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iran has good short medium range missiles but need to improve its long range capability to israelI think you know that during the 'negotiations' happening when this war was launched, Iran was willing to give up much more than what was given during the JCPOA. But the real goal was/is Iran's missiles capable of reaching Israel.
The rest is just smoke screen!
Why do you assume it has to be manufactured?
Aircrew will have a rest.
US amphibious ships will pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Their troops will be prepared for a ground invasion of Iran.
Their CSGs will get closer to the Arabian Sea. Markets are recovering already. An oil/energy crisis has been avoided.
There is not. Iran has no cards to use in these negotiations except for our uranium stockpile, which they want to remove from our territory. Iran can go to Islamabad, sign its surrender and return home and frame it as a victory.
They had 20 years to do that, if not more. They had 9 months to do that after the June war. 2 more weeks will change nothing.
I see none honestly.
Russia is the most sanctioned country in this world. USA wont sanction China.US is going to put sanctions on china or Russia? You think so?
Israel remains a curse in the region. But eventually, they will pay the priceIsrael is hitting Lebanon in the most violent way, Gaza-style.
Over a hundred people have been injured in the last hours, tens of deaths confirmed already.
We abandoned the Lebanese after they got into this mess because of us. Shame on us.
Sensible analysis amidst all the bluster.Iran has all its leverage intact:
-Hormuz
-Bab al Mandeb
-Destruction of regional energy facilities
They are already saying that the damage to the regional energy infrastructure will take years to be repaired and fully functional like in the past.
And indeed 2 weeks is not enough to change the situation, actually it benefits Iran more in logistical sense if the war restarts in 2 weeks.
Invasion of Iran will become more difficult because we're approaching summer heat.
Another thing is that many countries are angry at US and Israel, restarting the war AGAIN will make the world really curse USA and Israel.
Meanwhile investment climate in Persian Gulf is not secure as long as there is no final agreement between Iran and USA.
That's why my conclusion is that the ceasefire itself increases the leverage for Iran.
trump needs offramp and will agree to most points like he said now the next point of hot war will be Cuba and then CanadaIf this holds then Iran in essence has forced Zio-US to capitulate.
It remains to be seen whether this holds up.