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That ship likely left China before the war even started assuming a 45-60 day transit.
Precursor fuels for liquid fuel missiles still requires the infrastructure to process the fuels and the ability to produce the rocket motor engines and gyroscopes and other component assembly. It’s possible Iran has some underground workshops, but large scale missile production is likely severely hampered. Unless this fuel is merely to be used on existing liquid fuel missiles hulls that have been produced pre-war.
Then there is the solid fuel side of things. Without the solid fuel mixers and casting pits, it seems unlikely iran will be able to build solid fuel or quasi solid fuel missiles in the short term, solid fuel which makes up its entire SRBM arsenal and a few of their MRBM arsenal (Haj Qassem missile, Sejil 2, and Keyibar Shekan, Fattah 1).
In short, iran will not be able replenish any significant missiles in next 2-4 weeks or even 2 months. It will likely take months for Iran to rebuild the infrastructure and important the industrial equipment (from China) to restart large scale missile production. In the meantime, some small quantities could be produced by workshops located in underground missiles bases using equipment and fuel reserves specially prepared for war time.
Indonesia has the mighty Komodo dragonIndonesia a spineless country
China faces a difficult choice between potentially escalating the conflict through military action to protect its energy imports, provide Iran with anti ship missiles or accepting the disruption of its trade routes, which could weaken its influence and security. The most likely scenario is china retaliates against US blockade through economic means.
China faces a difficult choice between potentially escalating the conflict through military action to protect its energy imports, provide Iran with anti ship missiles or accepting the disruption of its trade routes, which could weaken its influence and security. The most likely scenario is china retaliates against US blockade through economic means.
Usa will somehow turn the world against China or blackmail them in to it, at the moment Usa led world order is Usa South America, Canada EU Nato GCC Quad, India, Israel, these are the most powerful nations in the world. Usa is also making sure South America is rid of anti Usa forces, same with the middleeast. Militarily they cannot fight China but they control the world so can choke China economy, impose trade sanctions, at the moment it will be difficult but they can in the future once the Usa led order moves away from middleeast/South America in to Asia.They are coming after China, so it is not a difficult decision about what China should do.
It is strange that the US has imposed a total naval blockade on Iran during a ceasefire and IRI has not responded at all, preferring to continue negotiations and pretend the blockade does not exist.
But it does. And Israel has not accepted a ceasefire in Lebanon (though it has stopped bombing Beirut).
When the first reports of negotiations came out, Iranian officials denied it strongly. But now we see that Trump was telling the truth, and our Iranian officials were openly lying to us, and many messages were being exchanged with the enemy through intermediaries behind the scenes.
Its a war
The blockade of the Hormuz hurts the world economy, as long as Iran can send oil it gets both revenue and the ability to sustain the blockade for many many months, badly hurting the world economy
So this current U.S plan is trying to force the Hormuz to open by blocking Iranian oil, so Iran is forced to open the Hormuz and agree to terms
Its a siege
Currently Iran is ok, it has hundreds of millions of barrels of oil in tankers in the open sea heading to destinations
Iran will also have a limited capacity to store oil before it has to stop
So their is I reckon a two week window where Iran will wait it out
Everyday the Hormuz is blocked the GCC suffer and the world economy suffers and of you remove Iranian and GCC oil then the world has a problem
Economic sabotage is the real weapon for Iran, not missiles
Iran needs to keep holding out
It needs to demand payment from tankers to fix its economy and damaged infrastructure
And it needs to prepare it's missiles and drones for round two if needs be