Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds



long night ahead. Trump won't like this start to the week

the least escalatory step would be a small salvo of 1-3 missiles aimed at an air base in north Israel, sparing Haifa and major cities.

but virtually any attack will lead to an Israeli response, and air defence sabotage operations can be set up
 
Iran was firing approx 20 missiles at Israel per day consistently during the final weeks of the war in April

it has been 2 months since then. we can infer that Iran would have fired > 1000 missiles more missiles at Israel by now if the war had continued (assuming the same rate of fire, which may be optimistic)
 
Iran was firing approx 20 missiles at Israel per day consistently during the final weeks of the war in April

it has been 2 months since then. we can infer that Iran would have fired > 1000 missiles more missiles at Israel by now if the war had continued (assuming the same rate of fire, which may be optimistic)

The main reason for low fire rate was to avoid getting caught in the open by ISR as well as the delay in reopening tunnels.

It’s obvious now Iran should have built more missile bases in the East and focused on building a longer range (yet economical) missile that could strike targets in Israel and western Saudi Arabia and force the enemy to travel long distances to attack the missile nodes. In fact Northeastern Iran should def become a major missile zone in the future.
 
- The United States is seizing Iranian Bitcoin valued at 1 billion USD

- Ships are being escorted out of the Strait of Hormuz

- The blockade of Iranian ports continues unabated

- The US is persistently launching random attacks on Iran

- In retaliation, Iran is targeting Gulf nations, which the US and Israel seem indifferent to

- While the current scenario is sustainable for the US in the long run, this is only partially true for Iran

- Iran admits that the US is not negotiating in good faith

- Israel is attacking and occupying Southern Lebanon


So, what is the Iranian end game here? They don't want to fight, they don't want to give up, they don't want to go nuclear, they don't want to escalate...

What strategy is this?
You missed the most important point, Iran effectively unleashing economic doom on world economy by blocking the Strait, only this card is more than enough for Iran.
 
early IDF estimates: Iran fired 4 missiles at north Israel

a small salvo as expected to contain escalation
 


early reports of impact in Haifa. not confirmed

Israel claims all 4 missiles were intercepted

if Israel's response is management, Iran might tolerate it and move on, but Israel's response could resume the war

the small salvo suggests Iran does not want to enter war, a mistake and lost opportunity for a much bigger strike, in my opinion
 

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