Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Hassan Al-Somal]

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As I told you, the number is far higher than 1/3. Another reason a ground game is likely coming after one last “shock and awe”….they are running out of stand off munitions.

They can no longer feel confident that their planes can get into Iranian airspace without being shot down, so they're deploying these long-range, stand-off weapons.

 

[dbc]

U.S. military 'rule' was only in Kabul. Outside of about 30-mile radius it was Taliban or lawlessness. Somewhat similar in Iraq. Outside of 'Green Zone' it was all terrorist land. Even a potato head will know that U.S. Military can't rule Iran.

chalk and cheese. No one ruled Afghanistan back then and Afghanistan is ungovernable unless you're willing to ruthlessly kill civilians to achieve compliance. As for Iraq, the problem was self inflicted the ill advised de~bathification of Iraq created a vacuum and chaos ensued. Not saying Iran will be a cake walk, Iran will present its own unique challenges. However, I don't think the current administration aspires to govern Iran. The messaging from the WH has been consistent about not repeating historic mistakes of nation building. The Trump administration is looking for the keys to unlock a pliant IRGC. Perhaps such a key does not exist.

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

well if Hezbollah is what we can measure the ability of training and use of asymmetric fighting etc than we can assume many top irgc and quds men are of equal or superior but definitely not knocking seals or delta forces

Will defer to the Iranian members to confirm; I think Quds provided Hezbollah with quite a bit of training.

 

[Shags101]

There were several videos of an American C-130 refueling two Black Hawk helicopters at low altitude deep inside our territory yesterday. They were deep inside our territory for hours.

Yes I agree with that and we also saw the helicopter probably in the same video that was with the other helicopter and c 130 in smoke from being shot at no I’m saying about the extraction I hate twitter or “people with insider knowledge” rather get it from Al Jazeera or cnn

 

[kobra]

Is it it me or are most of these reports mostly unconfirmed or here say for the most part no actual confirmation one way or the other as of yet

So far only source on SM at least, is a guy named Jack Murphy, a rtd Military guy who does podcast online.

 

[Immortals]

Definitely better armed by far.
Artesh was believed to be better trained but I am not so sure about it anymore.

Artesh better trained? You smoking crack?

Artesh is entirely conscript force. Basically kids doing 18 months of duty then being discharged. Unlike US military it does not provide salary contracts or keep a noticeable standing force in peace time.

IRGC Is both conscript and maintains a standing force. Better trained. Better funded.

But overall the armed forces of Iran are one of the weakest branches. That’s because there is just is not enough money to go around.

Out of $20-25B annual budget probably 60-70% goes to IRGC and mostly to missiles. The rest goes to overall maintenance, food, pay, and upkeep of all the branches in the military.

If Irans GDP is $400B - it spends about 5% on defense. Not enough to modernize a force. Iran likely needs a military budget closer to 75B to begin modernizing and training its massive conscript force or moving to a contract model like the U.S.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Going into Week 6 of this war, I am yet to understand why we have been funding the Artesh for all these years.

The IRIAF was absolutely absent in both wars. The IRIN lost nearly all of its assets in a week. And I have seen nothing from the IRIGF and the IRIAA either.

And yes, if this is how we are going to perform on the ground, we will be cooked when a ground invasion starts.

agree. at least IRGC-N and IRGC-GF are firing SRBMs and drones every day

what on earth is the entire army doing? the navy and air force are giving us no information, and their commanders are invisible. Majid Mousavi is trying to make a new X account every day to threaten the Zionists, while these Artesh guys are nowhere to be found.

IMO, one HVT like a captured American pilot is more valuable than 1000 drone strikes in random buildings in Kuwait and Bahrain and Dubai. and even IRGC-ASF are failing to deter infrastructure strikes now, but I can't fault them for this, they are the only force doing anything and achieved some impressive blows against US bases in the region.

 

[RescueRanger]

For god's sake people, stay away from an active combat zone. Don't risk your precious life like this.

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[Kyussis]

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as usual Artesh simply does not exist and Iran does not have an army

so random civilians and tribesmen have to do their job for them

I respect Amir Hatami but this is a shit show and Artesh must be dissolved or merged with the IRGC

Keep your pants on. How do you know what the Army is or isn't doing when they are observing proper Op Sec by not posting everything on Social media?

 

[Persian Gulf]

There isn't even a propaganda value for the US in it though. Their Media is abusing Trump and Hegseth since yesterday at how their claims of Iran's ADs being taken out has fallen flat. The rescue of pilots is not being taken as as achievement anywhere in the US but rather as a save from fiasco that was yesterday with 2 jets shot down and 2 helicopters hardly escaping with damages. If you look at it form their shoes, they have nothing to celebrate in this all, other than having a sigh of relief that at least the pilots dragged their way back after being shot down.

As for Iran, all I have seen is Western Media speculating at what kind of air defenses Iran has suddenly unleashed on them. There was a whole article on CNN today discussing possibilities on how Iran is suddenly destroying their air superiority. That is the worry of the enemy, on top of the pilots.

Regarding the attack, this would definitely be a deterrent, not an encouragement. The US has now seen how one incident turned into a full on fiasco that took more than a day of searches, a jet shot down, putting so many assets at risk and firefights just to get a pilot back.

From all that I have read, there is no way that whatever happened since yesterday is gonna encourage them.

we shot down one 4th gen jet after more than a month, and suddenly we have a robust integrated air defence network again?

Saddam in 1991 shot down many many more jets than this

 

[Immortals]

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[Bharatah]

agree. at least IRGC-N and IRGC-GF are firing SRBMs and drones every day

what on earth is the entire army doing? the navy and air force are giving us no information, and their commanders are invisible. Majid Mousavi is trying to make a new X account every day to threaten the Zionists, while these Artesh guys are nowhere to be found.

IMO, one HVT like a captured American pilot is more valuable than 1000 drone strikes in random buildings in Kuwait and Bahrain and Dubai. and even IRGC-ASF are failing to deter infrastructure strikes now, but I can't fault them for this, they are the only force doing anything and achieved some impressive blows against US bases in the region.

It's a war strategy, and it's working. Forget conventional warfare. The Iranian Shiite army operates from various countries, and those inside Iran must remain in the shadows like ghosts.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Keep your pants on. How do you know what the Army is or isn't doing when they are observing proper Op Sec by not posting everything on Social media?

can you tell me what you have seen the air force do in Iran in the last 2 weeks?

 

[Immortals]

Saddam in 1991 shot down many many more jets than this

Because precision stand off munitions didn’t exist in 1991…..

 

[lightning f57]

There were several videos of an American C-130 refueling two Black Hawk helicopters at low altitude deep inside our territory yesterday. They were deep inside our territory for hours.

I think Iran will likely struggle handling a fast deployment action by the US where targets are not static.

But if your thinking from perspective of ground troops, you have to ask yourself what the purpose is. If for example they found where about of a high value person and wanted to kidnap them under suprise, unless his heavily fortified and protected Iran would likely struggle. But if its a land invasion to hold territory they have more time to organise properly and respond.

One thing if they think they can extract nuclear material in 24hrs they could do a daring operation, but I don't see that happening unless the location if nuke material and intel on state of the damage is accurate.