Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[dr.coomer]

start with tone down the rhetoric i.e. death to America and death to Israel. Moderate, pivot to business and development. Nothing works as well as opportunity for global investors to generate ROI and when US investors have their money in Iran it's likely to influence US policy more than missiles and drones. Iran has leverage in natural resources, young educated work force and a large population. I think Iranians at their core are business people probably from centuries of being at the hub of global trade. Look at China in the 70's and look at them now. They are laser focused on development and once they achieved sufficient traction they invested in defense. Not that China is perfect but at least they focused on themselves and prioritized their own nation.

Iran is falling behind in the transition to new energy. We are not far from a future where oil and gas become less important and consequently generate less revenue. Saudi is preparing for that future and Iran is squandering her natural wealth on side quests beyond her borders instead of investing in herself.

Not to throw a wrench into your post, but there are several things that need to be addressed:

1. China had the century of humiliation (opium war, boxer rebellion, etc), Japanese occupation, and the Chinese civil war. This has been cemented in the Chinese psyche that they will never again would want to be subjected to occupation hence why the CPC was laser focused on rapidly developing out with the explicit goal of having a powerful enough economy coupled with a self sufficient military and having nukes also helps. This is also a reason why any sort of representative government fails because it regresses into a cult of personality where the only incentive is to get votes for the next election cycle.
2. China ultimately is not a threat to Israel, which is what the US has focused on for the past 60+ years and thus need to view Iran from the lens of how the US government would approach the mideast/west asia as long as it benefits Israel.
3. Iran tried to open up to US investment multiple times under the "reformist" leaders (JCPOA, which ended up being a sham) and was more than willing to help the US immediately after 9/11 only to be labeled part of the axis of evil by GWB (if you lived in the US long enough you would remember this).
4. Iran was always on the chopping block hence Gen. Wesley Clark's famous statement "5 countries within 5 years".
5. Syria, Libya, and Iraq had good relations with the US/EU in trade and in other areas of cooperation...well we saw how those countries went.
6. Iran has been focused on building out self sufficiency of their economy, but because of sanctions certain items are harder to come by or export to different countries. This causes a rippling effect which leads to an increase of insider threats and corruption within the country's economy. Now there are other issues, but sanctions are the elephant in the room.
7. We already have an example of countries like Jordan and Egypt that have gone the route of getting US investment, but are highly dysfunctional and stagnant economies for many reasons one of which is due to out of touch boomers/older gen xers not giving opportunities to the younger generation (millenials, gen zers), hence why it is very common for people with masters degrees either leaving or working dead end jobs.
8. Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf Arab countries don't really have a future in anything. Their economies are run by foreigners, they rely on consulting companies to handle planning, and they have incompetent militaries (IYKYK). For example Saudi Arabia wasted billions on the "Line" project that will most likely fail or has already failed (too lazy to look it up at the moment)
9. In the mid-east/west asia providing money to US doesn't work, I can't remember if it was a Qatari or a Kuwaiti Emir that said something on the line of "We gave billions of dollars to the US only for them to focus more on Israel" a couple days ago. To be in even considered a viable negotiating partner one needs to have credible deterrence through whatever means necessary.
10. The only country you could possibly use as an example is Turkey, but they too have also been subject to sanctions, restrictions, economic woes. Most likely they will be on the chopping block, hence the rhetoric coming from Naftali Bennett.
11. Fossil fuels wont ever go away due to the high energy capacity factor and its uses in many different industries such as steel, semiconductors, plastics. One could invest in solar, wind, hydro but those have restrictions i.e. with solar/wind the capacity factor ranges from 20-30%. With the exception of hydro, solar and wind aren't suitable for powering the real economy (think manufacturing).
12. Coming to nuclear energy, now Iran has been trying to build them out (for good reason) only for the US/Israel either bombing or sabotaging those powerplants because of some vague nuclear threat. Same thing happened with Syria and Iraq, both of those countries had nuclear power plants/reactors only for them to bombed by Israel.
13. The other issue with Nuclear is getting the fuel for the reactors, one could rely on another country to provide the fuel, but that adds an external dependency.

I could go in more details like assassination of intellectuals in mid east countries
TLDR: The game was rigged from the start

 

[clutch]

trumpy is a lying moron, better to ignore what he says

Exactly. He is a pathological liar. He is apparently deploying the Marines for a land (covert) invasion.

Never believe anything that comes out of the mouth of the pro-zionists.

Just like nuttyYahoo... They are all proven liars

 

[Persian Gulf]

- Saudi Arabia opens King Fahd Air Base to the Americans

almost time to say hello to our little friend in Yemen

 

[clutch]

A good off ramp will be for Trump to share Bibi’a coordinates for Iran to take him out, and Iran can give America and itself an off ramp to call it a tie.

Maybe get Ben Gvir the cuck as well as part of a deal. Throw in Witkoff and Kushner as well for good measure.

Such a betrayal will expose the Epstein files where Trump allegedly raped 12 year olds.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Not to throw a wrench into your post, but there are several things that need to be addressed:

1. China had the century of humiliation (opium war, boxer rebellion, etc), Japanese occupation, and the Chinese civil war. This has been cemented in the Chinese psyche that they will never again would want to be subjected to occupation hence why the CPC was laser focused on rapidly developing out with the explicit goal of having a powerful enough economy coupled with a self sufficient military and having nukes also helps. This is also a reason why any sort of representative government fails because it regresses into a cult of personality where the only incentive is to get votes for the next election cycle.
2. China ultimately is not a threat to Israel, which is what the US has focused on for the past 60+ years and thus need to view Iran from the lens of how the US government would approach the mideast/west asia as long as it benefits Israel.
3. Iran tried to open up to US investment multiple times under the "reformist" leaders (JCPOA, which ended up being a sham) and was more than willing to help the US immediately after 9/11 only to be labeled part of the axis of evil by GWB (if you lived in the US long enough you would remember this).
4. Iran was always on the chopping block hence Gen. Wesley Clark's famous statement "5 countries within 5 years".
5. Syria, Libya, and Iraq had good relations with the US/EU in trade and in other areas of cooperation...well we saw how those countries went.
6. Iran has been focused on building out self sufficiency of their economy, but because of sanctions certain items are harder to come by or export to different countries. This causes a rippling effect which leads to an increase of insider threats and corruption within the country's economy. Now there are other issues, but sanctions are the elephant in the room.
7. We already have an example of countries like Jordan and Egypt that have gone the route of getting US investment, but are highly dysfunctional and stagnant economies for many reasons one of which is due to out of touch boomers/older gen xers not giving opportunities to the younger generation (millenials, gen zers), hence why it is very common for people with masters degrees either leaving or working dead end jobs.
8. Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf Arab countries don't really have a future in anything. Their economies are run by foreigners, they rely on consulting companies to handle planning, and they have incompetent militaries (IYKYK). For example Saudi Arabia wasted billions on the "Line" project that will most likely fail or has already failed (too lazy to look it up at the moment)
9. In the mid-east/west asia providing money to US doesn't work, I can't remember if it was a Qatari or a Kuwaiti Emir that said something on the line of "We gave billions of dollars to the US only for them to focus more on Israel" a couple days ago. To be in even considered a viable negotiating partner one needs to have credible deterrence through whatever means necessary.
10. The only country you could possibly use as an example is Turkey, but they too have also been subject to sanctions, restrictions, economic woes. Most likely they will be on the chopping block, hence the rhetoric coming from Naftali Bennett.
11. Fossil fuels wont ever go away due to the high energy capacity factor and its uses in many different industries such as steel, semiconductors, plastics. One could invest in solar, wind, hydro but those have restrictions i.e. with solar/wind the capacity factor ranges from 20-30%. With the exception of hydro, solar and wind aren't suitable for powering the real economy (think manufacturing).
12. Coming to nuclear energy, now Iran has been trying to build them out (for good reason) only for the US/Israel either bombing or sabotaging those powerplants because of some vague nuclear threat. Same thing happened with Syria and Iraq, both of those countries had nuclear power plants/reactors only for them to bombed by Israel.
13. The other issue with Nuclear is getting the fuel for the reactors, one could rely on another country to provide the fuel, but that adds an external dependency.

I could go in more details like assassination of intellectuals in mid east countries
TLDR: The game was rigged from the start

very good summary

 

[sharreman10]

- Saudi Arabia opens King Fahd Air Base to the Americans

almost time to say hello to our little friend in Yemen

Let's destroy King Fahd Air Base too.

 

[CrniLabud]

The entire US ponzi scheme of an economy is based on GCC selling energy in USD, of which much of it goes through the strait. The US cannot survive in it’s current state without the strait. Trump is an idiot who just disrespects basic intelligence of people.

 

[FUB]

 

[Hakwa Nadro]

Mr Grok says it is AI

 

[shapurzolaktaf]

- Saudi Arabia opens King Fahd Air Base to the Americans

almost time to say hello to our little friend in Yemen

Aramco will say hello to Yemeni missiles and drones soon.

 

[RocketLaw]

 

[SilentWatch]

Trumps trying calm oil futures markets until the Marines arrive on station - he needs to keep this simmering for one more week or so

Trump in his ego has been trapped in the ladder of escalation

He can’t accept defeat- how will a ‘wind down of military ops’ loom when Iran still keep firing

and are already opening up to US troops - their ego can’t have a strong Iran across the seashore

It’s all an ego war now

 

[shapurzolaktaf]

Iran denies having Spare oil to sell, says Scott Bessent is trying to manipulate oil price.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Let's destroy King Fahd Air Base too.

a few cluster bombs should help

but we really need to target:

- oil and gas infra (their east to west pipeline)
- project 2030 landmarks
- international projects
- palaces of their fat princes

 

[Aggregate]

Highly unlikely Iran agrees to a ceasefire without:

A) addressing issue of reparations

B) addressing issue of sanctions

C) addressing issue of future attacks

D) addressing issue of nuclear program

It would be a big mistake on the side of Iran if they agree to anything less than treaty level agreement.

Or else just like the June war, US/Israel will re arm, re strategize, re group etc and come back in months to years.

Iran cannot keep playing the stait of Hormuz card an infinite amount of times.

Thus this war must be a war that leads to a permanent conclusion one way or another. And I said this war should have been done back in 2023-2024 when Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, Iraqi PMU, Syria were all at near full strength.

Instead many Iranian users said it was implausible for us to fight America and Israel at the same time and dismissed any notion that the “enemy” would eventually bring the fight to Iran directly. They seemed to think Iran still had enough deterrence. Unfortunately since 2020 Solemani killing all they showed Trump was in fact weakness in his mind.

I think its important to keep the larger picture in view here though. This war is not about either Iran or the US winning. Pentagon did wargaming of US boots on the ground many times and they came up with a major loss, in every case. Why are both Gulf and US are constantly busy shooting themselves in the feet by forcing Iran to fight them ? The only one winning here is the country that wanted and carefully planned this all ... that is israel.

Nethanyahu a few days back said something to his people, on the lines of "we will emerge as the single biggest superpower of the East, after this war". Which sounded very odd at the time, but he has a habit of announcing his plans in a very sinister way and despite how much everyone hates israel, most o the time, israel is able to pull it all off. If one looks at this war:

• Gulf states are getting devastated
• Iran, which is the least to be blamed for this all, is still facing long lasting damages in terms of infra & economy.
• EU, East Asia, especially China are losing hugely in terms of economy.
• US is losing its influence in the Middle East, as well its military might (which was at least a protection for Gulf, until Trump came over).
• Other than a few missiles falling here and there, israel is not really suffering any consequences.

What Nethanyahu might be looking from this war, especially considering his statement (and what many Western analysts have now started to believe), is that israel is lookig at becoming the US of the East, with all of the Middle East resources at its command and all governments under its defacto control (much like Lebanon/Syria/Jordan/Middle East, etc) once both Iran is weakened and US control of the region is gone. Gulf states have no power left to decide their fate anyway. Now israel is absorbing some losses and letting the rest play out as all sides weaken.

In this all, unless the US wakes up and starts thinking in its own benefit, or else, Iran goes for the nukes or China intervenes in some significant way to protect its economy, nothing much is gonna happen other than everyone losing while israel expands its influence.

Another possibility that many are mentioning that Iran inflicts so much economical damages via Hormuz, while resisting all attempts at opening it up, that the global powers cannot hold up anymore and have to intervene in the form of some regional alliance, to contain israel and its devastation. All other deals, ceasefires, etc are pointless and short term. Nethanyahu and israelies might be the worst scum history has ever produced, but they do know very well, as to what they're doing, otherwise.