ToddE
Trusted Member
Iran won’t surrender before the 40 day Anniversary of Khamenai. It’s bad optics.
The problem with killing Khamenai is it puts Iran in an awkward position if it negotiates. It can actually destabilize the republic more than the war itself if it negotiates too soon as it appears the system is too weak and with no honor to fight for their spiritual, political, religious leader of the revolution.
Thus the war will simply go on. Israel and U.S. sortie rates will begin to drop. More and more F-22’s and F-35s will enter maintenance protocol and won’t be flight ready which means more and more reliance on F-15’s and older aircraft. People forget how many hours of maintenance and F-22 needs for every flight hour. And right now the military is stressing these 5th gen fighters on 24/7 duty.
So there is a point within the coming days that Iran should theoretically if it still has a decent drone and missile stockpile, be able to create more and more damage on PGCC and Israeli assets.
The first week or two always goes to the attacking power. If the defender can survive and reorganize then the real war begins. (See Ukraine-Russia)
War will go on until Russia re-enters the oil n gas market in full swing, which this war was mostly about. They just won back two huge markets through Trump. Weapons do not matter that much if prolonging is needed.








