Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Tsubasa]

Has nothing to do with this. Turkey would love for Azerbaijan to get unified with Iran’s Azeri region (North and South reunion), but the dangers to this Turkic fantasy is that Balkanization of Iran frees up Iranian Kurdistan. This could risk that Iranian Kurdistan, Iraqi Kurdistan, Syrian Kurdistan and Turkey’s Kurdistan all unite to build a Kurdish nation spanning currently across 4 nations and the middle east.

That is the true reason that Turkey doesn’t want Balkanization of Iran, because it could have a domino effect and give rise to a Kurdish nation, something that Turkey has spent decades repressing.

Turkey is blocking the Balkanization of Iran because it wants Irans stability as a buffer, as a trading partner, as a predictable rival. Not because an Turkic dream would be so appealing, but because disintegration creates chaos that Turkey cannot manage. The Kurdish card is real, but it has become secondary compared to the bigger picture, stable mullah-led Iran is better than a puzzle of mini-states in which everything explodes, Kurds or not.

 

[Persian Gulf]

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[Persian Gulf]

Trump isn’t falling for it:

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did you expect him to say something else

 

[Immortals]

The Kurdish card is real, but it has become secondary compared to the bigger picture, stable mullah-led Iran is better than a puzzle of mini-states in which everything explodes, Kurds or not.

The explosion is risk is strictly tied to the Kurds as they would be the biggest benefactor. The Azeris would if anything strengthen their ties to Turkey and Azeribajian. The Arabs of Ahwaz would align more closer to Iraqis. And the Baluchis of the southeast are not a threat for Turkey but for Pakistans own border regions.

Again the main concern here for Turkey is that the next “western” operation after the fall of iran would be the creation of a large Kurdish state to act as a bulwark against any Ottoman Aspirations the Turks may have. And the one leading this engineering would be none other than the other artificial state in the region —Israel.

So Turkey’s entire goal here is its own self preservation, as the fall of Iran is akin to the fall of Syria for Iran —the next project would be the creation of a Kurdistan which Turkey views as existential to its long term power projection.

Iran has distracted Israel and U.S. for decades while keeping the focus off of Turkey and the Arabs. A fallen Iran means heightened focus on the next “problem” states in the region by the West. Turkey stands out as one of those problem states as it doesn’t completely toe the Western/Israeli line. Qatar can also be another problem state as its harboring of Hamas leadership will be called into question as it sits on massive gas reserves that the Europeans so desperately crave.

For better for worse Iran was the problem child that kept the West distracted, when that problem child is dealt with then the focus becomes on the other children in the family.

 

[StrategicBear]

I still think Iran should do a Preemptive Strike at the very last moment when Iranian commanders are certain the American strikes have been launched and about to hit Iran within less than an hour or less than 30 minutes.

This isn't a Turn-Based RPG battle where you wait for the enemy to land a hit on you before you can attack them. We are dealing with a Superpower's military so logically we want to be able to land a first hit on them with maximum force so we can take out as much of their assets as possible before they regroup and double down for a long war Iran can win via attrition and possible Chinese/Russian intervention.

China who depends on Middle Eastern oil won't allow Hormuz Strait to be shut down indefinitely and will definitely send more warships to the region to goad US into attacking them first so they have casus belli to declare war on USA to coincide with their imminent plans to liberate Taiwan.

 

[Immortals]

did you expect him to say something else

Nasrallah also gave these elaborate long winded speeches disguised as prophecies. We all know where that led to.

Iran and its axis legions love to hear themselves talk. So far the ferocious nature of its words has never matched the pragmatic subdued actions that follow. The enemy is getting tired of it.

 

[Mighty_Dragon_Strike]

SL had predicted some 10 years back, zios had 20 years rem.

then, I questioned myself, if he knows so much about future, then, why is he not king of this world!

 

[Immortals]

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Will Khamenai give up the nuclear program? Or Will Trump agree to a new JCPOA that is identical to the previous one and call it the ‘best deal ever’ and more amazing than Obama’s?

 

[SolarWarden]

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Will Khamenai give up the nuclear program? Or Will Trump agree to a new JCPOA that is identical to the previous one and call it the ‘best deal ever’ and more amazing than Obama’s?

If Khamenai publicly says Trump is an alpha and bestes negotiator in the world and definitely has big hands Trump may lift all sanctions on Iran.

 

[SolarWarden]

I still think Iran should do a Preemptive Strike at the very last moment when Iranian commanders are certain the American strikes have been launched and about to hit Iran within less than an hour or less than 30 minutes.

This isn't a Turn-Based RPG battle where you wait for the enemy to land a hit on you before you can attack them. We are dealing with a Superpower's military so logically we want to be able to land a first hit on them with maximum force so we can take out as much of their assets as possible before they regroup and double down for a long war Iran can win via attrition and possible Chinese/Russian intervention.

China who depends on Middle Eastern oil won't allow Hormuz Strait to be shut down indefinitely and will definitely send more warships to the region to goad US into attacking them first so they have casus belli to declare war on USA to coincide with their imminent plans to liberate Taiwan.

China is not going to do anything just like they did nothing for Venezuela they will sit there and watch Iran's regime be taken out.

 

[bengalcdn]

China is not going to do anything just like they did nothing for Venezuela they will sit there and watch Iran's regime be taken out.

You underestimate China. That’s what Douglas McArthur thought too. Instead he got sent packing into retirement by mao and his peasant army

 

[SolarWarden]

You underestimate China. That’s what Douglas McArthur thought too. Instead he got sent packing into retirement by mao and his peasant army

 

[Persian Gulf]

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restraint shown by Iranian security officers

 

[StrategicBear]

China is not going to do anything just like they did nothing for Venezuela they will sit there and watch Iran's regime be taken out.

You say that like as if it's so easy. Just say that Iran's leaders are taken out. It still doesn't mean that the US can keep the Persian Gulf open for shipping within 6 months after they killed Iran's leaders. Local IRGC commanders can close the Hormuz Straits by using their Anti-Ship Missiles, and IRGC Hypersonics do have the ability to sink a US aircraft carrier at ranges beyond 900 miles from Iran since they now have Chinese Beidou targeting to accurately hit them far at sea,

Methinks you, Solar Warden, are overestimating the US military and underestimating the IRGC military capability. The US taking out Khamenei would also probably be good in the long run because it removes all mental obstacles for Iran from developing Nuclear Weapons now that no pesky old man is stopping them via Fatwas. The US doing anything bad to him would also galvanize worldwide Shia resistance as they unite against the AmeriKKKans.

 

[Persian Gulf]

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Will Khamenai give up the nuclear program? Or Will Trump agree to a new JCPOA that is identical to the previous one and call it the ‘best deal ever’ and more amazing than Obama’s?

nuclear program is not the main issue now

the new issue is missiles