Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Hassan Al-Somal]

"Between "Negotiation Deception" and "Impossible Israeli Conditions": NOTAM (A0374) Imposes "Radar Silence" on Tehran Tonight... and Iranian Drones Breach the Aircraft Carrier’s "Security Dome." — Talal Nahle

Updated Strategic Report (Dawn, Monday - February 2 | 00:05 UTC):
"Do not trust Trump" is the golden rule. The conflicting leaks (negotiations vs. limited strikes) are part of the "Strategic Ambiguity" doctrine. Washington needs time to complete the deployment of its defenses (THAAD/Patriot), as mentioned by the WSJ. Therefore, it is utilizing the "negotiation carrot" to buy this time, while Israel sets "impossible conditions" to ensure the failure of any subsequent diplomatic solution.
Below are the precise details of active and upcoming NOTAMs for this month, integrated with an analysis of the situation on the ground:

I. The NOTAM Map (February 2026):
Based on the attached file (Query Date: Feb 1, 23:37 UTC), this is the "Calendar of Fire" for the coming days:
1. "Critical" NOTAMs (Active now or within 24 hours):
* [A0374/26] - "Radar Blindness" in Tehran (The Most Dangerous):
* Status: Currently Active.
* Scope: From Sunday, Feb 1 (06:30 UTC) to Monday, Feb 2 (18:30 UTC).
* Details: Surveillance radars (En-route) and the Imam Khomeini Airport radar are out of service.
* [B0066/26] - Central Zone Firing:
* Status: Begins shortly (Monday, Feb 2, 03:30 UTC).
* Ends: Continues until Feb 12.
* Location: A 4-mile radius (Coordinates 33N 59E).
* Analysis: Activating a new firing zone in the center of the country, coinciding with "Radar Blindness," aims to create an aerial "kill zone" for any intruder.
* [B0085/26] - Eastern Border Shield (Zabol):
* Status: Currently Active (Started Feb 1).
* Ends: Continues until Feb 17.
* Location: Near the Afghan border (3044N 06141E).
2. The "Tuesday Ambush" NOTAM (Pending):
* [B0051/26] - The Gulf Trap:
* Status: Confirmed and scheduled.
* Start: Tuesday, Feb 3 (02:30 UTC).
* End: Thursday, Feb 5 (08:30 UTC).
* Location: South of "Kish" Island (Central Gulf).
* Analysis: This NOTAM has not been canceled despite the talk of negotiations. It is the strongest "negotiation card" in Iran's hand. Its activation tomorrow means Tehran rejects the American ruse and has decided to close part of the shipping lanes.
3. "Long-Range" NOTAMs (Post-February 9):
* There is a series of NOTAMs (B0090/26 to B0095/26) that all begin on February 9 and continue through March.
* Significance: The Iranian military is preparing for a long "war of attrition" scenario, having scheduled firing and training zones covering most of Iran's geography for the coming month.

II. Analysis of the "Negotiation Trap" and Mobilization:
1. Iranian Drones over the "Lincoln": A "Peer-to-Peer" Message
The detection of drones (Shahed-129) hovering over the USS Abraham Lincoln throughout the day is an unprecedented development in four years.
* Military Significance: Iran is not merely observing; it is performing "Radar Lock-on" and gathering precise targeting data. They are telling the Americans: "We see you, and we can hit you." This bold behavior confirms that Iran is not buying the "negotiation trick."
2. The "Impossible" Israeli Conditions
The three conditions (ending the nuclear program, missiles, and proxies) are terms of "surrender," not negotiation.
* Objective: Israel set these conditions knowing the Iranians would reject them immediately, giving Washington the pretext to claim: "We tried diplomacy and it failed; now war is the solution."
3. The American Dilemma (WSJ Analysis):
The Wall Street Journal report reveals the real reason for the delay: "Lack of Defenses."
* Washington is ready to attack (Limited Strikes) but is not ready to withstand the counterattack (Ballistic Response). Therefore, it needs an extra week or two to deploy additional THAAD and Patriot batteries in the Gulf, Jordan, and the Israeli entity."

 

[mythbuster]

Ok maybe he changed his opinion meanwhile? Many Turks (the people) dont agree with Trump and defend Iran in this conflict. @vizier is one of our Turkish friends here.

Who do you consider as your friend , the ones who say ! Iran is a great power , if push comes to shove Iran will destroy Israel and the middle east ? .....or ones who tell you ! Keep a low key , you are not what you think you are , militarily you are very weak . Don't make irrational moves , bide your time . Use brains rather than bravado.

 

[mythbuster]

I'm not sure if this true.....if it is, this needs to be broken down as to what it means......I can't see why China would do this.

It's hopium like the one Pakistan had in 1971 war ... sixth fleet is coming to rescue Pakistan.

 

[hasn2009]

Would it not be better to just shoot at Israel and the GCC oil rather than engaging with US forces ? The same results of regional pain will be achieved and you know and I know who has pushed the US to fight Iran since 1980 and sabotaged every rapprochement.

Doesn't make much sense to hit GCC unless they again allow US/Israel to use their land to hit Iran. And preemptive strike on Israel will not achieve much either and probably will result Israel using nukes on Iran if they are hit in a meaningful way.

 

[ToddE]

Hezbollah is finished. Houthis may disrupt traffic a bit but nothing beyond what they did last time. Iran Navy and air force will have the daylights beaten out of it if it tries to "Close the Straits of Hormuz". Be realistic.

You think Strait of Hormuz will be closed by active Airforces and Navies ? lol

 

[ToddE]

The fact that these images are being published out in the open is obviously a warning by China to the US, to think twice.

If one understands, there are three HUGE hints of a joint trap being set for US in PG-Red Sea by IRI-Russia-China ... and only of them is of military nature. All possible outcomes point to massive hit on USD which will lead to expansion of Chinese economic grip over MENA, Russian blackmail over EU and IRGC led more emboldened IRI. There is a reason Trump is constantly saying "talks" and "deals" and at most may resort to mutually agreed theatrical exchange like happened many times before. It almost seems like those around Trump including those he selected himself and US deep state altogether want him to be humiliated.

 

[mangekyo]

If one understands, there are three HUGE hints of a joint trap being set for US in PG-Red Sea by IRI-Russia-China ... and only of them is of military nature. All possible outcomes point to massive hit on USD which will lead to expansion of Chinese economic grip over MENA, Russian blackmail over EU and IRGC led more emboldened IRI. There is a reason Trump is constantly saying "talks" and "deals" and at most may resort to mutually agreed theatrical exchange like happened many times before. It almost seems like those around Trump including those he selected himself and US deep state altogether want him to be humiliated.

Its not a trap. Devaluing of the dollar is what transnational capital has decided. Its a transition of power. US is retreating into a regional power.

 

[Pak-Warrior]

Why are Venezuelan oil shipments still going to China to this day?

I wonder this shouldn't be even a question which whole world now knows already about.

Because now US allows Venezuelan shipments AFTER making a deal with puppet Venezuelan govt and removing President Maduro. Trump told Venezuela, he needs total control over Venezuela oil and they complied 100%. Today US receives almost all of the profit from any of Venezuelan oil sold to any country.

I wonder why you guys want to pretend that US is "unable" to stop shipments if it wanted to lol ??

US started to sell Venezuelan oil within 3 days after removing Manduro.

BTW, Trump is now actively advertising Venezuelan oil. Why on earth he would want to sell it If he don't own all the profit from it. WATCH:

 

[mythbuster]

If one understands, there are three HUGE hints of a joint trap being set for US in PG-Red Sea by IRI-Russia-China ... and only of them is of military nature. All possible outcomes point to massive hit on USD which will lead to expansion of Chinese economic grip over MENA, Russian blackmail over EU and IRGC led more emboldened IRI. There is a reason Trump is constantly saying "talks" and "deals" and at most may resort to mutually agreed theatrical exchange like happened many times before. It almost seems like those around Trump including those he selected himself and US deep state altogether want him to be humiliated.

I hope strategic planners in Iran won't touch with a mile long pole....may god have mercy on Iran if they do.

 

[Pak-Warrior]

Why would Iran need their air force or navy to hit ships/seaports in the Persian Gulf? Why would they need an air force or navy to hit oil & gas production facilities in the Gulf?

I doubt the U.S. could prevent even the Iraqi PMF from hitting Kuwaiti oil & gas installations and seaport facilities. Iraqi militias hit the UAE in 2022.

Are they supposed to find & hit all the cruise missiles, ballistic missiles & drones deployed all over Iraq and Iran?

Let's say the Iranian navy and air force have their daylights beaten out of them, then what? How do you stop cruise missiles from being fired from Basra? Baghdad? Short-range ballistic missiles from anywhere in central Iran or central Iraq?

Stop watching YT Channels which describe Iran as super power which can beat the US. I watch news and channels from both sides that makes me with a balanced view. I know Iran can fire lots of missiles but Iran is not a super power. Suppose If Iran can do what you are saying above, and we suppose it really do that. Then what's stopping US to bring its entire war machine and destroy every standing building in Tehran, all economic targets, all ports, airports and govt buildings etc. US can do that to any country on earth except Russia and China.

Whenever people say out of emotions that Iran can do this and that and what not. I ask them a very simple question that Iran spent billions of dollars on those 3 massive nuclear enrichment facilities / centrifuges / reactors deep underground. Iran endured decades of sanctions because of those, Iran said multiple times that it will unleash hell if anyone touches those facilities, Iran said they will close strait of hormuz, do this and that...... But Trump ordered strike, US B2 bombers flew from all the way US dropped massive ordinance over those facilities and destroyed decades of work & efforts in a blink of an eye. What did Iran do in retaliation?? a symbolic attack on Qatari base with advance warning with not a single american casuality! Why not thousands of missiles scenario happened as you are describing above?

So, its not like that what you are describing that missiles are placed all over Iraq and Iran and they can engage in combat in any given time. Its not practical. US would have 100s of satellites right now watching over the region. Don't include rag tag militias in Iraq as a "game changer". They merely have rockets and not fit into equation at all. US has military base in Iraq and we all saw entire Iraqi airspace was open to Israeli airforce during 12 day war. I doubt if Iraqi militias did anything substantial at all during 12 day war.

Having said all that, I think Iran has managed very well with its missile program so far. Given the fact it remained under sanctions all the time but still it can inflict costs over its enemies. But I don't like exaggerations. Whenever any side start exaggerating then I prefer reality over exaggerations. Iran missile program was advancing very rapidly that's why all this buildup is on behest of Israel.

 

[ToddE]

Its not a trap. Devaluing of the dollar is what transnational capital has decided. Its a transition of power. US is retreating into a regional power.

Entire tension with Trump seems to be a strong trap by IRI-Russia-China to mess USD up. Otherwise IRI can just close its shop for next 3 years and wait out Trump's tenure like many others are doing. Why are they posturing otherwise (thrice the mil budget, more bases, more missiles, IAEA kicked out, ~100 Billion USD RMB-export, IRGC induced protests, 5+ MBPD)? can someone explain this. This is the regime that has cooperated with US some dozen times before, even in recent eyars. Larijani is talking with Israel so Jewish factor is less of a concern right now, the real aim is USD the currency. I asked here before, even with war IRGC's 1000 ship strong fleet earned ~115 Billion USD worth export revenue against probably half the import (massive trade surplus, 0% foreign debt), why did they siphoned off the money from Central bank in Tehran to cause deficit and protests? Nobody answered that because people get lost in theatrics of media. The goal was two pronged, weakening Ayatollah grip over IRI for future coup, that was internal, even reliable journalists are now agreeing that IRI is now affectively being run by Larijani, Qalibaf, IRGC etc, so the internal goal is achieved. More importantly, lure in knee-jerk reactionary Trump in for "regime change" accolade he wanted so bad. He answered the call and now is trapped in between starting a war that will lead to USD destruction or leave with nothing. Third option is meaningless military exchange agreed upon by both parties which is most likely.

People forget BRICS planned strike on USD before too but formula was wrong and many member left or showed little commitment the likes of RSA, India, Brazil. New plan seems to be Just Russia-IRI-China led. Trio is trying to use IRI-oil/gas = RMB as weapon. If war starts, IRGCASF will wreck havoc on Petro-USD hydrocarbon wells + mass mining+AShBM/CMing of Strait of Hormuz traffic + Houthis in Red sea. Remember what 20 times weaker Houthis with IRGC's missiles did in Red sea, got bombed but that did not stop them. No matter what becomes of Khamenei and co. but USD will be dented forever only to loose market share to RMB. Combine this with the fact that unrest in Levant makes sure no Turkey-EU hydrocarbon transit can happen so Russia will remain the only major supplier to EU. What do you think Lari J is doing in Moscow with Putin? IRGC-Larijani will take over IRI so regime change means what here? Remember IRI made a huge return in Iraq (2nd, 3rd and 5th largest oil reserves, all aligned) through Dawa party just weeks ago. Trump was set up. He now wants to leave with face saving which IMO he will get through some stupid azz military exchange like happened twice before. Even if one game theory it, within constraints of past wars in region, all the outcomes lead to favor Putin-IRGC/IRI-China in longer terms.

 

[ToddE]

I hope strategic planners in Iran won't touch with a mile long pole....may god have mercy on Iran if they do.

What you or anybody hopes here or not means Jack.

 

[mangekyo]

Entire tension with Trump seems to be a strong trap by IRI-Russia-China to mess USD up. Otherwise IRI can just close its shop for next 3 years and wait out Trump's tenure like many others are doing. Why are they posturing otherwise (thrice the mil budget, more bases, more missiles, IAEA kicked out, ~100 Billion USD RMB-export, IRGC induced protests, 5+ MBPD)? can someone explain this. This is the regime that has cooperated with US some dozen times before, even in recent eyars. Larijani is talking with Israel so Jewish factor is less of a concern right now, the real aim is USD the currency. I asked here before, even with war IRGC's 1000 ship strong fleet earned ~115 Billion USD worth export revenue against probably half the import (massive trade surplus, 0% foreign debt), why did they siphoned off the money from Central bank in Tehran to cause deficit and protests? Nobody answered that because people get lost in theatrics of media. The goal was two pronged, weakening Ayatollah grip over IRI for future coup, that was internal, even reliable journalists are now agreeing that IRI is now affectively being run by Larijani, Qalibaf, IRGC etc, so the internal goal is achieved. More importantly, lure in knee-jerk reactionary Trump in for "regime change" accolade he wanted so bad. He answered the call and now is trapped in between starting a war that will lead to USD destruction or leave with nothing. Third option is meaningless military exchange agreed upon by both parties which is most likely.

I agree on most of this. There is a Larijani coup happening for a long time now. But it's not IRI-Russia-China vs U.S. First lets establish common ground on one thing, do you agree that its the deep state that runs U.S policy and not Trump? Assuming you agree let's continue to my point. Trumps mission assigned to him by the deep state is;

1. Create civil unrest in America through ICE and his MAGA cult with help from the tech industry.
2. Devalue the dollar and hedge US globally by removing everything that was propping up the dollar.
3. Decolonize the M.E
4. Transition America into a regional power with control over the western hemisphere.

We can discuss these points more in detail somewhere else if you like, but I don't want to make this post too long and it will become off topic.

The coup started already when IRI gave the green light to kill Soleimani. Then they got rid of Raisi, right? Hamas and Hezbollah? Larijani faction is shedding IRI of all proxies and hardliners. What do you think the 12 day war was about? It was IRI outsourcing the coup to Israel by having them get rid of Hajizadeh and the old IRGC gang.

 

[ToddE]

I agree on most of this. There is a Larijani coup happening for a long time now. But it's not IRI-Russia-China vs U.S. First lets establish common ground on one thing, do you agree that its the deep state that runs U.S policy and not Trump? Assuming you agree let's continue to my point. Trumps mission assigned to him by the deep state is;

1. Create civil unrest in America through ICE and his MAGA cult with help from the tech industry.
2. Devalue the dollar and hedge US globally by removing everything that was propping up the dollar.
3. Decolonize the M.E
4. Transition America into a regional power with control over the western hemisphere.

We can discuss these points more in detail somewhere else if you like, but I don't want to make this post too long and it will become off topic.

The coup started already when IRI gave the green light to kill Soleimani. Then they got rid of Raisi, right? Hamas and Hezbollah? Larijani faction is shedding IRI of all proxies and hardliners. What do you think the 12 day war was about? It was IRI outsourcing the coup to Israel by having them get rid of Hajizadeh and the old IRGC gang.

OK thats all what I said as well or have been saying. Mind you though that US deep state is Jew infested. Its not some separate entity. The massive donations, fundings all come from Jew run or allied firms to congress and candidates who then appoint people in charge of intel agencies.

If you ask me, Larijani-IRGC nexus is pushing Iran in right direction. They are purging IRI of ideological figures one by one and getting the system to focus more inward. One can wonder atleast the current ruling system started with Soleimani, the man who created an empire stretching from Yemen to Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon. The same IRI now does not have any such foriegn elements to feed in name of fighting Israel. They are selling 5+ MBPD in times of war. If they can get more investment in for hydrocarbon sector, the exports will increase multifold. The military is strong as hell and large, war hardened against first world middle-hyperpower dou so they can beat up anyone regionally atleast. Iran the nation is capable enough to attain a mid-power status within ~7 years if they get rid of Islamists Ayatollahs who want to lock horns with Jew controlled west over Palestine and Islam or whatever. Israel should do as it pleases, no more Hezbollahs, Assads, PMFs, PIJs or Hamas exists in its way anymore which means we save 500+ Billion USD.

 

[aerospace_enthusiast_newb]

Stop watching YT Channels which describe Iran as super power which can beat the US. I watch news and channels from both sides that makes me with a balanced view. I know Iran can fire lots of missiles but Iran is not a super power. Suppose If Iran can do what you are saying above, and we suppose it really do that. Then what's stopping US to bring its entire war machine and destroy every standing building in Tehran, all economic targets, all ports, airports and govt buildings etc. US can do that to any country on earth except Russia and China.

Whenever people say out of emotions that Iran can do this and that and what not. I ask them a very simple question that Iran spent billions of dollars on those 3 massive nuclear enrichment facilities / centrifuges / reactors deep underground. Iran endured decades of sanctions because of those, Iran said multiple times that it will unleash hell if anyone touches those facilities, Iran said they will close strait of hormuz, do this and that...... But Trump ordered strike, US B2 bombers flew from all the way US dropped massive ordinance over those facilities and destroyed decades of work & efforts in a blink of an eye. What did Iran do in retaliation?? a symbolic attack on Qatari base with advance warning with not a single american casuality! Why not thousands of missiles scenario happened as you are describing above?

So, its not like that what you are describing that missiles are placed all over Iraq and Iran and they can engage in combat in any given time. Its not practical. US would have 100s of satellites right now watching over the region. Don't include rag tag militias in Iraq as a "game changer". They merely have rockets and not fit into equation at all. US has military base in Iraq and we all saw entire Iraqi airspace was open to Israeli airforce during 12 day war. I doubt if Iraqi militias did anything substantial at all during 12 day war.

Having said all that, I think Iran has managed very well with its missile program so far. Given the fact it remained under sanctions all the time but still it can inflict costs over its enemies. But I don't like exaggerations. Whenever any side start exaggerating then I prefer reality over exaggerations. Iran missile program was advancing very rapidly that's why all this buildup is on behest of Israel.

Not sure what any of this has to do with the ability to close the straits of Hormuz?

Fact remains, if Iran decides to close the straits, it will be extremely difficult to open it again. Furthermore, Iraqi militias absolutely can strike stationary targets in Kuwait. It's not difficult at all. The fact that they didn't participate in the 12-day war has absolutely nothing to do with striking large stationary targets in the gulf. Wtf?

And yes, actually, short-range missiles and cruise missiles are in fact stationed all over Iran and Iraq. They cannot reach Israel, but they are accurate enough to target any civilian ship or oil production facility in the gulf.

You don't need an airforce or a navy to close it. Or to knock out the oil&gas installations. Why are you bringing up all these other factors? Solid-fuel SRBMs can easily be fired from Iran. The U.S. did not manage to find all of the missiles that the Houthis possessed. Same is true with Iran.

The person I responded to stated that the U.S. would destroy Iran's air force and navy in that case. I answered that it doesn't matter whatsoever. America's response would be severe yes, but the fact remains that Iran can close the straits.

It's astonishing that you think that Iran can't close it for a long period of time, and knock-out oil&gas production in the gulf. If it's worth the cost, that is completely different conversation.