Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Al-Zakir]

- Saudi Arabia opens King Fahd Air Base to the Americans

almost time to say hello to our little friend in Yemen

Saud family lost the moral and religious rights to be the custodian of two holy masjid.

 

[Aggregate]

Is is so increasingly unbearable to see so much of Iran's valuable infrastructure getting slowly eroded to death, for real. Norouz PIrouz to everyone but this one is by far the most bitter I ever had tonight, right on the eve of a very painful spectacle of destruction of the Caspian Fleet and its precious shipbuilding units.

For the most knowledgeable people in this forum, I have an "industrial" question.
Let's assume, no matter how unlikely, that the war somehow came to a mid-term end say in a matter of a week.

How long do you believe it would take Iran, considering the known, reported and measured damages to its industrial base, to at least reestablish its maritime and port infrastructure to the point of being able to refurbish or produce anything again ? rebuild its airports without even talking about aircraft acquisitions down the line ?

I know that most of the Missile and drone R&D, Assembly, storage and production chains are well -protected in underground "cities" and bar some of the elements that cannot be interred for safety reasons like thruster testing and propellant mixing, so I'm that *that* worried, even though we don't know obviously the extent to which they've been able to preserve those machine-tool and assets.

BUt what of Shiraz and the optics industries that once again were bombed, even more heavily than the 12-day war ? do you guys have any idea of emergency "desist and preserve" protocols in effect, existing or enacted to protect their most valuable components where feasible ? what of the pharmaceutical machines that were among the first to be destroyed by the IAF in the opening days of the war, as cowardly and fascistic a fashion as they always do ? I guess the aerospace sector is dead and buried for a long time, ditto the nuclear apparatus, bar maybe Bushehr.

This is so horrible to watch, and I suppose I'm trying to rationalize as a means of coping but still, those aren't completely pointless to ask. So many things they destroyed already, it's truly heartbreaking. Everything lost is lost for the nation, the flag, not even a given political regime that one may like or dislike. It's Iran getting physically torn apart bit by bit, notwithstanding its heroic resilience and resistance.

Are we talking the 10-year ballpark ? 15 ? 20 ? more ? unfixable at some levels bar major partnerships and Chinese-supported "Marshall plans" ? (that I doubt very much considering the let-down and minimal support during this war anyway....)

Thanks people.

Unless Iran extracts significant amounts, through ships passing via Hormuz, nobody is gonna compensate Iran otherwise or help Iran rebuild.

This whole war ending, as well as Iran's ability to rebuild, now solely depends on how well and strongly Iran can keep control of Hormuz and let the world foot the bill of expensive oil as Iran taxes all shipping in order to help rebuild whatever it has lost. That is the only way Iran is gonna recover whatever it is losing.

Because in case if control on Hormuz is not retained, then not only will the opportunity be gone but also there will be no end to hostilities against Iran to allow with any recovery. So lets hope Iran keeps knocking the teeth out of anyone that tries to take control of Hormuz and then the world can suffer for supporting israel by paying for expensive fuels and thank israel for it, for all anyone cares.

 

[Dil Pakistan]

The $5000 that Israel uses also come from USA.

 

[That_Guy]

She’s a sellout scum. Too little too late.

This is her attempt to not go down with the ship.

She knows that once this whole debacle is over, Trump's allies are going to prison over this, even if Trump doesn't.

 

[vizier]

I find these types of news more dangerous than saudi sites hit and saudi defence pact invocation possibilities. A crash with loose ends pointing at Iran would add Turkey, Pakistan into arabic countries mix which already have some hostile stance against Iran. Turkey and Pakistan has a deeper relationship than Saudi-Pak ties which is mostly economical.

isreal would like a muslim nato narrative against Iran which would find mass public audience in muslim countries as a security pact. But at the end everyone destroying each other where isreal only stands tall afterwards. Arab nations can also keep out of this if they dont allow airspace - land used against Iran like Turkey does not allow.

Some measures that needs to be combined together:

-invoke Russian radars in Latakia to monitor the source of ballistic trajectories. These should be compared to usa supplied radar data that always points back at Iran to accuse Iran. Putin san wont be doing anything against isreal so he should chill and this monitoring wont be helping Iran either but to detect trajectories and disprove false flags as a secondary objective radar source.

-Iran calculating ballistic trajectory effectively so that it is much further away from Turkish airspace while hitting isreal.

 

[RocketLaw]

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are moving closer to supporting the US-Israel war effort by expanding base access and preparing for a longer conflict

Officials say attitudes in Riyadh now favor supporting the US war to punish Iran, but both states warn that direct offensive action could open a can of worms



I don't know how Iran will survive with so many opponents?

 

[Aggregate]

Russia Sanctions lifted, Iran Sanctions lifted .. while throwing Ukraine under the bus & fighting war for Israel and simultaneously reversing the sanctions that they placed to help Israel.

lol they are so deep in this BS of Israel that they are now fighting their own selves.

Identity crisis at strategic levels.

 

[BigMela2onin]

I don't know how Iran will survive with so many opponents?

Is this sarcastic? The US already had full access to UAE and SA territory. Militarily they have next to nothing to offer and are extremely vulnerable to counter-attack.

 

[clutch]

Kent definitely put it on the line. As did his wife. She was killed by a suicide bomber in Syria.

She was likely killed by the Israeli linked Takfeeri ISIS... And that is why he knows who the real evil party is in this conflict. And it's not Iran....

It's Israel and it allied Takfeeri ISIS Al Qaeeda. The current Zionist poodle leader of Syria Jolani.

 

[mythbuster]

Posters here are unwittingly portraying Israel as omnipotent , omniscient and omnipresent entity that she is not..... your glorious rants are helping neither the Iranians , the Arabs or the Muslims at large..... scaremongering aside , there will be no pax Judea ... Israel's present adventure is akin to last kick of the dying horse..... middle east belongs to Muslims , it's future trajectory will be decided by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan... unfortunately , Iran overplayed her hand and is left with no cards to stay in the game .

 

[Master Chief]

She’s a sellout scum. Too little too late.

Careful what you wish for.

Her ultimate objectives are no different to Trump's.

She's a highly insidious person and more dangerous than Trump because she is calculating, rather than reckless.

Moreover, she is not compromised by Epstein allegations (even if he is not a nonce himself, Trump still needs to constantly shield himself from the distraction of this background contextual saga).

Lastly, Tulsi is vehemently pro-India, which Trump is definitely not.

 

[shapurzolaktaf]

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are moving closer to supporting the US-Israel war effort by expanding base access and preparing for a longer conflict

Officials say attitudes in Riyadh now favor supporting the US war to punish Iran, but both states warn that direct offensive action could open a can of worms



I don't know how Iran will survive with so many opponents?

We will destroy their water desalinations if they go too far and Houthis will join the war.

 

[Shags101]

So is it me or does sound like a hint of desperation

 

[clutch]

Russia Sanctions lifted, Iran Sanctions lifted .. while throwing Ukraine under the bus & fighting war for Israel and simultaneously reversing the sanctions that they placed to help Israel.

lol they are so deep in this BS of Israel that they are now fighting their own selves.

Identity crisis at strategic levels.

The one month suspension of the Oil Sanctions is a desperate move by the US to get some sort of flexibility from Iran to de-escalate the war. It's probably a unilateral move by the USA. Pretty pathetic and exposes their vulnerability.

 

[Bengal71]

Pakistan isn’t getting involved. Saudi Arabia will be hoarding cash in 2 months at this rate.

This was always a transactional affair — cash for [defensive] protection. So far Pakistan has seen very little in this affair and has a large Shiite population and a population that is very supportive of Iran. Dangerous for Pakistan generals to throw their lot with a sinking ship for a few dollar bills that might no longer even come.

Bro, Pakistan doesn't want to get involved but has some serious compulsion. So, they may be compelled to join. See Irfan Baloch's post, he summarized it quite well.

thanks for laying out the ground work for me.
I will try to be conscise as I cant add anything futher or repeat what you said, but I want to highlight a velnurabilty that affects Pakistan and Iran. that is when Pakistan enters this war on Saudis demands.

this one-sided defense arrangement with the Saudis. (I call it walk the plank while a shotgun is aimed on your back by saudis)
What exactly are we honoring? The Saudis are demanding Pakistan activate a deal that was apparently sealed with two currencies: the blood of Pakistani soldiers who would fight Iran, and the blood of ordinary Pakistani citizens who will bear the cost of a direct conflict—both from the war itself and from the advantage India and its proxies (Afghan Taliban, BLA, TTP) will inevitably take the moment our western front ignites.

The structure of this arrangement has always been asymmetrical. When the Afghan Taliban attacked Pakistan from across the border, where was the Saudi division? When India conducted airstrikes , did Riyadh activate anything? No. The deal only seems to work one way: when Saudi interests are in play, Pakistan is expected to show up with its soldiers. When Pakistan bleeds, the Saudis don't even send a statement (ok they do but it can be confused with a staement from Jameca).
Whether by design or consequence, look at what's unfolded.
Israel provoked Iran into attacking GCC economic infrastructure—followed by false flags, followed by follow-up strikes on Iranian oil and gas when Tehran was not retaliating enough against the Gulf states. Now, Israel has successfully forced Pakistan into the war through the Saudi interface. That's the strategic victory for Tel Aviv: they don't need to fight Iran directly. They just activated a chain where Pakistan does it for them, bound by a deal we signed decades ago and can't walk away from because of dollars. now imagine the Israeli's and indians rubbing their hands with anticipation, their two worst enemies might fight each other because their common economic and strategic ally i.e. Saudi Arabia wills it on Pakistan.

you know, our political parties and clergy (mostly Deobandi) has always termed Pakistan afight against TTP as mercernary war for dollars. our oppostion party and the clerics have always lambasted Pakistan army for fighting "own people" while being mute when their "own brothers" conducted massive terror operations.
I'm going to say something that will make some people uncomfortable. This will be the second real example of the Pakistan Army functioning as a mercenary force—doing the bidding of a foreign power, fighting a war that isn't ours. I am not talking about the fight against the Khawarij. That was, and always will be, Pakistan's war. The TTP, Al-Qaeda, the Afghan Taliban factions that target us—that's our fight, no questions asked.

But the first time we crossed that line was Bahrain. Pakistanis went in to quell an uprising, got paid for it, and then became shy when invited into the Yemen meatgrinder. The Saudis have not forgotten that hesitation. Now they are calling in the favor, and the price of saying no again may be more than this state can afford.

This isn't to question the bravery of Pakistani soldiers. It is to point out that when national defense policy is dictated by the need to protect remittance flows and loan rollovers, strategic autonomy is effectively outsourced. The Pakistan Army—the institution we all revere—is being reduced to a force that picks its wars not based on national interest but based on which foreign capital it cannot afford to lose.

let me tie it all together after Gen Munir threw an iftar dinner to our Shia community leaders and clerics.
General Munir met with Shia clerics and elders. He was not asking for permission. Hehas laid out the strategic compulsion.

his message was simple: the Pakistani state has no choice but to accept Saudi demands to confront Iran. how? that remains to be seen, will Pakistan man the oil fields and borders or will it send in its forces to attack and destroy the drone and missile sites attacking Saudis (something that Israelis and Americans have not fully succeeded but Pakistan is supposed to do so?) All the diplomacy, all the requests for calm, all the behind-the-scenes efforts to de-escalate—none of it has been good enough for Riyadh. Pakistan is now at a point where it must choose the lesser of two evils.

The options were laid out clearly:

• Option one: resist Saudi pressure and risk the immediate deportation of nearly two million Pakistani workers, the end of Saudi loans, and the collapse of a foreign reserve framework that has been propping up this country for years.
• Option two: comply with Saudi demands, confront Iran, make a third hostile neighbor, and indirectly hand the BLA, TTP, Afghan Taliban, and India exactly what they want—chaos along the entire western front while our forces are stretched beyond breaking point.

The Shia leadership was effectively told that diplomacy has run its course. And that Iran must not mistake Pakistan's restraint for weakness when the order comes it might have to do something which Americans and other GCC countries have not done ye (and maybe wont do). enter Iran from the east, yes its risky but Saudis are willing to risk Pakistani lives.
Let's be clear what a confrontation with Iran actually means.

A front with Iran means Pakistan's entire western border, from Chabahar to the Torkham Gate becomes a single theater. The BLA and the TTP will not fight Iran. They will exploit the redeployment of Frontier Corps and army units away from Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. India, meanwhile, will use its Chabahar leverage to tighten the noose while our attention is fixed elsewhere.

This isn't just a war with Iran. It's the ungoverned space crisis multiplied by three. now make a guess, will Saudis lose any sleep over this scenario? I know our military planners are not having much sleep.

Finally
in short, Pakistan is cooked—much to the delight of our neighboring adversaries and the domestic doom-mongers who compete with Afghan and Indian trolls to spell Pakistan's collapse.

But the tragedy is not trolls. The tragedy is that a state with the region's most battle-hardened army has allowed its strategic choices to be defined by remittance diplomacy and loan rollovers. Gen Munir's message to the Shia clerics was clear: the Saudis have drawn a line, and Pakistan must choose the 'lesser evil.' The problem is that both options—capitulation or confrontation—lead to the same place: a fragmented western front, emboldened militants, and a strategic vacuum that India and its proxies will fill.

Pakistan fought the Khawarij because that was our war. If we fight Iran, it won't be. And everyone from Tehran to New Delhi to Tel Aviv—already knows it.