Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Meengla]

But the USN will not approach Iranian shores before it has suppressed our littoral assets. And it will not get that close anyway. Only close enough to launch Tomahawk missiles.

In theory, yes, but I believe Iran has not only extensive defenses but also some are decoys or hidden and so the risk of even one major US vessel sinking or large number of deaths in case some Iranian assets were missed would be too great.
Iran is not without potent options of its own and the delay in an attack, despite Netanyahu's repeated trips to Washington, points toward that. Not having a land presence to attack has made the attack very dangerous and complicated. In case of the Iraq War 2003, there was the Qatari bases and many other countries helping the Americans. It is different this time.

 

[Meengla]

Not much discussed here the role of Hezbollah and any Iran-allied militias in case of a full fledged war. It would surprise me a lot if Hezbollah does nothing in that case because they are the next in line; they are still not totally vanished and are probably regrouping for the eventual war with Israel.
Israel will want to take southern Lebanon up to the Litani River and I don't think they will wait long for such a move.

 

[ShapurII]

In theory, yes, but I believe Iran has not only extensive defenses but also some are decoys or hidden and so the risk of even one major US vessel sinking or large number of deaths in case some Iranian assets were missed would be too great.
Iran is not without potent options of its own and the delay in an attack, despite Netanyahu's repeated trips to Washington, points toward that. Not having a land presence to attack has made the attack very dangerous and complicated. In case of the Iraq War 2003, there was the Qatari bases and many other countries helping the Americans. It is different this time.

The Arab countries will fully cooperate with the US. And not only they will cooperate with the US, they will aid the US as well.

Qatar was the country that enabled the assassination of Gen. Soleimani in Iraq. And that happened when Qatar needed Iran really badly due to their diplomatic tensions with Saudi Arabia. Do you seriously think Qatar will say no to Trump now?

And sure, the US will miss some of our assets. Nothing is 100%, but they will get a good chunk of it before approaching our shores to fire Tomahawk missiles.

 

[ShapurII]

Not much discussed here the role of Hezbollah and any Iran-allied militias in case of a full fledged war. It would surprise me a lot if Hezbollah does nothing in that case because they are the next in line; they are still not totally vanished and are probably regrouping for the eventual war with Israel.
Israel will want to take southern Lebanon up to the Litani River and I don't think they will wait long for such a move.

There are scenarios where Iran plays the madman, but none of them are that likely to happen because Iran lacks nuclear deterrence.

For example, Iran could launch a pre-emptive strike and destroy most of the US assets deployed in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, etc. Possible? Sure, but highly unlikely.

Iran has every legal right and justification to launch a pre-emptive strike now. The US has publicly and officially announced that they have deployed their forces in the region to attack Iran. That's a legitimate reason for a pre-emptive attack. But will it happen? No.

 

[ToddE]

Of course, it is theoretically possible for Iran to attack Jordan, Turkey and Israel. There is no doubt that in theory, that is certainly possible on paper. But how likely is that based on Iran's recent conflict with Israel and past behaviors? Not much in my opinion.


I don't get why the USN shows up in your calculus again. They will be out of the range of our AshBMs and out of the war in initial phase. Let's say they're like 2,500 km away from our shores. How do you want to screw them? What tools do we have at our disposal to target them that far?

By the way, ACs are not sitting ducks. I thought they were sitting ducks too until I was proven wrong by one of the members here; they're impressively agile for their size and enormous weight.

What geographical advantage does Iran have in the Indian Ocean? The US will not have boots on the ground. So, what geographical advantage are we discussing now? Closing the Strait of Hormuz?

- Nobody knows exact max range of Iranian AShBM and AShCM arsenal. Current what we know is 2000 KM for AShCM with Qadr family of Cruise missiles one of which is recently tested at 1700 KM. AShBM MaRV max declared range is 750 KM with Zolfaghar Basir but there is a hint that Fattah-Hypersonic MaRV's Naval version might exist as well. Also Qasem-Basir exists now with 1400 KM, its mid course guided, terminal EO/IR MaRV like rest. Remember this family of missiles has undeclared capabilities e.g. Kheybar Shikar hit inside Israel at distance of 2100 KM so we dont know what Fattah itself is capable of. Land attack capabilities are far beyond with K-4 and Sejjil for upto 3000 KM as per western think tanks. May be beyond that with Ghaem and Qassed TEL SLVs with RVs. IRGCASF has been quiet for an year now. We know they have 3 times the money and are making changes on ground but are very secretive under new commanders.

- There are 10 different ways of getting back at US instead of firing at Carrier like retards. There is a reason they have not attacked yet because there are other vulnerabilities which they want not to be touched. Shipping lanes out of PG and Red Sea, Petro USD feeding oil terminals, mining Sea choking points, vulnerable AD/ISR bases/assets (remember IRGC strikes at US in Iraq, Israel, Qatar), regional political and military chaos (see what happened in Iraq recently, Maliki is back). War is multidomain not just shooting at eachother. Almost entire forum here has no understanding of what proper elongated war is, biggest factor of which is money. Some user yesterday was telling us here how Iran should try establish "air-superiority" over US lol.

Against an extreme global military power (US+NATO+Israel) if you try to fight conventionally with jets, ships, tanks you will end up choked/occupied/dead like Iraq, Yugoslavia, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan. The key is to create economic choke points which western political entities hate to even be touched in wars. Good news is we are not stupid despite the fact that IRI comes from bottom of Iranian society.

 

[ShapurII]

- Nobody knows exact max range of Iranian AShBM and AShCM arsenal. Current what we know is 2000 KM for AShCM with Qadr family of Cruise missiles one of which is recently tested at 1700 KM. AShBM MaRV max declared range is 750 KM with Zolfaghar Basir but there is a hint that Fattah-Hypersonic MaRV's Naval version might exist as well. Also Qasem-Basir exists now with 1400 KM, its mid course guided, terminal EO/IR MaRV like rest. Remember this family of missiles has undeclared capabilities e.g. Kheybar Shikar hit inside Israel at distance of 2100 KM so we dont know what Fattah itself is capable of. Land attack capabilities are far beyond with K-4 and Sejjil for upto 3000 KM as per western think tanks. May be beyond that with Ghaem and Qassed with RVs. IRGCASF has been quiet for an year now. We know they have 3 times money and are making changes on ground but secretive.

- There are 10 different ways of getting back at US instead of firing at Carrier like retards. There is a reason they have not attacked yet because there are other vulnerabilities which they want not to be touched. Shipping lanes out of PG and Red Sea, Petro USD feeding oil terminals, Sea choking points, vulnurable AD/ISR bases/assets (remember IRGC strikes at US in Iraq, Israel, Qatar), regional political and military chaos (see what happened in Iraq recently, Maliki is back). War is multidomain not just shooting at eachother. Almost entire forum here has zero understanding of what proper war is, biggets factor of which is money. Some stupid user yesterday was telling me how Iran should establish "air-superiority" over US lol.

Sure, but there's no point in discussing the "what might or could potentially exist" scenarios. The US might have super weapons that can magically disable all Iranian weapons in the blink of an eye. Is that really worth discussing now?

Iran has a lot of options that "in theory" can be used for ending the war fast. I have always been an advocate of the madman strategy for Iran, after acquiring nuclear deterrence. But the madman strategy doesn't seem to be the first choice for the Iranian regime. They had never lived up to their threats and most of them have too much collateral in the West and Arab states for these hypothetical scenarios.

Closing the Strait of Hormuz, destroying the very vulnerable economies of Persian Gulf Arab states, destroying the oil and gas facilities of the Persian Gulf Arab states after launching pre-emptive strike against the US forces preparing to attack Iran, etc. All of these things are possible, but how likely are they?

None of these scenarios are likely to happen per the previous record of Iran's conflicts with the US or Israel, but that's just an assumption and can be proven wrong.

 

[Meengla]

The Arab countries will fully cooperate with the US. And not only they will cooperate with the US, they will aid the US as well.
Qatar was the country that enabled the assassination of Gen. Soleimani in Iraq. And that happened when Qatar needed Iran really badly due to their diplomatic tensions with Saudi Arabia. Do you seriously think Qatar will say no to Trump now?

You seem to be living in the past. Much has changed in last 2-3 years alone. Americans didn't need such a massive naval armada during the Iraq War 2003 because some Arab countries were providing land bases and more. As of now, only Jordan is providing much land based assets; the rest don't want to because Iran has rightly threatened them. In fact, Saudi Arabia is in the forefront of a war against Iran.

Iran has every legal right and justification to launch a pre-emptive strike now. The US has publicly and officially announced that they have deployed their forces in the region to attack Iran. That's a legitimate reason for a pre-emptive attack. But will it happen? No.

I have yet to see a single pro peace/ pro Iran analyst who is advocating for a pre-emptive strike. As it is, there is fear of Israel staging a false flag to make that as pre-emptive strike by Iran.
So, no, not happening from Iran's side because that would be falling in Netanyahu's trap!

 

[ShapurII]

You seem to be living in the past. Much has changed in last 2-3 years alone. Americans didn't need such a massive naval armada during the Iraq War 2003 because some Arab countries were providing land bases and more. As of now, only Jordan is providing much land based assets; the rest don't want to because Iran has rightly threatened them. In fact, Saudi Arabia is in the forefront of a war against Iran.

You don't believe that for real, do you?

I have yet to see a single pro peace/ pro Iran analyst who is advocating for a pre-emptive strike. As it is, there is fear of Israel staging a false flag to make that as pre-emptive strike by Iran.
So, no, not happening from Iran's side because that would be falling in Netanyahu's trap!

You know why it doesn't happen? Because Iran knows that it cannot play the madman. There is no reason to be afraid of a false flag operation when it is your legal right to take pre-emptive action against a country whose president has publicly stated that they're preparing to attack you. False flag? If we could, we would've done it and accepted responsibility for it proudly. But we can't.

 

[ToddE]

Culprit seems to be involved

 

[StrategicBear]

I am well aware of the existence of Shahid Mahdavi. It was a commercial vessel that has been converted to be a drone/helicopter carrier.
It is extremely slow, super huge and has extremely limited maneuverability. It's just a huge chunk of metal with just 4 Navvab missiles + a gun and no long-range air defense. If you want to use the word sitting duck in war, this is the real one.


But what anti-ship missiles can reach 2,500 km?
Qassem-Basir has a range of 1,200 km (I thought it was 1,500 km but I double-checked it on Wikipedia and it says 1,200 km). Also, it is slow in terminal phase.


But the USN will not approach Iranian shores before it has suppressed our littoral assets. And it will not get that close anyway. Only close enough to launch Tomahawk missiles.

Why 2500km? OSINT sources on X clearly shows one of the USN aircraft carriers still within less than 1000kms away from Iran's coast. If I'm not mistake, around the waters of Oman?

 

[ToddE]

Sure, but there's no point in discussing the "what might or could potentially exist" scenarios. The US might have super weapons that can magically disable all Iranian weapons in the blink of an eye. Is that really worth discussing now?

Iran has a lot of options that "in theory" can be used for ending the war fast. I have always been an advocate of the madman strategy for Iran, after acquiring nuclear deterrence. But the madman strategy doesn't seem to be the first choice for the Iranian regime. They had never lived up to their threats and most of them have too much collateral in the West and Arab states for these hypothetical scenarios.

Closing the Strait of Hormuz, destroying the very vulnerable economies of Persian Gulf Arab states, destroying the oil and gas facilities of the Persian Gulf Arab states after launching pre-emptive strike against the US forces preparing to attack Iran, etc. All of these things are possible, but how likely are they?

None of these scenarios are likely to happen per the previous record of Iran's conflicts with the US or Israel, but that's just an assumption and can be proven wrong.

War is multi-domain and everything becomes possible if other party escalates. So far US and Iranian engagements have lacked escalation from both sides for the reasons I stated. But saying that options do not exist is stupidity. If we go by your theory of just bundling up because enemy is a superpower than why even build a military complex ? Ukraine should have welcomed Russians in Kiev instead of fighting.

 

[Meengla]

You know why it doesn't happen? Because Iran knows that it cannot play the madman. There is no reason to be afraid of a false flag operation when it is your legal right to take pre-emptive action against a country whose president has publicly stated that they're preparing to attack you. False flag? If we could, we would've done it and accepted responsibility for it proudly. But we can't.

Firstly, I do believe that the Arab countries don't want an attack on Iran. Those days are gone; Geopolitics changes.

As to the quoted part, I don't think you are making sense. What is your point? Are you saying a mere 'legal right' is good enough to fall into Netanyahu's trap? This is a Superpower we are talking about!

 

[ToddE]

 

[StrategicBear]

I also believe IRGC still keeps Top Secret "Trump Card" weapons they have not revealed publicly yet. It's co-developed and co-researched with either Chinese or NK engineers and scientists.

 

[mulj]

Here is a hypothetical but likely scenario for the war, if it happens:

1. The USN will stay way out of the range of Iran's AshBMs initially.
2. The USAF and the IAF will bomb Iranian missile sites and OTH radars in the opening hour of the war aggressively. They will also assassinate top commanders of Iranian forces, particularly the IRGC.
3. After Iran's OTH radars and missile sites have been neutralized, the USN will get close to Iranian shores to strike the remaining targets using cruise missiles, particularly the police, Basij and anti-riot forces.

In the meantime, Kurdish and Baluch separatists will start attacking Iranian border cities while the remaining anti-IR forces in Tehran, Isfahan, Shiraz and other major cities will attack police stations and strategic targets like the IRIB, the parliament, the airports, etc.

This way the US will incur minimal casualties and Trump will be able to save face by saying that he did take care of Iran's BM threat and helped Iranians.

You know that Iran now has real time data when attack is conducted?
By knowing that c&c will be much easier with lot of options for counter attacks and air defence ambushes.