Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Meengla]

Pakistani analyst saying the Shahbaz Sharif's personal, public appeal to both Iran and America to wait for a couple of more weeks is after some possible understanding with both those two countries and that soon Russia and China may become the guarantors.
Who knows but Shahbaz plea is also on NY Times and just a few mins ago a WASP friend texted me about Pakistan's role, surprised he was.

English captions available. First 10 mins enough to watch.

 

[lightning f57]

I think it's a good proposal to begin with.

I dont think a ceasefire for 2 weeks is good for Iran, if Im Iranian I want to maximise pressure for a comprehensive agreement supported by world powers otherwise Israel will attack again when it wants.

 

[tsunset]

Good news....

MTV? Isn't that a reality show channel?

 

[Falcon29]

The person running the White House page is an American Jew

The 8PM deadline is now null and devoid. It is negotiations going late into night.

 

[kobra]

Posted 4 hours ago, on schedule so far as per deadline

 

[Shags101]

Walmart delivers.

Doing my taxes as we speak

 

[BigMela2onin]

I hope the US would install a secular system in Iran at least.

They're not going to put anything in place, they're going to take the oil.

 

[Falcon29]

 

[kobra]

A good red candle.....

 

[ShapurII]

I'll write this here, and we can judge it later:

If Iran accepts a ceasefire, before the ceasefire goes into effect, Israel will bomb the remaining targets on its list, excluding power plants. Even if the ceasefire gives them just one hour, they will use it.

 

[lightning f57]

Chinese understand it.

Unfortunately our Pm Shehbaz doesn’t suggested open strait of Hormuz as a good will gesture he must joking LMAO

I think Pak PM is doing right its a hard balancing act. But if you are Iran you was likely not accept opening the SOH with no concessions and then to be bombed 2 weeks later when they replenish their missile stocks get more troops in and go in for a land invasion.

That is the threat Iran faces, it needs a credible deterrence to accept a ceasefire. If China or Russia provided guarantee's on-top we could get there.

 

[HAIDER]

But Muslims leaders are silently watching ...

 

[Prophecy]

I have a question for the Iranian posters here: what did Iran do after the 12 day war last year to shore up its defences?

It focused on its missiles, but did not focus on improving its defences.

The US and Israel controlled the airspace from day 1 in the 12 day war last year, and they did the same this time as well.

We only got unconfirmed reports of Chinese assistance once the US/Israel had established their aerial dominance.

So these are mistakes Iran has to rectify, ceasefire or not.

If Iran is confident of delivering knockout blows to Israel and the US in the region and surviving itself in the process, I am sure Pakistan would have no issues with that outcome, but I am not confident Iran can achieve that right now.

It's not about knockout blows.

The proposal by Pakistani system seems like an attempt to putting down Iran softly rather than resisting and creating a mess and long term repercussions for the zionist aggressors.

 

[Goenitz]

I dont think a ceasefire for 2 weeks is good for Iran, if Im Iranian I want to maximise pressure for a comprehensive agreement supported by world powers otherwise Israel will attack again when it wants.

If only China could supply Iran with capabilities to hit Israel, then it would be.
For sure, the US and Israel will get re-equipped (some systems will take 6 months to get manufactured, though).
Iran can open Hormuz for trade but not for military passage.
If a ceasefire is announced. I think China and Russia should send some ministers to meet the new Khamnaei, followed by Pakistan for bereavement.
Also, flood the streets with journalists (not westerners, they will spy) from China, Asia, etc and some anti-war journalists like Abby or Tucker, if possible.

 

[r3alist]

Not even a day.
Not back to the drawing board. The strategy failed. They didn't work out the pitfalls... the policy behind remains intact. The negotiations are a sham when US position is maximalist... so what are the talks about? Surrender?

It is not about replenishing the reserves. It is about moving resources at the right locations. Getting troops and materiel... work out the available recon... as Iranians have no idea on what is or has been available... what or who are locked up behind the lines waiting for a thaw. It means the variables are unknown and US policy hasn't changed.

zion is not part of these negotiations and as before they will act first and manage fallout later. US doesn't collar the hound... it is the US that is in fact collard. So, there again ... no guarantees. No mediator can enforce anything either.

So it is a breather to let the wind escape ... get the much needes oil in the market and reset the clock that is about to run out. Not only globally but in the US as well. Where one thing of concern to many politicians are upcoming midterms... though not so for a lame duck orange.

Even a temporary cessation will have terms to it, and if they get broken then you leave the room and resume.


Yes of course that would mean the Americans can strategize but then it could be useful for Iran as well. It depends how cute you want to get about it, the biggest obstacle is making this happen for the first time, because no one wants to project weakness, but once talks have happened once it makes a path for the future more possible


Ultimately it depends on the vision for the route to the end game, there is one version where you have multiple rounds of talks, in between the fighting which ultimately brings everyone closer to an agreement, I don't really see that as ceding any leverage because Iran already has established control on the flow of ships, they maintain missile capability and in any case will be prepared for a ground invasion.


What is obviously discomforting is the alternate vision on rhetoric around an apocalyptic escalation spiral that just keeps on going without pause, and then somehow emerges a winner and a willing loser.