Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[ShapurII]

who cares what his son wants? he doesn't make decisions or reflect the views of Iranians. my aunt (Persian) lives in Tabriz and has an Azeri-Iranian husband. so what? they are both Iranian patriots.

I would rather have IRI in power than balkanisation of Iran. hell, I would rather have MEK in power than balkanisation of Iran.

The problem is not with Azeri people of Iran. Most of them, the overwhelming majority of them, are patriotic and faithful to Iran, but you know who Pezeshkian and his close circle are.

Heck, Aliyev helped Israel kill our previous president and Pezeshkian is so obsessed with him that he either has to personally visit him every month or so or lick his balls over phone calls regularly.

In that case, trust me, nobody is bringing our country closer to Balkanization than the Islamic Republic.

 

[Persian Gulf]

They were designed to weaken Iran. And the Ayatollahs seemed absolutely OK with it as long as they could remain in power. Otherwise, why would you accept 25 years of "strategic patience" when they are strangling you to death?

But again, let's not forget that Iran's currency devaluation has been a thing long before sanctions started. Even when we were on good terms with Europe during Khatami's era, our currency devalued consistently.

weaken Iran, how? by harming the exchange rate?

you can clearly see the rapid decline in the value of the rial take effect from around 2006 (with UNSC sanctions) and then in 2011-2012, with Hillary Clinton's famous sanctions package

 

[mangekyo]

the US didn't invest billions in media wars for nothing. they succeeded in brainwashing millions of young Iranians. sad.

Their inorganic movement can’t even produce slogans. Its just Javid shah, kose nanat, we are persians, not Muslims.

 

[Beast89]

Oh really?

Scott Bassent's will be more ruthless when it comes to economic warfare because he's gay married to a man and has to prove himself to the republicans. He is psychopathic.

 

[Persian Gulf]

The problem is not with Azeri people of Iran. Most of them, the overwhelming majority of them, are patriotic and faithful to Iran, but you know who Pezeshkian and his close circle are.

Heck, Aliyev helped Israel kill our previous president and Pezeshkian is so obsessed with him that he either has to personally visit him every month or so or lick his balls over phone calls regularly.

In that case, trust me, nobody is bringing our country closer to Balkanization than the Islamic Republic.

I think Pezeshkian is a decent man (did not remarry after losing his wife) but incompetent politician who is better as a doctor than a politician. He reminds me of Ben Carson (the American brain surgeon who came across as retarded in every debate).

If we can have good relations with Azerbaijan to limit Israel's ability to use it as a base against us, that is worth pursuing. And we can't fight everyone at once. Let's figure out a way to survive Israel and the US before we focus on smaller issues like Aliyev pushing his luck with us and being best friends with Israel, Iraq refusing to pay their debts to us, and Taliban limiting our water rights.

 

[ShapurII]

weaken Iran, how? by harming the exchange rate?

you can clearly see the rapid decline in the value of the rial take effect from around 2006 (with UNSC sanctions) and then in 2011-2012, with Hillary Clinton's famous sanctions package

View attachment 179941

The chart is very misleading since you are dealing with exponential growth. Whenever you are dealing with exponential growth, recent history looks dominant because the gap between numbers gets larger. Take the logarithm of that chart and you will have a much better picture.

It's quite easy actually. In 1979, 1 USD was about 70 IRR. 1 USD is about 1,628,000 IRR now. Calculate its geometric mean and you will see that USD has appreciated against our currency by 23% per annum, on average. So, this has been an ongoing situation for 47 years. And it is only getting worse because the oligarchy in Iran is getting more powerful and greedy.

Sanctions do play a role, but nothing like what is happening in Iran. Russia is under tougher sanctions but it hasn't experienced anything like us.

 

[Meengla]

And the Ayatollahs seemed absolutely OK with it as long as they could remain in power. Otherwise, why would you accept 25 years of "strategic patience" when they are strangling you to death?

But again, let's not forget that Iran's currency devaluation has been a thing long before sanctions started. Even when we were on good terms with Europe during Khatami's era, our currency devalued consistently.

You and apparently many others in this thread are missing the crucial events starting early 2025: Iran's deterrence via its allies in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria greatly degraded and thus there are even harsher financial measures being applied, including browbeating the EU to declare IIRG a 'terrorist' organization and open military attacks.

There are now qualitative and quantitative measures against Iran unlike they existed before just two years ago. The goal is a fragmented, unstable Iran, if Netanyahu can have it. And he has three more years to work on his stooge President Trump. Horror that!!

 

[Persian Gulf]

Their inorganic movement can’t even produce slogans. Its just Javid shah, kose nanat, we are persians, not Muslims.

a lot of them seem to have severe psychological trauma which they project onto Islam and Muslims. which is funny when their Shah was a practising Muslim called Mohammad.

and a lot of them are really obsessed with vulgar language involving women's bodies. it's quite disturbing. they are not well mannered people or good representatives of Iranian civilisation.

 

[ShapurII]

I think Pezeshkian is a decent man (did not remarry after losing his wife) but incompetent politician who is better as a doctor than a politician. He reminds me of Ben Carson (the American brain surgeon who came across as retarded in every debate).

If we can have good relations with Azerbaijan to limit Israel's ability to use it as a base against us, that is worth pursuing. And we can't fight everyone at once. Let's figure out a way to survive Israel and the US before we focus on smaller issues like Aliyev pushing his luck with us and being best friends with Israel, Iraq refusing to pay their debts to us, and Taliban limiting our water rights.

The idea of shaking hands with a person that openly talks about invasion of Iran and entering Iranian land on his national TV is hilarious. The person that calls our territory "Southern Azerbaijan" in his newspapers and national TV. Pezeshkian has arranged his circle of advisors and friends purely based on ethnicity and federalist sentiments. Even mashreghnews, which is an IRGC-affiliated oulet, has warned about this many times.

The republic of Azerbaijan is getting armed against us, in case you have missed that.

 

[Persian Gulf]

The chart is very misleading but you are dealing with exponential growth. Whenever you are dealing with exponential growth, recent history looks dominant because the gap between numbers gets larger. Take the logarithm of that chart and you will have a much better picture.

It's quite easy actually. In 1979, 1 USD was about 70 IRR. 1 USD is about 1,628,000 IRR now. Calculate its geometric mean and you will see that USD has appreciated against our currency by 23% per annum, on average. So, this has been an ongoing situation for 47 years. And it is only getting worse because the oligarchy in Iran is getting more powerful and greedy.

Sanctions do play a role, but nothing like what is happening in Iran. Russia is under tougher sanctions but it hasn't experienced anything like us.

that is not a logarithmic chart.

you talk about exponential growth then use the average appreciation per year since 1979? that doesn't make sense since you just admitted the majority of that appreciation occurred in recent years.

Russia is not under tougher sanctions than Iran. European countries like Slovakia and Hungry still buy Russian oil. Not to mention India, Turkey, UAE, etc. Only China buys Iranian oil.

 

[ShapurII]

You and apparently many others in this thread are missing the crucial events starting early 2025: Iran's deterrence via its allies in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria greatly degraded and thus there are even harsher financial measures being applied, including browbeating the EU to declare IIRG a 'terrorist' organization and open military attacks.

There are now qualitative and quantitative measures against Iran unlike they existed before just two years ago. The goal is a fragmented, unstable Iran, if Netanyahu can have it. And he has three more years to work on his stooge President Trump. Horror that!!

A nation that bases her deterrence on militias and some corrupt murderous politician kept in power by Russia and our resources should expect this outcome. We had warned about all of this for years.

The IRGC was recognized as a terrorist organization after January protests. Trump did that during his first term but Europe refused to do that until only recently. I suppose when you kill your own people, you are giving foreign countries an excuse to label you like that.

There are no qualitative measures against Iran that did not exist two years ago. If anything, our oil exports are higher than 2018. The problem is that this money goes through a network of trustees, i.e. oligarchs with links to the system, and it isn't returned to the country because the collateral for the financial volume of their transactions is so little that they are not afraid of not returning the oil money.

 

[Persian Gulf]

The idea of shaking hands with a person that openly talks about invasion of Iran and entering Iranian land on his national TV is hilarious. The person that calls our territory "Southern Azerbaijan" in his newspapers and national TV. Pezeshkian has arranged his circle of advisors and friends purely based on ethnicity and federalist sentiments. Even mashreghnews, which is an IRGC-affiliated oulet, has warned about this many times.

The republic of Azerbaijan is getting armed against us, in case you have missed that.

It is not nice to see such weakness but we have bigger problems right now. I was the one talking about the influence of pan Turks in the IRI years ago (when it was less popular and I got a lot of criticism), so don't get confused that I have any love for these people.

Ideally, we would arm Armenia if Azerbaijan refuses to cut ties with Israel. But Armenia is not even on board with that. So we should bide our time and get along with Azerbaijan for now. Azerbaijan is not Israel with control of the US government and layers of ABM shields, they are not an immediate threat.

 

[mangekyo]

a lot of them seem to have severe psychological trauma which they project onto Islam and Muslims. which is funny when their Shah was a practising Muslim called Mohammad.

and a lot of them are really obsessed with vulgar language involving women's bodies. it's quite disturbing. they are not well mannered people or good representatives of Iranian civilisation.

Because it’s not an organic movement. Its a carefully engineered movement designed through the use of psychological warfare on Iranians for generations.

 

[Persian Gulf]

When George W. Bush started his war of choice with Iraq in 2003, he had the support of 79% of Americans. The war still destroyed his presidency.

In comparison, Trump only has the support of 18% of Americans for his and Israel's war of choice with Iran.

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With the World Cup in June, and midterms in November, and very low levels of support for a major war with Iran, Trump has to be confident he can achieve his objectives quickly. Otherwise he will get fucked in the mid terms. Trump is reckless but he backs down when needed. Look at his climbdown in the ICE raids when they became too unpopular.

 

[PakistanLVR]

A nation that bases her deterrence on militias and some corrupt murderous politician kept in power by Russia and our resources should expect this outcome. We had warned about all of this for years.

The IRGC was recognized as a terrorist organization after January protests. Trump did that during his first term but Europe refused to do that until only recently. I suppose when you kill your own people, you are giving foreign countries an excuse to label you like that.

There are no qualitative measures against Iran that did not exist two years ago. If anything, our oil exports are higher than 2018. The problem is that this money goes through a network of trustees, i.e. oligarchs with links to the system, and it isn't returned to the country because the collateral for the financial volume of their transactions is so little that they are not afraid of not returning the oil money.

Russian style - and their oligarchs planted their money in the UK - which was later seized at the start of the Ukrainian war.