Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[ShapurII]

You have a limited imagination, my friend.....
30% of the oil and 20% of the gas of the world is coming from that little area. If you had an extensive knowledge of other things besides geopolitics, you'd know that the entire western world's economy is teethering... And the last thing they need is an energy shock. So while you guys bicker, about what did iran do? How many americans are israelis died...and other ridiculously circular arguments. I don't know how many times I have to remind you folks, during the twelve day war, two nuclear powered countries attacked iran, decapitated our military leadership, attacked the missile bases.... Yet somehow the iranians were able to regroup and hit back and do some serious damage to israel. But it's not all good... Because you guys are concentrating on body counts. The fantasy part I keep talking about is the fact that you think we can go toe to toe with a superpower and a country that's backed by a superpower..... And not to mention the entire western world. That's what I find funny.

How do you know there will be an energy shock for sure?
How do you know they haven't stored enough oil for this day to control the initial shock?
Most importantly, why do you think the US would care about European economies more than her own profit?

They have Venezuela now. The US is one of the world's largest producers of oil now.
They attacked Iran pre-emptively and the effect on oil and energy market was minimal and lasted only 2 days.

 

[kastor ville]

How do you know there will be an energy shock for sure?
How do you know they haven't stored enough oil for this day to control the initial shock?
Most importantly, why do you think the US would care about European economies more than her own profit?

They have Venezuela now. The US is one of the world's largest producers of oil now.
They attacked Iran pre-emptively and the effect on oil and energy market was minimal and lasted only 2 days.

Because I have their entire playbook....would you like me to post if for you?

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-urges-china-dissuade-iran-closing-strait-hormuz-2025-06-22/

 

[Falcon29]

The region is changing. Iran + Hezbollah/AoR (exception being Houthi's) are going towards normalization. Iran because pressure on government. It may even fall. Hezbollah will because there is no stomach amongst Lebanese Shias to fight more with Israel.

Saudi Arabia + Qatar+ Turkey are going to move away from normalization into confronting Israeli policies in the region. They have no choice but to. We're seeing it in Yemen, now in Libya, tomorrow in Sudan/Somalia.

Gaza is stuck in its situation trying to survive next few years. Gaza won't normalize with Israel it's being occupied forcibly.

 

[ShapurII]

Because I have their entire playbook....would you like me to post if for you?

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-urges-china-dissuade-iran-closing-strait-hormuz-2025-06-22/

Have you found their playbook through published articles online?

 

[Falcon29]

Iran does not have credible military deterrent against Israel.

If they get attacked again Iran will perform worse than 12 day war.

They are not going to attack to give chance for protests to gain momentum and see if regime will normalize with Israel to attain some semblance of sanctions relief.

 

[kastor ville]

Have you found their playbook through published articles online?

Why does that matter? Lol...how many different ways do you think it will play out? 5th fleet has mine sweepers nearby...so you will have to make sure they're impeded. Who cares if iran is an all out war? They will dispatch warships....ask our resident experts about out maritime missiles develop for exactly such a task. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have built up backup supply pipes.... If Iran is to deploy scorched earth tactics it must take those out too. As long as iran doesn't bomb the American bases and go head to head with the US, Iran can project tremendous power in this regard.

 

[ShapurII]

Why does that matter? Lol...how many different ways do you think it will play out? 5th fleet has mine sweepers nearby...so you will have to make sure they're impeded. Who cares if iran is an all out war? They will dispatch warships....ask our resident experts about out maritime missiles develop for exactly such a task. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have built up backup supply pipes.... If we are to deploy scorched earth tactics we must take those out too. As long as we do not bomb the American bases and go head to head with the US, Iran can project tremendous power in this regard.

Didn't we try this idea against Iraq and the Tanker War happened? The US will intervene militarily if oil transfer is disrupted.
So, we cannot really project power in the region without going head to head with the US.

 

[kastor ville]

Didn't we try this idea against Iraq and the Tanker War happened? The US will intervene militarily if oil transfer is disrupted.
So, we cannot really project power in the region without going head to head with the US.

False equivalency....Iran was weak and unarmed during Praying Mantis. This is not then.
Here's a snippet of what could happen to the energy markets
For this to be successful, iran will have to follow through...no half measures. This strategic petroleum reserve in the us can only last 2 weeks or so..... Even then the cost to the global economy would be in the multi trillions of dollars. Now, that's the kind of war I would like to avoid if I was a leader of a western nation.

What Happens If Iran Closes the Strait of Hormuz?

The Strait of Hormuz acts as the main artery through which around 20% of the world's oil for trade and more than 30% of global liquefied natural gas are transported each day.

moderndiplomacy.eu

With all of this said, i still don't think there's an attack Imminent... I operate on logic, it has to make sense for the aggressor to attack. I may be blind, but I don't see it right now... I will believe it when the news breaks. And believe me, I will be the first one to say I was wrong.

 

[ShapurII]

False equivalency....Iran was weak and unarmed during Praying Mantis. This is not then.
Here's a snippet of what could happen to the energy markets
For this to be successful, iran will have to follow through...no half measures. This strategic petroleum reserve in the us can only last 2 weeks or so..... Even then the cost to the global economy. It would be multi trillions of dollars. Now, that's the kind of war I would like to avoid if I was a leader of a western nation.

What Happens If Iran Closes the Strait of Hormuz?

The Strait of Hormuz acts as the main artery through which around 20% of the world's oil for trade and more than 30% of global liquefied natural gas are transported each day.

moderndiplomacy.eu

What would you do if the US goes for a disproportionate response?
I think you need more imagination too because you are only imagining scenarios where things go well according to our plans.

 

[kastor ville]

What would you do if the US goes for a disproportionate response?
I think you need more imagination too because you are only imagining scenarios where things go well according to our plans.

So now you think that we're dealing with an adversary that deals in logic and proportions? Have you been watching the news lately? Sorry, but they mean to destroy and fragment our ancient nation

 

[ShapurII]

So now you think that we're dealing with an adversary that deals in logic and proportions? Have you been watching the news lately? Sorry, but they mean to destroy and fragment our ancient nation

So, let me see if I understand you clearly. You're saying that we should go suicidal and get Tehran nuked or what?

 

[kastor ville]

So, let me see if I understand you clearly. You're saying that we should go suicidal and get Tehran nuked or what?

And it looks like you're back in fantasy land again.
Nuked for what? Explain this.... What defense doctrine would allow the United States or anyone else to nuke a country that is preemptively attacked and defending itself?

 

[ShapurII]

And it looks like you're back in fantasy land again.
Nuked for what? Explain this.... What defense doctrine would allow the united states or anyone else to nuke a country that is preemptively attacked and defending itself?

What defense doctrine allows the US to kidnap another country's president and beat his wife?

 

[mangekyo]

Whatever scenario you guys bring up is irrelevant. Nothing beats the Epstein files. Netanyahu owns US for 3 more years.

 

[ResurgentIran2]

Iran does not have credible military deterrent against Israel.

If they get attacked again Iran will perform worse than 12 day war.

They are not going to attack to give chance for protests to gain momentum and see if regime will normalize with Israel to attain some semblance of sanctions relief.

Thats just speculation on your part. No evidence of Iran moving towards normalization with Israel.

But what we have seen with our very eyes is Syria under Jolani (which you seem to have no problem with) openly talking to and thereby legitimizing/normalizing the genocidal state.

Cognitive dissonance on an order of magnitude times 100.