Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Immortals]

 

[Meengla]

It’s possible, but would strain relations with Turkey.
My point being that during COVID + Maximum pressure campaign of Trump 1st term Iranian oil exports fell to less than 350,000 barrels a day! So iran can go a few months without exporting 2MBPD, where as can the global economy go a few months without the Strait of Hormuz open?
I think you know the answer to that my friend.

Good post.
Iran holds the same cards--perhaps even more now--that it did before the ceasefire was effected! Iranians seem too determined, too resilient, and too united to be deterred by economic pain but the larger world cannot. For the Iranian 'food security', Pakistan is allowing duty free shipment of the essentials via the land crossings into Iran. And I don't think those trucks would be bombed by anyone lest they bring Pakistan openly to the conflict. Pakistan is keeping a low profile in helping Iran.

 

[Immortals]

Subtle reminder that Pakistan has a significant Shiite population. Pakistan is forced to walk a tight diplomatic tightrope between the PGCC and Iran given these dynamics.

 

[Ali_Baba]

uss ford is is likely only staying in the area until relieved by bush and boxer isnt a carrier but an LHD\LHA like uss tripoli which is also in the area, they have much more limited aviation facilities but are primary amphibious assault ships

There was a statement released that the Ford had done enough repairs, to "stay in theatre". ie they are not going back, and their on station time has been extended again to near end of may 2026.

 

[Ibbi32]

But that works only temporarily. After a few shipments by Iran is seized, Iran will stop sending them because it knows it will end up in the hands of the US.

Also, the question is, if we assume that Iran sold its oil on FOB basis to China, would the US stop Chinese oil tankers too? If yes, what would be the reaction of China in that scenario?

The Chinese will be forced to stop oil imports from Iran, and because oil prices are high at the moment and the Strait of Hormuz is closed to Arab states, and Iran accounts for 9% of Chinese oil imports, it will hurt China for sure. What would China do then?

I suppose Trump thinks that China will eventually be forced to pressure Iran into a better deal, instead of confronting the USN.

i wouldnt take trumps statement too seriously. first of all hes threatening not iran but the strait of hormuz. this makes no sense hes effectively countering irans blockade by putting in an even more effective US blockade that not only blockades his own allies but also the few ships iran allows that brings stablity to market.

As far as china is concerned they have no problem picking petty battles when they feel like it but they are for some reason expresssly not challeging us in the slightest. if it really came down to it they might challenge the blockade by providing escorts to their ships and seeing us reaction but i doubt it

 

[Kyussis]

Why is US hell bent on preventing Irani nukes though? Even N.korea has nukes. Its for deterrence not to blow up other countries.

I S R A E L
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[Persian Gulf]

 

[Aziqbal]

There was a statement released that the Ford had done enough repairs, to "stay in theatre". ie they are not going back, and their on station time has been extended again to near end of may 2026.

no there is a lot of build up in the Eastern Mediterranean

France is also there and Americans are moving back East

 

[Meengla]

The man will never abandon Israel. Because Powerful Israeli Jews are the only thing that can shield his family from criminal prosecution once he leaves office.

Forget the Epstein Files theories which may or may not be valid about Trump's Israel love. Before the Epstein Files saga, Trump had plenty of times betrayed his extraordinary love for Israel even during the relatively peaceful time in the Middle East in his first term. He broke 5 decades old American policies to favor Israel in his first term.
I don't know the real reasons for his love for Israel but I think it is a combination of racism toward nonwhites, Israel Lobby, family Jewish relations, Evangelical Christians, and some kind of attachment to the Zionism itself.

 

[Ali_Baba]

"but" if they give weapons for free, then they are not selling them and the threat won't apply" ???

( yes - I am engaging with wordplay ..)

 

[Flotilla]

What if they stay in the Indian Ocean out of our firing range?
They will have 4 CSGs in the area soon:
USS Lincoln, USS Gerald Ford, USS Bush, USS Boxer.

Good. But you cannot stop shore trade. There are hundreds of small ships sailing daily vía Chabahar and Bandar E Jask.

They didn't stop flowing armament to Houthies... How the hell can they stop shore trading with Lenj and other light boats?.
The only way is to bomb they all.

Instead of 20.000 tons container ship, just use 100 200 tons trawlers, roro and bulk carriers.

For sure some Will be caught but 75% will reach inside Persian Gulf.

Irán controls all shore between Gwadar to Iraq. So good luck US Navy.

 

[Ibbi32]

There was a statement released that the Ford had done enough repairs, to "stay in theatre". ie they are not going back, and their on station time has been extended again to near end of may 2026.

idk wtf theyre doing obviously the us needs atleast two carriers in med/wior. the fire damaged ford very badly and i think theyve had to send a lot of the crew back home because they litteraly had lost 600 beds. like i said ford is only in theatre until bush is ready to relieve it and so far bush is still at home and more than a week away.

 

[Persian Gulf]

 

[Meengla]

i wouldnt take trumps statement too seriously. first of all hes threatening not iran but the strait of hormuz. this makes no sense hes effectively countering irans blockade by putting in an even more effective US blockade that not only blockades his own allies but also the few ships iran allows that brings stablity to market.

Ain't that something?! Open the Strait or I will close it! Hahahah!

 

[Ibbi32]

Good. But you cannot stop shore trade. There are hundreds of small ships sailing daily vía Chabahar and Bandar E Jask.

They didn't stop flowing armament to Houthies... How the hell can they stop shore trading with Lenj and other light boats?.
The only way is to bomb they all.

Instead of 20.000 tons container ship, just use 100 200 tons trawlers, roro and bulk carriers.

For sure some Will be caught but 75% will reach inside Persian Gulf.

Irán controls all shore between Gwadar to Iraq. So good luck US Navy.

it is not a matter of completely stopping the flow but starving iran out and destroying its economy