Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

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Very very interesting timing with Trump in Beijing, but also look at the wording of the below statement by Yi to FM Dar

"China’s top diplomat urged Pakistan to step up mediation efforts between Iran and the United States, and to help “properly” address the reopening of the Hormuz strait, Chinese state media said on Wednesday"


Chinese were annoyed that maybe we did a side deal with Iran to allow Pak bound ships through and China was not included, and suddenly many Chinese ships are sailing through. Funny huh!?
 
So you want to tie in scheduling a test with a prediction of when the next earthquake will occur, given their inherent unpredictability, just keep the detection by seismic waves to a minimum?

Okay, then, problem solved, I guess.



(The physics of the energy expansion and propagation are totally different and detectable.)

ChatGPT says this

Timing overlap would complicate analysis — but not necessarily defeat it
If an underground test occurred seconds or minutes after a natural quake:
Waveforms could overlap
Initial automatic detection might be confused
Attribution could take longer
However, analysts can often separate overlapping events using:
Array processing
Back-projection methods
Different arrival times at distributed stations
Spectral decomposition. A second source in a different location is usually detectable unless extremely close in both space and time.

There are always rumors and suspicious everytime a natural earthquake happens in Iran.
It must be a reason, because just a nuclear triggered earthquake is very different than a natural earthquake.
 
Also, Russia and China will never standby while US finishes off Iran.

All eyes on China... see what China is willing or unwilling to do on trade, deficit, rare earths, investment in US, bonds and treasuries...
In return US will hold the reigns of Chinese economy. On the face of it ... China doesn't have to play ball on any of these... as it is negotiating on it's own turf and compromises they have to make to appease US... China's plaza accords so to speak. Because Japanese simply cannot continue buying US bonds when they're collapsing economically and demographically.
Which means US will be gearing for a ground invasion and whatever costs that come with it... as orange cannot take a strategic defeat for US fighting for a zionist cause while losing American blood and treasure till it runs dry. A direct consequence of a hubris ridden NY shyster, reality TV host and pdfile... perched as president.
It means ground invasion under both scenarios... not only that zion remains unconcerned with larger US balancing but the dynamics offered by China. Where China has given mixed signals... if however China does drop any support for Iran and signs a deal with US ... it will be grand capitulation of BRICS based parallel order. Means Iran will be weaker but unbending... facing zion and its proxies for a war to the end. On the flipside should China stand tall and doesn't budge... with no relief provided or projected for US... the US will still aim to attack Iran but this time to weaken it, instead of going all in to defeat Iran... something it would seek to put on a low burner... to come back and fight another day. This though will mean Iran can emerge as the preeminent power in the region eclipsing zion... and more than a match regionally.
 
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ChatGPT says this



There are always rumors and suspicious everytime a natural earthquake happens in Iran.
It must be a reason, because just a nuclear triggered earthquake is very different than a natural earthquake.

You do realize that there are other ways to help seismic wave analyses for the detection of underground nuclear explosions, right? The bottom line is that is is almost impossible to hide such tests.

That is why much of the testing has moved into the virtual domain with cold component testing for the subassemblies, to keep the capability hidden from the world - until it is time to reveal them, for geopolitical purposes.
 
Double or not, the $29 billion as quoted during the Senate hearing where Lindsay Graham was grilling Hegseth and Gen. Caine yesterday also mentioned the cost to repair the damaged/destroyed American bases in the Middle East is not factored in yet and it was uncertain if the local countries would share the cost in rebuilding them.

Logically, the local countries should not pay at a minimum, but ideally ask the Americans to reduce their presence and uptick their own defensive capabilities. But, "logic" does not really seem to work as a concept in the PGCC it seems.
 
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The smartest investment Irans military ever did!



Very good post you did there, I have translated for all here via google :

"
Are Iran's missile cities destructible?

I have previously written that Iran's missile cities are essentially designed to withstand very intense bombing and are practically impossible to destroy. To analyze Iran's missile capabilities, one must first understand the complex structure of missile cities. These cities are designed to absorb billions of dollars of enemy missiles and to keep people alive and the missiles intact, and I can confidently say that in 2026 there is no missile in the world that can destroy these cities.

Iran's "missile cities" are not simple concrete shelters, but underground operational networks buried deep in the mountains. The protective capability of these complexes is based on three main pillars: a natural shield resulting from geological engineering, a distributed and multilayered network structure, and resilience based on the ability to quickly repair.

Geological engineering is the most fundamental layer of protection. For example, the Yazd missile base in the mountainous central region of Iran, which was heavily bombed at least 500 times during the 40-day war, is dug to a depth of approximately 500 meters into the solid granite of Shirkuh. The compact granite effectively absorbs and disperses the energy of the explosion. Even the most powerful American bunker-busting bomb, the GBU-57, is reportedly unable to penetrate the central core of the facility against a layer of dense bedrock 50 to 100 meters thick.

The base’s interior design is based on survival through “networking.” The complexes are equipped with automated rail systems throughout the tunnels that connect assembly areas, weapons depots, and several secret exits on different mountain slopes. During operations, mobile launchers travel through the tunnels to the exits and fire rapidly, then immediately return deep into the ground and close the heavily armored doors. This greatly reduces the likelihood of their being targeted and destroyed in a counterattack.

From a practical perspective, the resilience of these missile cities has been proven. Under the pressure of combined airstrikes, although the vents and ventilation ducts of these underground facilities throughout Iran have been damaged, repair work has usually been completed within a few days, and the nuclear systems buried deep in the mountains have maintained their continuous operational status.

Based on geological protection, network structure support, and rapid repair capability, Iran’s “missile cities” have formed a reliable strike system that is impossible to cripple and have become the mainstay of Iran’s asymmetric deterrence strategy.

The New York Times report is not new with this definition, but I mention it because of the importance of the issue. The daily wrote: “Iran still has access to 30 of its 33 missile platforms on the Persian Gulf coast.”

The American newspaper wrote: This indicates a greater military power of Iran than what the US military and the White House claimed to have destroyed during the joint war with Israel.

These few lines from the New York Times did not please Aramap either, and China tweeted against the report, calling it fake news. Trump has repeatedly said and written that he has destroyed Iran's missile, naval and air forces, but the Strait of Hormuz is still closed.
"
 
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All eyes on China... see what China is willing or unwilling to do on trade, deficit, rare earths, investment in US, bonds and treasuries...
In return US will hold the reigns of Chinese economy. On the face of it ... China doesn't have to play ball on any of these... as it is negotiating on it's own turf and compromises they have to make to appease US... China's plaza accords so to speak. Because Japanese simply cannot continue buying US bonds when they're collapsing economically and demographically.
China probably going to give US a finger if Trump thinks China is just another larger size Japan and US is all powerful. He has no good cards and Americans can keep dreaming that China will just give in to US demands. Its Trump that is dying to come to China.
 
You do realize that there are other ways to help seismic wave analyses for the detection of underground nuclear explosions, right? The bottom line is that is is almost impossible to hide such tests.

That is why much of the testing has moved into the virtual domain with cold component testing for the subassemblies, to keep the capability hidden from the world - until it is time to reveal them, for geopolitical purposes.

Yeah, but there are more concealing ways like decoupled underground tests (detonation inside underground big caves).




So it could explain the restlessness every time a natural earthquake happens in Iran, it's not so easy to know that a underground nuclear test didnt happen if Iran is twisted enough.
 
China probably going to give US a finger if Trump thinks China is just another larger size Japan and US is all powerful. He has no good cards and Americans can keep dreaming that China will just give in to US demands. Its Trump that is dying to come to China.

That would be the logical assumption... however, remember orange literally invited himself. He played the choking China card during his first administration and right of the bat in his second term. And this time he actually started choking Chinese access to energy... though China has largely been successful in electrifying it's economy by renewables, something that Pakistan did by happenstance and now both seem somewhat insulted by the shock... China of course did it deliberately while creating the largest reserves globally.

What we know are apparent public leverages... behind closed doors orange will present either his desperation or confidence in harming China as mere hyperbole or actuality. There is the TikTok example which China had publicly dug heels on and later relented and sold to a militant zionist to control its algorithm. He wants China to buy oil in dollars and directly from US... invest in US infrastructure and buy its treasuries. In return agree to make zionists its partners as an acceptable win win scenario... to undermine mideast and demand of Petro-Dollars by proxy.
As a consequence leave a softened mideast to its hyena, zion.
 
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Yeah, but there are more concealing ways like decoupled underground tests (detonation inside underground big caves).




So it could explain the restlessness every time a natural earthquake happens in Iran, it's not so easy to know that a underground nuclear test didnt happen if Iran is twisted enough.

Please go ahead and have Iran conduct a test. It will be found out. 100%.

Besides, what does Iran gain from conducting a hidden test?
 
According to the Government of Iran, both the US and Israel have caused 250billion of damage. Given that governments "never" list military losses and costs, all those loses are civilian and infrastructure. So clearly, both the USA and Israel are not holding back, so why should Iran ?

The damage that Iran has sustained is "not minor".

This flaw in Iran's approach is what invites more war to its shores.

Yes thats my point. The damage iran can inflict is minor compared to what isreali/american axis can inflict. If iran destroys one energy facility, the anglo-american zionist axis will destroy a hundred in return.

While the iranians are short on capital, the zionist axis has the american taxpayer to cover every cost.

Iran bet the house on the "proxy war" strategy, its been a near total failure.
 
I think this article belongs in this thread as its linked to the Iran war. I also see it as the one undisputed success for Israel and the West in this war.


NYT : Gulf Countries Arrest Shiite ‘Traitors’ Amid War With Iran​

Dozens of Gulf citizens have been accused of belonging to Iran-linked terrorism cells as the war accelerates a shift toward deeper authoritarianism in the region.

In Kuwait, officials arrested six people who they said were plotting to assassinate the country’s leaders. In the United Arab Emirates, the authorities accused 27 men of belonging to a secretive terrorist organization. And in Bahrain, the government has stripped dozens of their citizenship.
The allegations may be different, and in many cases vague, but all these men have one thing in common: They are Shiites, members of one of two major branches of Islam, according to their governments and human rights activists.
After the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began on Feb. 28, Iran retaliated by launching thousands of attacks at Gulf states that host U.S. military bases. Some of those countries have since arrested dozens of Shiite citizens, calling them traitors loyal to Shiite-led Iran.
Scholars and rights activists say there has been a surge in nationalist rhetoric in the region that has echoes of past eras when sectarianism was more widespread. It also underlines the ways that the war has accelerated a shift toward deeper authoritarianism in several of the Gulf monarchies.

“It is understandable that at times of war, nationalism increases, but this is a form of rabid nationalism that is exclusionary and subjugates a significant minority of citizens who have complained for years about discrimination,” said Ala’a Shehabi, a Bahraini academic and pro-democracy activist.
Gulf governments typically reveal little information about cases related to terrorism and national security. Such trials are rarely open to journalists, and counterterrorism laws are broad enough to encompass political dissent. That makes it difficult to determine the details of the accusations levied against the men who were arrested, or the veracity of the charges.

Sectarianism has often played a role in the political tensions between Iran and its Arab neighbors. Iran is majority Shiite, with Twelver Shiism as its state religion. Most of the royal families on the Arab side of the Gulf are Sunni, members of the other main branch of Islam, and rule over Sunni-majority populations, with Shiite minorities. Other countries in the Middle East, like Iraq and Lebanon, also have mixed Sunni and Shiite populations.
Since the 1979 Iranian revolution, the Iranian government has often portrayed the Gulf’s royal families as puppets of Western imperialism, and in some cases, has sought to stoke dissent among local Shiites.

While the status of Gulf Shiites differs from country to country, many have long complained of marginalization and discrimination. In Bahrain — where a Sunni royal family rules over a Shiite-majority population — the government violently crushed a pro-democracy uprising more than a decade ago.
Yet in recent years, rhetoric portraying Shiites as a “fifth column” seeking to undermine the state had largely faded away, and several Gulf governments had been working to repair their relationships with Iran, viewing it as a pragmatic way to foster regional stability.
The war has shattered that fledgling diplomacy. As Iran’s attacks struck energy installations, hotels and residential towers, killing at least 19 civilians, Gulf countries have accused some of their own citizens — largely Shiites — of undermining national security.

The authorities in Kuwait announced they had foiled at least three terrorism cells linked to Hezbollah, a Shiite militant group in Lebanon that is backed by Iran, including one that officials said included five Kuwaiti citizens plotting to assassinate the state’s leaders. The Kuwaiti Embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Announcements of arrests in the Emirates and Bahrain have been more opaque.
In Bahrain, the authorities announced on April 27 that they were withdrawing Bahraini citizenship from 69 individuals, including dependents, whom they accused of “glorifying or sympathizing with the hostile Iranian acts, or engaging in contacts with external parties.” All of them were Shiite Bahrainis of Persian descent, according to the Bahrain Institute for Rights and Democracy, a human rights group in London, which researched their backgrounds and interviewed some of them.
And on Saturday, Bahrain’s interior ministry announced the arrest of 41 people, saying that they had belonged to an organization linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps. The same human rights group said in a statement that the arrests had included 37 Shiite clerics, and called the accusations of links to Iran “a blatant pretext for launching an ugly campaign of persecution against the Shia faith in the country.”
Ms. Shehabi, the Bahraini academic and activist, said that “hate speech is becoming so acute that some Sunnis with Shia names have published statements declaring their sect and loyalty to the ruling families.”
“The harder that Iran hits a Gulf state, the harder it cracks down on its Shia citizens, treating them as a fifth column and accusing them of terrorism,” she said.

In a statement to The New York Times, the Bahraini government said that it “is rightly acting against those few individuals in Bahrain who pose a threat.”

“Under Bahraini law, all persons are subject to equal treatment, without regard to personal characteristics, gender, or religious background,” the government added.
It said that all of those arrested were “suspected of committing violence, inciting violence” or of “threatening national security, including by sharing sensitive information or intelligence to hostile actors.”
Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, Shiite militants were blamed for attacks in several Gulf countries — “real terrorism in a sense, real bomb attacks,” said Toby Matthiesen, a senior lecturer in global Islam at the University of Bristol.
Since the war with Iran began, none of the Gulf countries have reported any domestic terror attacks, Mr. Matthiesen said, although such attacks could not be ruled out. Without more clarity on the substance of the charges, he added, the discourse around the arrests suggested a return to state-sanctioned sectarianism, combined with a hyper-nationalistic message to “rally around the flag.”

That trend has been most visible in the Emirates. In April, the authorities announced that they had arrested 27 men who belonged to a “secret Shiite terrorist organization” affiliated with Iran. A statement published by the official Emirati news agency accused them of engaging in “activities to harm national unity and destabilize the country,” saying that they had tried to recruit Emirati youth, “incite against the U.A.E.’s foreign policy” and “portray the country negatively.”
An official video accompanying the announcement purported to show materials confiscated from the men, including a small drone and wads of cash. The display also included everyday symbols of Shiism, including turbans worn by Shiite clerics, academic books and decorative banners commemorating the martyrdom of the prophet Mohammed’s grandson, Hussein, whom Shiites revere.
The government published the detained men’s photographs alongside their first and middle names — unusual in a country that typically only releases the initials of defendants to protect their privacy. On social media, pro-government commentators swiftly began to name and shame the men, in some cases calling them traitors who deserved to be executed.
“The fact that the state decided to release images of arrested individuals before they have undergone a fair trial suggests a verdict has already been reached to villainize them and their communities,” said Mira Al Hussein, an Emirati sociologist based in Britain.

Ms. Al Hussein lamented “the state of paranoia” that the Emirates has descended into as it has become more politically repressive in recent years.
She said that a Shiite friend back home had told her that the community was “on a knife’s edge” and that “if society rejects us, we don’t know what to do.”
Shiite religious leaders in Pakistan also estimate that as many as thousands of Shiite Pakistanis have been deported from the Emirates since mid-April, as Pakistan’s ties to the Emirates have deteriorated.

The Emirati foreign ministry did not respond to a request for comment.
On April 24, a religious sermon televised across the Emirates warned listeners against people who betray their nation.

“Have they not realized that wise leadership has cared for them, and encompassed them with goodness,” said the preacher, Abdullah Ibrahim Abdul-Jabbar.
He urged worshipers to report anyone they suspect of betrayal — “even if that person is among those closest to him.”
“The homeland is more precious than everything, and love for it does not admit division between two loyalties,” he said.
 
This explains why the Israelis were attacking Iran's Caspian ports.


Long Overlooked, Caspian Sea Provides Strategic Trade Route for Iran​

The landlocked body of water has taken on new significance, with Russia shipping military and commercial goods to bolster Tehran’s ability to withstand the U.S. assault.
 
remember orange literally invited himself. He played the choking China card during his first administration and right of the bat in his second term. And this time he actually started choking Chinese access to energy... though China has largely been successful in electrifying it's economy by renewables,

Even NY Times has been saying that China has largely shielded its economy from the Tariffs and what pain could be inflicted on China would be paid back in kind. So kind of 'M.A.D' in terms of the economies.
But if would see Lindsay Graham's interrogation of Pete Hegseth video (posted yesterday), Lindsay is suggesting that just like India capitulated on buying the Iranian oil in past due to sanctions/Tariffs, China could be treated the same away. Of course Lindsay also targeted Pakistan. Pretty interesting video and just first 10-12 minutes enough to watch.
 

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