Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Bengal71]

But Iran doesn't use Chabahar or even Qeshm to disrupt shipping. It can do this by firing drones or missiles from anywhere in Iran. Capturing Qeshm exposes US troops to Iranian fire and is a propaganda win, but I don't see how it helps them open the Strait.

The only possible objective I can foresee is that they plan to use the islands as leverage to force Iran to reopen the Strait (i.e., we will return the islands if/when you open the Strait).

I don't think Kharg is a plausible target. It's too small and deep into the Persian Gulf. And IRI would not hesitate to destroy the oil depots there to harm the US troops. IRI is resilient and can survive with lower oil exports for a while. the US has suppressed air defences successfully in south Iran, though, so they could land in Chabahar.

I just don't see how any form of ground invasion goes well for the US. maybe I'm wrong and Trump has a genius master plan that involves a limited ground invasion for a clear objective and with a clean exit plan, but I doubt it.

Maybe they will take Qeshm Island and stop Iranian oil export through the control of the gulf?

 

[ParthianLord]

Shipping companies now started paying the 2 million per ship and Iran is allowing now more of them to pass (after paying the fee)

 

[Zoyou]

 

[Falcon29]

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Read the statement in Arabic and it says without hesitation as opposed to without restraint. And no mention of heavy missile or drone attacks in the statement.

I think it's a way to help keep these fronts alive. In Lebanon it helps Hezbollah get breathing room.

In Gaza it would make IDF on alert and worried about any movements on the ground.

 

[omegalamba7xl9]

Jhonny of Trump

 

[Bengal71]

Honestly, Iran's winning card in this case is the Persian Gulf missile. It may not be able to sink an aircraft carrier, but it can undoubtedly sink any tanker any day.

I have good answers for intercepting Iranian drones, anti-ship missiles, cruise missiles or speedboats. But the Persian Gulf missile is really the game changer here.

How about hitting the landing vessels of marines before they land and while they are still in Arabian sea or Indian ocean?

 

[Dark Knight]

Get Dana White to get them in the octogon to decide, who decide's when this is over.

'Let's get it on'

 

[Oldenwisdom...قول بزرگ]

Israeli Media: "Netanyahu starts blaming Mossad Chief David Barnea for the War´s failure till now, none of its goal reached,and Iran is in a stronger position then before the War, Trump might leave the war any moment"

"Circles close to Netanyahu are calling for the replacement of Mossad chief David Barnea"

according israeli media sources :"
Mossad told Netanyahu the Iranian gov would fall within 1 week into the war and a "pro us military coup" would replace the mullah government"

Who is it that they wanted installed?
No names have trickled out except for some news pointing towards taking out potential replacement at the top.

I wonder if the revolution was a blowback for occurred during the first regime change... what makes anyone think that this wouldn't deliver an even greater blowback. Mossadegh was no religious leader or had reverence outside of his political office. Taking the first shot at the Supreme leader can cascade into a far greater blowback that may be generational in nature. While there are many Iranians with superficial attachment to their heritage, faith and state... a vast majority remain part and parcel of that land ... it's true heirs.

 

[RescueRanger]

but they have not taken control of towns.

You may wish to double check this. Look I am no fan of Israel but if we are going to have discussions it has be based on factual information not hearsay or dismissing research with one liners without any factual source.

 

[Musings]

Netanyahu wants it to continue. Hes in trouble at home and will end up in jail at home. The USA are looking at a get out with Iran - bitten off too much to chew. Netanyahu really thinks he is relevant without the support of the US? Iran will make mince meat out of Israel if the US leaves the war....

 

[Ali_Baba]

US is winning militarily, Iran is winning both politically & strategically.

Of course being bombed is not fun or a positive, but if the Iranian regime survives, this will be a huge loss for Israel. And for the US, Iran has it in a strategic chokehold via control of the Hormuz strait and pressure on Gulf infrastructure like oil & gas.

This is what happened in Vietnam where the Americans wont virtually every battle, but strategically lost the war and had to retreat.

 

[vizier]

There is a video circulating everywhere where Ukranian FPV drone took down a Russian Ka-52 and doube tapped the crew.

They didnt focus on manpads but their 358/359 are beast. I hope they have provided them to axis in numbers.

358 is very good against drones and to an extent medium altitude flying aircraft but it is hard to conceal and transfer so they are limited in numbers in Iraq. They have sufficient numbers in Iran and a10s wont be an issue there.
Manpads are good against low flying targets like a10s and helicopters and very easy to transfer and hide in buildings cars etc just like atgms.
fpv is good against land vehicles, infantry and to a limited degree slow flying helicopters. All must be produced in high quantities which is not very difficult for Iran.

Anti cruise missile needs a quicker reaction time than human control to guide the missiles so 358 wont cut it. Cheapest way I can think of is use the iir ground vehicle sensor of 358 to detect cruise missiles and an operator with EO guidance can paint the target with laser. A laser guided manpad can hit it. Infrared guided manpads can also hit cruise missiles if they get a lock on them but missile sensors would be more sophisticated. New igla variants can do it but Iran does not have them in numbers.

 

[MS Sandhu]

It will look even worse when Houthies reactivate the attacks over them.

Houthis are somewhat reluctant to close strait of bab al mandeb.

Do not why.

 

[Optical216]

This is what happened in Vietnam where the Americans wont virtually every battle, but strategically lost the war and had to retreat.

I would even argue Iran is giving alot of losses to US in the battle

First the whole IADS in middle east is dusted(radars and air defence of centcom)
Next AFM is reporting there are Atleast 20 us aircraft losses
Next they destroyed the prestige of f35
Next they are destroying every us base in the region
Next reportedly downed 15-20% of MQ9 Fleet


Next exposed US Navy's well incomeptence regarding the maintainence of the carriers(ford will take 14 months to recover)


They're punching way above their weight honestly

 

[PakFactor]

You may wish to double check this. Look I am no fan of Israel but if we are going to have discussions it has be based on factual information not hearsay or dismissing research with one liners without any factual source.
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Many forget that during last year's engagement between Israel and Hezbollah, the IDF focused intense bombardment on the Baalbek-Hermel Governorate (Beeka Valley), considered the storage location of the group's arsenal. This also led to the Hezbollah group being cut off from any resupply attempts from Syria. This further eroded their fighting capability.

Lastly, many in this PDF joked that the IDF didn't penetrate deeply into Southern Lebanon, previously. Still, they failed to see Israeli strategy, in taking high points, hills, and mountains, and calling in strikes to level Hezbollah, and preserving their troops. It took the Gaza strategy and applied it to Lebanon. [My post regarding this should still be in the Lebanon War Thread, or it was in my conversations with @LeGenD ]

As said before, the current Israel is a far different Israel from the old; it's shed its skin and isn't restrained. It has cemented its role as the dominant regional power.