STRATEGIC VICTORY for IRI
Some Random thoughts ............
Alone yet undeterred against a 13 country alliance led by a hyper military power (US) and a great power (Israel) that controls most of the planet's political-economy and hence the governments.
Half a tonne HEU still inside Iran, Isfahan invasion failed/pilot coverup after which Trump foamed from his mouth
IRI is now an ambigously nuclear armed country unless likes of reformist cucks open their legs again for IAEA.
IRI still in power, more emboldened
Missile program not just sustained, got more and more extreme tested to the point that IRGCASF can be easily called the worlds most Battle-hardened and proven missile corps (against global hyper power). Might as well be the most well funded and technologically advanced too (4 types of Terminal Guidance, exo/endo atmospheric maneuvering, mono to tristaged, 4 trajectories)
Along with HEU, Missiles, IRI sustaining, chokeholds over Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb are massive gains of this war.
First time in its history, old mechanism petro-USD was struck directly, IRI did not fight a random shooting game which most people assume war is about, IRGC fought a strategic war which brought enemy to the table otherwise they had no problem continuing
IRGC pushed US's objective from Israeli objective of HEU, IRI collapse, IRGC collapse, Missiles to opening the strait to somehow save PGCC's petro in old mechanism petro USD. Not for a single day IRGC lost control of the escalation ladder
Military capabilities from both sides were unveiled but more from IRI, the other side's capabilities were obvious and not surprising.
Gen. Majid Mousavi of IRGCASF is to Missile and drone Warfare what Patton and Rommel were to Armoured warfare.
First time we saw a severe dent on US EW capabilities through 13 EW radars being taken out. They still have sea, air, space for regional early warning and search, tracking but its a start.
Classic A2/AD by IRIN and IRGCN, IRGCASF of Strait of Hormuz and PG, not allowing CBGs to enter the PG.
IRI was Russo - Chinese enforced offcourse which is what this war was all about
Yuan's first inflicted dent towards USD in 20% of the global market.
Oman the cunning IRI ally
Qatar might silently join IRI-Oman regimen over Strait of Hormuz Toll in future.
Hawks inside Iran are not happy because it ended (for now) short of full destruction of Power grids and Oil/Gas terminals, fields of adversaries along with US bases. Oil prices were shooting, their interceptors and costly armaments were depleting, It would have been a complete kill that would have made the enemy run away from the region but IRI's dovish admin came to table bit too early. Should have done it in 1-2 weeks.
IRGC's use of A2/AD and Conventional MAD, nuclear Ambiguity, Tit-for-Tat doctrines
Saudi oil attack was done to bring more weight to negotiation table in addition to Strait of Hormuz choke and potential threat of Red Sea closure.
There is a deep state inside Iran which we do not know of because Araghchi, Ghalibaf types are not capable of this
End of Pragmatics inside Iran, End of dove politics inside iran
Ultra and ethno Iranian and pluralist shia nationalism will rise up with some peripheral Sunni alliances of symbiotic nature
IRI will become Russia+DPRK.
Radical IRGC element has completed its coup over a large nation with most resource richest nations on planet.
IRI lost 47-53 aircrafts vs Enemy losing 78-91 aircrafts counting fighters, EW, Tankers, cargo, MALEs.
IRI's exports/earnings may very well hit close to 200 Billion USD (Worth Yuan) in 2026.
0 % impact on ~50 Missile cities.
Entire Artesh (including IRIN, IRIAF) and 20-40 Billion USD defence budget must be given to IRGC along with ISA the space agency.
US bases will slowly reduce in size and numbers in PGCC starting from Qatar.
IRGC tried its best to bait PGCC into joining offense so it may flatten their open bases but did not work. IRGC's baiting/false flagging game is amateur level compared to Israelis.
Equipment proving themselves in the war, Sejjil, K-4, Fattah-1, KS-1/2, Zohair, Shahed-136, Hadid-110, Majid AD, Missile 358/359 .... Possibly Taliyeh/Paveh LACM and ABu Mehdi AShCM.
Sejjil and K-4 are full IRBMs or probably borderline ICBM esp K-4.
IRI's utter failure of building narratives, lack of proper media compared to extreme level Israeli censorship, narrative building.
IRGC's narrative building and media posturing > Hegseth antics
8K hospitalized injuries, 15K buildings damaged, some to fair level civil, military, industrial infra structure damage inside Israel
First mass use of clustered warheads in war seen
Rule based order gone, many countries will seek strategic secret capabilities now.
PGCC oil now has a gun to its head and so does 30-40% of the world's economy.
Di to Tri Polar world in terms of strategic dominance, US dominating Americas or extreme western hemisphere, Israel Dominating EU+PGCC and with massive influence over US's posturing inside EU and MENA, Russo-Chinese-IRI (AoR)-DPRK block and then some other regional power being the new-NAM.
Winners: IRGC led IRI (and Axis of Resistance), China, Russia, Zio grip over west/PGCC .... Losers: US the global power, EU, PGCC, Iranian Clergy, Israeli Deterrence.
Sharra will do anything for money or he is a secret IRGC asset.
............. Preparing a war report. These were just random thoughts. It all may restart at any point so who gives shit.