocked. Its lower than 3 million the usual quota, but their revenues have not impacted a lot because of high oil prices.

While Iran is choked because of US blockade.

uae now intends to export 5 million barrels down the road with more pipelines being built. Targeting a whole lot of wealth in coming years.

if Iran is attacked again, and its infrastructure and oil facilities are attacked, then UAE has given Iran the perfect opportunity to destroy all of UAE's oil infrastructure?
 
NY Times article. Reminds me of what the brilliant American retired official Matthew Hoh said in Dialog Works yesterday: Matthew suggested to his boss a $3000 metal detector to counter enemies to which his boss said something like 'That's too low an amount. We have a budget to blow up'. Reminds me of my own state job of the past. The management had to blow up the entire money on yearly basis on useless stuff or they won't get that money next year. So nice, fine office furniture could be replaced--just one example. Haha.


On paper, the war in Iran should not be much of a contest. The United States spends around $1 trillion a year on its military, more than 100 times as much as Iran. That money buys a vastly larger Air Force and Navy, as well as advanced weapons technologies that Iranian generals can only dream about.

In the war’s early days, the mismatch played out as one might expect. American forces destroyed much of the Iranian military. Now, however, the contest looks less one-sided. Iran has taken control of the Strait of Hormuz, and its missiles and drones still threaten America’s allies in the region. While President Trump seems eager for a negotiated truce, Iran’s leaders do not. Somehow, the weaker nation is in the stronger negotiating position.

That reality exposes the vulnerabilities in the American way of war. Tactical success has not yielded victory. Mr. Trump’s recklessness in conducting the war is one reason. But the problem is bigger than any single commander in chief. The United States has left itself unprepared for modern war.

America has spent hundreds of billions of dollars on ships and planes that are good at defeating competitors’ ships and planes but ineffective against cheaper, mass-produced weapons. The American economy does not have the industrial capacity to produce enough of the weapons and equipment it does need. And the country has struggled to fix these problems because of a sclerotic government and a consolidated defense industry that resists change.

Three months before Mr. Trump attacked Iran, we warned that the United States was at risk of being overmatched in the wars of the future. The last two months have shown that alarm was justified. The war in Iran, unwise as it is, should serve as a warning about the rising threats to American security and an incentive to fix them.
 
Funny you say this, because the vast majority of experts (including economists, IR folk, and military strategists) all say that time is on Iran's side.
Need to thread limit this guy, that other brazilian, and that one guy org*sming at sunken aircraft carriers in the beginning of the war.
 

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