No I did not. At the time I through Iran was going to war. Solemani was #2 most liked man in Iran and important man after Khamenai.
And when I saw the feeble response and Khamenai saying this was just a “slap” and the real response is coming “later”, I realized this government has no will to fight whatsoever. Then we had to sit thru all the propaganda of them going after all the people who were involved with that decision.
That’s not what the consensus was on here. When criticized why Solemani was allowed to even leave Iran given his importance but everyone here said “next man up” and I specifically said on this very forum men like Solemani don’t come around like clockwork and you cannot expect to treat your best generals like cannon fodder. But no one wanted to accept that in the delusional crowd. Ghani would take his spot we were told.
Well you see Solemani was so important that after he left the task had to be picked up by Nasrallah.
And the Axis of Resistance was eventually meant to be used. If you built it you have to use it or you will lose it.
When the time came, Iran didn’t use it. In fact, the entire AoR was nothing more than distraction to keep Israel occupied so it wouldn’t come after Iran. It was never an axis of resistance, it was a sacrificial lamb.
Ironically, trusting a Sunni Miltant Group who sided against Assad ended up being the downfall. What killed the Axis was Hamas. They did their best version of Pearl Harbor and in the process got obliterated, but also took the Axis down with them. It gave Israel the excuse to take out the entire Hz leadership for harassing northern Israel with rocket attacks. Then it went after Syria and began actually hitting Syrian targets. Then Assad fall.
So you can thank Solemani’s thirst for martyrdom and the idiotic lunacy of Sinwar for taking down what took 40+ years to build.
We didn’t fail to sustain it. We just didn’t use it when the time came. You can thank Khamenai and the money hungry factions who just wanted to keep the status quo forever.
Yes, I said that on here and everyone said “how can we go up against Israel and America blah blah blah”.
“Israel is isolated”
“Israel is destroying itself in public image”etc.
Well today’s society has a goldfish memory. Who is still talking about Gaza? No one. Everyone moved on to the next news story.
Nasrallah brought his own fate by spending more time giving elaborate speeches and not backing up his word. When his #2 was killed he did nothing but fire some rockets at a chicken farm. I ridiculed his response on this very forum and said this would come to bite him. But the delusional crowd on here cheered it and said Israel had sustained fake damage and injuries.
Assad fell for the same reason Iran is falling today —economy. The war was largely over, but Syria remained under Cesar sanctions Syria was stifled. Iran was giving it oil and gas to barely survive. Cooking oil was hard to find. Currency wasn’t worth anything.
Thus his military simply stopped fighting and the people stopped supporting Assad because he couldn’t bring the country fortunes back.
The same thing is happening in Iran. Currency is in the trash. Cooking oil is harder to find. Buying meat cost more than your monthly salary. A French old 207 car cost over 12,000 USD. Tell me how are people supposed to support the government at these prices?
Iran had to fight for its life and if it truly cared about the Palestinian cause fight for their fortunes as well when the students were protesting in U.S. universities and people were protesting all around the world.
Instead we found out that Iran never really cared about the Palestinian cause, certainly not enough to bleed for it. It only cared enough to spend money on it and use it as distraction for Israel.
Iran spent 45 years preparing for a war it never intended to fight.
Ideally Iran and Israel would have a short war (weeks, maybe months) and China and Russia and US would put pressure on Israel and Iran to come to terms and a solution be in place for Palestinians and a solution for Iran to get out from sanctions.
I even said the term: “peace thru war”. If iran wanted lasting peace and prosperity it had to bleed and fight for it to the point that America would realize that it’s not in its interests to continue this decades long stand off.
Instead Iran sat on its hands as the war came to its own borders.
Most in Iran would accept Iran being a South Korea or Vietnam or Japan than being a “strategic power”. We mock the Arabs for being stooges to the West, but look at their countries. They (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE) are economically prosperous and thriving while Iran looks more like Iraq and Syria day by day.
Iran promised the people via hardships they would become a stronger and better country. They lied. For 22 years they did nothing with the nuclear program! 22 years! Think about that. An entire generation has grown up with iran negotiating on its nuclear program.
A quarter of century and over 250B spent on something that went up in flames in 15 mins.
Capitulation. Hate to say it. Hate to see it. But capitulation is probably what’s next.
Let’s do a thought experiment:
Let’s say nothing comes of the U.S. attack and let’s say the riots end as well and Iran goes back to how it was.
What then? Currency will continue its decline from 150,000 and in a year will be 200,000 or 250,000. Iran will remain under sanctions and now due to “humans right abuses” it will be further shunned in international trade. Its currency reserves is still largely frozen in foreign banks.
So then how long till next set of protests? 2 years? 3 years? They been increasing in frequency and severity 2019, 2022, 2025.
Thus, Iran cannot simply return to the status quo. Sooner or later, Iran will have to negotiate. The longer it waits the worse the terms will be.
Khamenai has to step down. A transitional government takes hold made up of more pragmatic . Iran reinvents itself as a “democracy” and enters into negotiations with the U.S. if Jewlani can go from ISIS fanatic to suite wearing statements then surely Iran can reinvent itself as a peaceful Persian kitty Cat:
- they give up nuclear enrichment for 25 years and accept nuclear fuel from Russia or U.S.
- they accept a moratorium on no new long range BM productions in exchange for being able to buy fighter jets and operate a more traditional military after a period of time of no military build up
- Agree to join Abraham Accords
In exchange the U.S. and EU remove all sanctions. US oil companies come back to Iran. iran supplies natural gas to Europe thru a pipeline.
That’s the best outcome available in my opinion. Trump would celebrate this immensely. Republicans would back him for fear of going against Dear Leader. Just look at Venzenula, the average person in America thinks Venzenula is now a democracy and Trump brags about getting oil from Venezuela. It’s hilarious the attention span of these guys and how idiotic they are.
Trump is pay to play. If you promise his family hotels in Iran and US oil companies lucrative oil deals and joining his signature foreign policy “Abraham Accords” you avert the disaster scenario that you allude to which is a failed state.
JD Vance his protege and likely next in line to MAGA throne was against Trump attacking Yemen (as evident by the signal text leaks scandal) and against this latest attack. So you can be assured if you secure this deal, that his protege will keep it when he comes to power. JD Vance is the least war monger in that administration.
That is the best outcome for Iran. And I know people hate to hear it. But you have to think if Iran spends the next 15-25 years integrating back into the world economy and building its economy and increasing the livelihood of its people, it can one day decide to stand on its own (far into the future). Iran has to go into rebuilding mode and avoid external conflict for 25-30 years. And who knows in 10-15 years maybe super intelligent AI causes America to implode. No one knows the future. Maybe China and US have a hot war and US loses. Then Iran can be free to do whatever the **** it wants. But for now it needs play ball because the Jews/US rule the world….for now.
This is what Iran should have done since 1979 and be smart like the Chinese and grow and learn from the West and steal its technology until you can stand on your own and have a sanction proof economy. But of course you can’t expect a bunch of fanatical mullah who never had geopolitical experience to understand this. They thought their precious oil will always be needed and that America would be dependent on Middle East oil forever. Well USA today is #1 oil producer in the world, ain’t that a kicker.
borgenproject.org
