Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[ShapurII]

I think you may be mistaken.....a nuclear deal will be hinged upon removing the sanctions. Remember, how many times Trump said we can help make Iran great again?
I absolutely think the deal will have some sort of sanctions relief for the sale of oil and some banking relief. It has to....otherwise fk it.

I thought we were discussing the framework proposed by Qatar, Turkey and regional countries, leaked by Al Jazeera. There is no mention of sanctions relief in that. Only a non-aggression agreement with no real guarantee to be respected.

Anyway, I think the US will most likely attack Iran soon, probably before March. I truly hope it would never happen, as the US has scary fire power that can wreak havoc on our cities, but everything seems to suggest that either Khamenei has to step down and a new chapter has to start in Iran, or war is inevitable.

 

[SolarWarden]

Doesn’t seem like Friday is going to be negotiations, but terms of surrender. If Iran doesn’t accept then the military action will begin maybe as soon as that weekend.

Or maybe there is a breakthru tomm.

This could also be a negotiation tactic making it look like it's on the cusp when in reality we're weeks away until all assets arrive.

 

[ShapurII]

You know what would be hilarious?
If the US kidnaps Araghchi and his diplomats in Oman and doesn't let them return to Iran lol

 

[kastor ville]

I thought we were discussing the framework proposed by Qatar, Turkey and regional countries, leaked by Al Jazeera. There is no mention of sanctions relief in that. Only a non-aggression agreement with no real guarantee to be respected.

Anyway, I think the US will most likely attack Iran soon, probably before March. I truly hope it would never happen, as the US has scary fire power that can wreak havoc on our cities, but everything seems to suggest that either Khamenei has to step down and a new chapter has to start in Iran, or war is inevitable.

Well, he's doing his absolute best to make us think he will attack Iran.......however, the stock market has been tanking, we've never had a president so scared of the market like this guy. If he attacks Iran, oil will shoot up, and the fire will be self feeding inferno....the economy will definitely tank. I seriously doubt he will attack at this point....no surprise this time. Let's look at the build up of military force.......there is so much of it, I can only conclude a greenhorn like Hegseth decided he would send as much force as he possibly could to show Trump what a great bootlicker he is.......and that he's ready for any scenario. Again, I doubt there is an actual plan that is progressing. I think the amateur Def Sec is just covering his bases in case the shit does hit the fan.

 

[kastor ville]

This could also be a negotiation tactic making it look like it's on the cusp when in reality we're weeks away until all assets arrive.

This x 1000
Actually it's not even about assets.....he's just saber rattling.

 

[ShapurII]

Well, he's doing his absolute best to make us think he will attack Iran.......however, the stock market has been tanking, we've never had a president so scared of the market like this guy. If he attacks Iran, oil will shoot up, and the fire will be self feeding inferno....the economy will definitely tank. I seriously doubt he will attack at this point....no surprise this time. Let's look at the build up of military force.......there is so much of it, I can only conclude a greenhorn like Hegseth decided he would send as much force as he possibly could to show Trump what a great bootlicker he is.......and that he's ready for any scenario. Again, I doubt there is an actual plan that is progressing. I think the amateur Def Sec is just covering his bases in case the shit does hit the fan.

But oil prices didn't shoot up last time, did it? It went up by 2 dollars and it lasted only for 48 hours. Iran is not an important player in global economy anymore.

I think Trump is serious and he loves surprising the world. Who could've believed that he would go after Gen. Soleimani on a visit in Iraq? Who could've believed that he would kidnap Maduro and his wife? Last time he threatened that they would take out Iran's nuclear program after his ultimatum ends and that's exactly what happened after his ultimatum ended.

 

[kastor ville]

But oil prices didn't shoot up last time, did it? It went up by 2 dollars and it lasted only for 48 hours. Iran is not an important player in global economy anymore.

I think Trump is serious and he loves surprising the world. Who could've believed that he would go after Gen. Soleimani on a visit in Iraq? Who could've believed that he would kidnap Maduro and his wife? Last time he threatened that they would take out Iran's nuclear program after his ultimatum ends and that's exactly what happened after his ultimatum ended.

Are you talking about the 1980s?
In any case, there is different game afoot this time. I actually heard Marandi repeat some of my points in here about closing the Hormuz not being enough, we have to hit gas terminals, and oil refineries....not only that, but also a few missiles on the over land portion of the backup pipeline.
I understand I'm hinging all of this on an assumption that Iran has a plan and the capability to do this. If they don't then you're right oil will spike 5 bucks or so...and this may be smoothed over by news releases out of SA that they will increase production.
I want to think the reality of the situation is the former scenario.

PS: Think about this, if they come for an all out war to teach us a lesson, they will hit our refineries, they will most likely hit economic centers.....just like you said earlier, they may use the Iraq playbook...noting was spared in that war.
So if that's the case......we should set the entire energy hub on fire....and watch the glowing horizon in the night, because they mean to destroy us.

 

[ShapurII]

Are you talking about the 1980s?
In any case, there is different game afoot this time. I actually heard Marandi repeat some of my points in here about closing the Hormuz not being enough, we have to hit gas terminals, and oil refineries....not only that, but also a few missiles on the over land portion of the backup pipeline.
I understand I hinging all of this on an assumption that Iran has a plan and the capability to do this. If they don't then you're right oil will spike 5 bucks or so...and this may be smoothed over by news releases out of SA that they will increase production.
I want to think the reality of the situation is the former scenario.

No, I'm talking about the 12-day war. After Israel attacked Iran, oil prices went up for about $2 and went down again after 48 hours.

I honestly think that the idea of closing the Strait of Hormuz or hitting the energy infrastructure of neighboring countries is nonsense. The Islamic Republic is corrupt to the core and all their family members live abroad. They would never do that because there's just too much collateral (i.e. their families). Also, they would never upset China like that. These plans are like those foolish dreams of destroying Haifa and Tel Aviv.

 

[hasssanali8998]

The Islamic Republic is corrupt to the core and all their family members live abroad.

they might change their mind if they sense they are not getting out of this alive

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

- "We will not leave ballistic missiles in Iran's hands.

Ballistic missiles are an existential threat no less than the Iranian nuclear program, and we understand the pressures from Arab parties in the region.

It's possible, as in the Twelve-Day War or in other cases, that Israel will take the first steps to war," - Yaakov Bardugo of Israeli Channel 14.

 

[Navid09]

No, I'm talking about the 12-day war. After Israel attacked Iran, oil prices went up for about $2 and went down again after 48 hours.

I honestly think that the idea of closing the Strait of Hormuz or hitting the energy infrastructure of neighboring countries is nonsense. The Islamic Republic is corrupt to the core and all their family members live abroad. They would never do that because there's just too much collateral (i.e. their families). Also, they would never upset China like that. These plans are like those foolish dreams of destroying Haifa and Tel Aviv.

Name "all" of there family members that live abroad

 

[kastor ville]

No, I'm talking about the 12-day war. After Israel attacked Iran, oil prices went up for about $2 and went down again after 48 hours.

I honestly think that the idea of closing the Strait of Hormuz or hitting the energy infrastructure of neighboring countries is nonsense. The Islamic Republic is corrupt to the core and all their family members live abroad. They would never do that because there's just too much collateral (i.e. their families). Also, they would never upset China like that. These plans are like those foolish dreams of destroying Haifa and Tel Aviv.

Maybe....maybe, but a credible threat may give Trump pause. I don't even think they have the balls to do that. We're talking a seismic economic event that could have a multi year effect on the energy market.
Option B is to negotiate and give up everything...for sanction relief,
Option C is to die a slow death, culminating in another violent outbreak with many, many Iranian civilians dying.....and a chaos that would give Israel the perfect opportunity to destroy all of our defenses. Also, using that opportunity to arm the Kurds, Baluch, Azeri, and Arab minority to roll up Iran into a failed state.

 

[kastor ville]

- "We will not leave ballistic missiles in Iran's hands.

Ballistic missiles are an existential threat no less than the Iranian nuclear program, and we understand the pressures from Arab parties in the region.

It's possible, as in the Twelve-Day War or in other cases, that Israel will take the first steps to war," - Yaakov Bardugo of Israeli Channel 14.

As long as we don't get pounded by the US, or have a civil war, Israel cannot do jackshit about out BMs.
I repeat, they can't even defend against our small barrage, after a surprise attack that killed the entire leadership, and destroyed a lot of our defense network.....imagine what would happen now.
If Iran did nothing....they proved Israel is a paper tiger, a mere bully....that needs to be punched in the nose every now and again to remind them they're tiny and powerless without the US.
The winds of change in the US are blowing hard....Israel's tight grip on DC maybe be coming to an end.

 

[kastor ville]

Name "all" of there family members that live abroad

Are you serious, they just fired Larijani's daughter from her job ....they also fired another one is the former VP's son Eissa Hashemi....there are also a news report about approx 4000 children of regime insiders living abroad.

 

[Cancerous Tumor]

JD Vance on Iran:

The person who makes the decisions in Iran is the Supreme Leader. The President doesn't really matter.

The Foreign Minister seems to talk to the Supreme Leader and that's mainly the person that we've communicated with.

But it's a very weird country to conduct diplomacy with when you can't even talk to the person who's in charge of the country.

Trump can pick up the phone and call Putin. He can pick up the phone and call Xi. Even countries that we have very hostile relations with.

It is bizarre that we can't just talk to the actual leadership of Iran. It really makes diplomacy very difficult.



Khamenei refuses to talk and negotiate with the US directly. JD Vance is very obviously p'ssed.

With that logic, Iran should make diplomacy with rothschild and bankers and/or people behind likes of epsteins not random dudes/gals in white house or congress.

i'm Not diplomacy fan under current conditions.