SolarWarden
Trusted Member
attacks are not imminent
I've been saying this for days now. Orange man is just rocking the Iranian boat and getting a feel before he actually does it.
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attacks are not imminent
attacks are not imminent
We are more than capable to put down insurgents, armed or otherwise. What worries me is the opportunity given to the enemy if the central government falls apart. Then they can do whatever they want without worrying about the consequencesNo they are going to adopt the Ukraine/Syria/Libya model. They are going to drop weapons to Kurds/Balouchis/Arabs and have a civil war.
Just wait and see how many terrorist Groups magically form overnight inside Iran.
The only thing that has kept this country from a civil war is that guns are banned in Iran among the population. And while in recent years people have been getting their hands on guns…it’s mostly pistols. You cannot have a revolution with handguns and hunting rifles.
So the first task will be to bomb and weaken the security apparatus then funnel weapons to militant groups inside Iran to create havoc. Than Iran will be fighting fires inside its own country.
Then will come the “no fly zone” to protect these militants from Iranian Air Force.
Do not underestimate the extent to which Israel is ready to go now that it has Iran backed into the corner.
People forget how important one world order is to Israel.Exactly.
People don’t see that the Cold War has started again.
China is going to the moon. And suddenly after 50 years of not going to the moon, America has announced it wants to also go back to the moon.
Why?
Because it’s American Capitalism vs Chinese Quasi Communism.
America has to show the world it can still do great things and go to the moon and that the China model is not better.
Taking out Venzenula and Iran is taking out China’s energy sources. Then will come Russia. CIA/MI6 Protests will emerge again like they always do.
If U.S. succeeds in getting a new government in Russia post Putin. That means all of China’s energy partners no longer are independent.
China cannot count on the Arabs. They will refuse to sell China oil once Europe/US masters tell them not too.
So these are long term chess matches being played against Russia and China.
These are the last two countries standing in the way of the U.S. Imperial Empire from controlling the entire world. US would be the first empire in human history to have full control of the earth with no adversaries if it gets rid of China, Russia, and Iran.
People forget how important one world order is to the U.S.
See, I don't think your perspective ever changed. You stated that when Soleimani died you pushed for Iran to be more offensive, no you didn't. You absolutely didn't. What you did was you criticized the response after it was done. Now you should be able to tell the difference between the two.Listen to yourself. Emotional. Unhinged and sprouting nonsense.
What grandiose ideas have I sprouted? To have a spine? To be pragmatic? To not have your head in the sand and think you can flatten the world with missiles? That’s grandiose?
Like it or not, a group of us on here warned the delusional crowd of the dangers and we were met with ridicule and scorn.
When I pointed out our lack of response in Syria for years at setting up deterrence and was drowned out by the “everything is awesome crowd”. Was that grandiose?
When I said we should go on the offensive after Solemani and everyone was happy with some concussion soldiers. Was that grandiose?
When I said Post- October 7th when Hamas dragged the entire AoR into a do or die battle, was the last chance Iran had to fight on its own terms before enemy brought the war to us? Was that grandiose?
When I said we need more air defense systems because there is no way our current airspace is secure with the S-300 order. And that Bavar was not ready. People said Bavar-373 is all we need and we don’t S-400 or Chinese system. Was that being grandiose?
It’s okay to admit you got duped by propaganda. Everyone on here did to some extent including myself.
Nobody on here had a plan. Everyone just wanted to resist the U.S. forever. Easy to say when all of us are abroad. I am not sure when the last time you went to Iran was, but when I went last year and sanctions were crushing the country.
People were digging out of trash at night to find stuff to sell. Trash filled the street from people going thru it. Seeing kids with their parents digging thru the trash with their parents at 11 pm at night, changed your perspective. It was clear we weren’t winning and we were in fact heading towards implosion.
The currency has dropped since then from 50,000 to 150,000! Think about that second.
Everyone on this forum is sitting abroad and telling people in Iran how to live. It’s absurd and childish.
There is no vision for a future Iran at this point. Because the time for change was years ago. But the current plan by this leadership for the last 5 years was:
NO NUKES
NO NEGOTIATIONS
NO WAR
Did they think America/Israel were going to come one day and give Iran everything it wanted? Did they really think America would collapse like Rome in Khamenai’s lifetime?
The one thing I do know is outside of China coming in and giving us security guarantees….we have to negotiate with the U.S. and unfortunately we lost most of our cards if not all of them because this leadership was anti conflict for last 10 years.
If you don’t negotiate you will implode. Whether Khamenai negotiates or IRGC military led government or some transitional government. So that is the only option now. Negotiate. No grand plan. No vision. No nothing.
As always the Pakistani bros think US is Thor or Iron Man....do you think they ever sit around the table and discuss what iran can do to them? Have you thought about the possibility of the trillions of dollars of oil and gas price shock that they will have to endure just to take out an non-threat state? We are not a threat to the united states.... We are a threat to israel. At some point the US we'll ask itself, is it worth it?If full Usa and Israeli airstrikes like before, Iran will respond and attack Israel and Usa bases around the region. Israel probably wants Iran to strike GCC bases so enemity can be created, with regarding attacks on Israel no doubt Iran will cause big damage but Israel/Usa will try to finish Iran means to attack within a few weeks, after this Iran will be sitting ducks.
UAE snakes
See, I don't think your perspective ever changed. You stated that when Soleimani died you pushed for Iran to be more offensive, no you didn't. You absolutely didn't. What you did was you criticized the response after it was done. Now you should be able to tell the difference between the two.
The axis of resistance plan, to encircle Iran's regional adversaries was a plan that was put into motion and executed by General Soleimani. After he was gone the whole thing fell apart because our Generals were not so much as visionary or a strategic genius as Soleimani was.
That doesn't mean that the plan itself was terrible. It wasn't, we failed to sustain it. And we failed big time.
When Hezbollah was being pummeled Iran should have immediately attacked Israel pre emptively , that would have been a deterrence. Instead the leadership hesitated and we let hezbollah be decimated and Nasrallah killed.
We let Assad get rolled over and didn't intervene.
You mentioned October 7 and stated that it was the time Iran had to fight on its own terms. What terms? There were never any terms. Man, there was only one thing Iran could have done, and that was to fight. Fight for its life, from right there and then. If you are even slightly aware about the nature and philosophy of the western establishment and neo colonialists you would know that the most fundamental aspect of their nature is that they can not be trusted.
Out of all the nations of the world, that including Russia and China, Iran is the one nation that can't ever align with the modern colonialist west except for to bow down completely, not even for the sake of progress even, but to be decimated and turn to a rubble state like Libya or worse.
I asked you a question. What now? What if the system collapses?
Under what realistic scenario do you see Iran not become an absolute failed state, things become 100 times worse than how they are right now. If there's a way out of this other than to unite and fight, then tell us. Since, you are such a genius who always complains, uncover this riddle for us
It has been existential for 10 years. The global legitimacy of this current leadership is gone at this point. China and Russia are very quiet. Arabs are very quiet. This isn’t 1950s - 1980s where you can wipe out rioters and clean your image over night. Not in the day of social media.
Even if the current leadership survives the riots and kinetic blows Trump has planned, it will be isolated globally. The economic situation cannot be changed without negotiations with the U.S.
At the minimum some cosmetic leadership makeover, where Khamenai steps down and a transition government takes over compromised of bureaucrats and pragmatists and former IRGC.
Sanctions need to come off one way or another. I don’t see the U.S. ever negotiating with Iran while Khamenai stays in power.
Lighting fire to U.S. bases doesn’t change the fact the economy in Iran is dead as long as it stays under sanctions and foreign capital cannot enter the country.
My question is to you and others here is, can't Iran follow the same approach that enabled Russia to beat the sanctions that the West imposed on them after the outbreak of the Ukrainian war? Basically ignoring the SWIFT banking system and deal with China, Russia and others who are willing to trade with Iran while basing their trade on their currencies or perhaps gold and silver.
What you're saying sounds like a fantasy story straight out of a Hollywood movie script. All countries worsened after invasions, agreements, or capitulations: Cisjordania, Libya, Syria, Iraq, Sudan, Yugoslavia (which split into 9 countries), and many others. Those who fought to the end survived: Vietnam, which is now prosperous and independent.No I did not. At the time I through Iran was going to war. Solemani was #2 most liked man in Iran and important man after Khamenai.
And when I saw the feeble response and Khamenai saying this was just a “slap” and the real response is coming “later”, I realized this government has no will to fight whatsoever. Then we had to sit thru all the propaganda of them going after all the people who were involved with that decision.
That’s not what the consensus was on here. When criticized why Solemani was allowed to even leave Iran given his importance but everyone here said “next man up” and I specifically said on this very forum men like Solemani don’t come around like clockwork and you cannot expect to treat your best generals like cannon fodder. But no one wanted to accept that in the delusional crowd. Ghani would take his spot we were told.
Well you see Solemani was so important that after he left the task had to be picked up by Nasrallah.
And the Axis of Resistance was eventually meant to be used. If you built it you have to use it or you will lose it.
When the time came, Iran didn’t use it. In fact, the entire AoR was nothing more than distraction to keep Israel occupied so it wouldn’t come after Iran. It was never an axis of resistance, it was a sacrificial lamb.
Ironically, trusting a Sunni Miltant Group who sided against Assad ended up being the downfall. What killed the Axis was Hamas. They did their best version of Pearl Harbor and in the process got obliterated, but also took the Axis down with them. It gave Israel the excuse to take out the entire Hz leadership for harassing northern Israel with rocket attacks. Then it went after Syria and began actually hitting Syrian targets. Then Assad fall.
So you can thank Solemani’s thirst for martyrdom and the idiotic lunacy of Sinwar for taking down what took 40+ years to build.
We didn’t fail to sustain it. We just didn’t use it when the time came. You can thank Khamenai and the money hungry factions who just wanted to keep the status quo forever.
Yes, I said that on here and everyone said “how can we go up against Israel and America blah blah blah”.
“Israel is isolated”
“Israel is destroying itself in public image”etc.
Well today’s society has a goldfish memory. Who is still talking about Gaza? No one. Everyone moved on to the next news story.
Nasrallah brought his own fate by spending more time giving elaborate speeches and not backing up his word. When his #2 was killed he did nothing but fire some rockets at a chicken farm. I ridiculed his response on this very forum and said this would come to bite him. But the delusional crowd on here cheered it and said Israel had sustained fake damage and injuries.
Assad fell for the same reason Iran is falling today —economy. The war was largely over, but Syria remained under Cesar sanctions Syria was stifled. Iran was giving it oil and gas to barely survive. Cooking oil was hard to find. Currency wasn’t worth anything.
Thus his military simply stopped fighting and the people stopped supporting Assad because he couldn’t bring the country fortunes back.
The same thing is happening in Iran. Currency is in the trash. Cooking oil is harder to find. Buying meat cost more than your monthly salary. A French old 207 car cost over 12,000 USD. Tell me how are people supposed to support the government at these prices?
Iran had to fight for its life and if it truly cared about the Palestinian cause fight for their fortunes as well when the students were protesting in U.S. universities and people were protesting all around the world.
Instead we found out that Iran never really cared about the Palestinian cause, certainly not enough to bleed for it. It only cared enough to spend money on it and use it as distraction for Israel.
Iran spent 45 years preparing for a war it never intended to fight.
Ideally Iran and Israel would have a short war (weeks, maybe months) and China and Russia and US would put pressure on Israel and Iran to come to terms and a solution be in place for Palestinians and a solution for Iran to get out from sanctions.
I even said the term: “peace thru war”. If iran wanted lasting peace and prosperity it had to bleed and fight for it to the point that America would realize that it’s not in its interests to continue this decades long stand off.
Instead Iran sat on its hands as the war came to its own borders.
Most in Iran would accept Iran being a South Korea or Vietnam or Japan than being a “strategic power”. We mock the Arabs for being stooges to the West, but look at their countries. They (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE) are economically prosperous and thriving while Iran looks more like Iraq and Syria day by day.
Iran promised the people via hardships they would become a stronger and better country. They lied. For 22 years they did nothing with the nuclear program! 22 years! Think about that. An entire generation has grown up with iran negotiating on its nuclear program.
A quarter of century and over 250B spent on something that went up in flames in 15 mins.
Capitulation. Hate to say it. Hate to see it. But capitulation is probably what’s next.
Let’s do a thought experiment:
Let’s say nothing comes of the U.S. attack and let’s say the riots end as well and Iran goes back to how it was.
What then? Currency will continue its decline from 150,000 and in a year will be 200,000 or 250,000. Iran will remain under sanctions and now due to “humans right abuses” it will be further shunned in international trade. Its currency reserves is still largely frozen in foreign banks.
So then how long till next set of protests? 2 years? 3 years? They been increasing in frequency and severity 2019, 2022, 2025.
Thus, Iran cannot simply return to the status quo. Sooner or later, Iran will have to negotiate. The longer it waits the worse the terms will be.
Khamenai has to step down. A transitional government takes hold made up of more pragmatic . Iran reinvents itself as a “democracy” and enters into negotiations with the U.S. if Jewlani can go from ISIS fanatic to suite wearing statements then surely Iran can reinvent itself as a peaceful Persian kitty Cat:
- they give up nuclear enrichment for 25 years and accept nuclear fuel from Russia or U.S.
- they accept a moratorium on no new long range BM productions in exchange for being able to buy fighter jets and operate a more traditional military after a period of time of no military build up
- Agree to join Abraham Accords
In exchange the U.S. and EU remove all sanctions. US oil companies come back to Iran. iran supplies natural gas to Europe thru a pipeline.
That’s the best outcome available in my opinion. Trump would celebrate this immensely. Republicans would back him for fear of going against Dear Leader. Just look at Venzenula, the average person in America thinks Venzenula is now a democracy and Trump brags about getting oil from Venezuela. It’s hilarious the attention span of these guys and how idiotic they are.
Trump is pay to play. If you promise his family hotels in Iran and US oil companies lucrative oil deals and joining his signature foreign policy “Abraham Accords” you avert the disaster scenario that you allude to which is a failed state.
JD Vance his protege and likely next in line to MAGA throne was against Trump attacking Yemen (as evident by the signal text leaks scandal) and against this latest attack. So you can be assured if you secure this deal, that his protege will keep it when he comes to power. JD Vance is the least war monger in that administration.
That is the best outcome for Iran. And I know people hate to hear it. But you have to think if Iran spends the next 15-25 years integrating back into the world economy and building its economy and increasing the livelihood of its people, it can one day decide to stand on its own (far into the future). Iran has to go into rebuilding mode and avoid external conflict for 25-30 years. And who knows in 10-15 years maybe super intelligent AI causes America to implode. No one knows the future. Maybe China and US have a hot war and US loses. Then Iran can be free to do whatever the **** it wants. But for now it needs play ball because the Jews/US rule the world….for now.
This is what Iran should have done since 1979 and be smart like the Chinese and grow and learn from the West and steal its technology until you can stand on your own and have a sanction proof economy. But of course you can’t expect a bunch of fanatical mullah who never had geopolitical experience to understand this. They thought their precious oil will always be needed and that America would be dependent on Middle East oil forever. Well USA today is #1 oil producer in the world, ain’t that a kicker.
You’re probably right. But without reintegration with the word, we’ll eventually end up like North Korea. Average salary in Iran is 200 USD. Next year it will be 150. Then 100.What you're saying sounds like a fantasy story straight out of a Hollywood movie script. All countries worsened after invasions, agreements, or capitulations: Cisjordania, Libya, Syria, Iraq, Sudan, Yugoslavia (which split into 9 countries), and many others. Those who fought to the end survived: Vietnam, which is now prosperous and independent.
If they ever conquer Iran, Iran will become the new Gaza Strip.
Do you think QOL is lower in DPRK than Iran? It likely isn't.You’re probably right. But without reintegration with the word, we’ll eventually end up like North Korea. Average salary in Iran is 200 USD. Next year it will be 150. Then 100.
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