I disagree about Hezbollah, I think we learned that these groups are extremely resilient. Look at what Hezbollah suffered already in 2024. 500 airstrikes in 30 minutes, total carpet bombing of every village in the south, loss of their leader and entire leadership, humiliation of pagers explosion, active collaboration between Lebanon, Israel, and USA to destroy Hezbollah, and somehow (thanks in part to IRGC) they emerged somewhat stronger in 2025, and surprised Israel again.
Some of my current thoughts:
- Netanyahu will not agree to a full ceasefire in Lebanon, and will continue to push his luck. It is close to the elections, and he cannot be seen as weak, even if it means pissing off Trump. It will be difficult for Iran to navigate this scenario, and it will remain volatile.
- the 60 days will not lead to a final agreement, since the redlines remain too far apart. this MOU sidesteps the most difficult issues (status of enrichment, etc).
- Iran will not see real sanctions relief. but will have some access to frozen reserves, and de facto relief on oil exports to China.