Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[BHAN85]

I think you are wrong to assume that the Iran war is over. It is not over in my opinion. It is far from over. If anything, it has just started in my opinion.

Remember that it took the US, Europe, Turkey and Arab countries 13 years and 8 months to finally defeat Syria. The fall of Syria didn't happen overnight. Assad initially won the war, didn't he? The same goes for Saddam's Iraq. The First Persian Gulf War happened in 1991, Saddam was overthrown in 2003.

Anyway, it's too early to judge what will happen. We need to wait for at least another 60 days before we call it a victory for Iran.

As of now, none of the sides have lost or gained anything of significance yet. This is merely an extension of the ceasefire for 60 days in my opinion. If anything, both sides are getting ready for longer war in my opinion:

1. This ceasefire enables the US and other countries to refill their strategic reserves for the next round of war.
2. This ceasefire allows Iran to empty its oil storage tankers for the next round of war and get some temporary relief for the second round.

I agree

To say now Iran war is over is like say Ukraine war was over when Putin met Trump in Alaska months ago.

Yeah, USA is pacting with Iran, like they did with Russia, but war is not over.

USA will remove 20% refuelers airplanes from Israeli Ben Gurion airport, it means they keep 80%, for what?

And USA pressured G7 days ago to send warships to Hormuz.

So basically USA is creating a scenario where Israel will have the opportunity of drag Europe towards Iran war, through false flags attacks in Hormuz strait.

USA is happy bringing chaos to allies, they instigate war, and then leave the problems to others, they did in Ukraine/Russia/Europe and they repeated the treason scheme in Israel/Iran/GCC.

 

[VCheng]

What framework?

The MoU.

No sanctions will be lifted before the final deal.

Incorrect. Point 10 makes waivers available immediately.

Iran is still not connected to the SWIFT banking system.

That can happen much later in this process if it gets to that point. It is still too early to ask for it.

 

[TAC]

Sir, what we have thus far is a transcript of what officials of both Iran and USA read to media reporters. For example, just look at the order of the two countries at the very beginning: they are different depending on who transcribed them.

I agree that there is no doubt as to the framework described in the MoU has been agreed upon by both countries, and that it is great step in stopping the war. But all the key details and issues regarding the stepwise implementation of every agreed upon will be negotiated in the next 60 days.

Without going into details at this point, as a preview, please note that in the reported document, many significant terms are only implied. Who are the "allies"? Yes, Israel is easy to guess, but what about the Iranian allies? If any of these allies stage an attack, what will happen to the agreement? Who will be "regional partners" putting up the $300 billion investments and under what terms and conditions? What will be mechanism of enforcement of the "applicable international law" after "discussion with Oman and other littoral States" after the initial 60 period for transit of the SoH? How is the "proximity of Iran" defined as, beyond which US forces will withdraw after 30 days?

Obviously, there is still much to be clarified over the next 60 days that will greatly affect the outcome of what has been described.

The best thing that has been made clear thus far is that both sides have agreed to change the adversarial nature of their relationship resulting in direct conflict into a defined transactional relationship where mutually agreed upon steps lead to stepwise improvements.

As I previously mentioned, both sides have to be able to sell this framework to their respective internal audiences. In the meantime, there is cessation of hostilities, opening of transit, and a commitment to finalize the real details.

That is all good, thus far, for both sides.

And at risk of yet more ire from @Musings , some things may still take some time to understand. I will patiently wait and see. Of course, anyone wishing to rush to judgement prematurely is most welcome to do so, freely.

Of course there is lots of detail to emerge / evolve as time goes by - but to say that the US did not achieve anything under this MOU that it didn’t already have in the Obama accord, to say that US was forced to back off from further military action, was forced to now ignore the wishes of the genocidal Israeli’s upon who’s wishes they started this war, to say that Iran made huge gains compared to what it had before the war - is not premature any way shape or form and not dependent on the details you are pinning your hopes on to salvage something for the US.
Even in the best case scenario from a US perspective, assuming all the details go in the US’s favour what will the US gain that it didn’t have under the Obama Accord??
Sorry but you are now avoiding that important and fundamental question by muddying the waters via ‘details’ yet to emerge. I’ve made it simple by assuming all those details you mention go in US’s favour, now please answer the question.

 

[VCheng]

It would be interesting to see if a pipeline for oil and gas can go via Pakistan to China ?

The engineering and cost-benefit analysis for such a project across earthquake-prone mountains and the potential for an ecologic disaster into the main water supply of Pakistan is what will be more interesting.

 

[ghazi52]

Trump’s Iran agreement may be a dud, but he’s getting what he wants​

Analysis by Stephen Collinson
CNN

President Donald Trump arrives at Paris Orly airport in Orly, France, on June 17.
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters

Donald Trump insisted last month that he didn’t think about Americans’ finances when negotiating with Iran.

He’s clearly changed his mind.

“I didn’t want to see economic catastrophe. If you kept this going, that could have happened,” Trump said Wednesday, in seeking to explain what critics see as a deeply flawed agreement to end the war.

Trump’s comment, in France, was a revealing moment. It shows how, under political pressure, he often grasps for short-term advantage over the long-term strategic grind. And it underscores his reverence for the wisdom of the markets, which he said were “more brilliant” than any of his advisers “other than me, of course.”

But Trump’s embrace of a peace plan that one Republican senator warned had Ronald Reagan “rolling over in his grave” risks weakening the US position going into critical 60-day talks that could define Iran’s nuclear destiny.

The agreement, designed to pave the way to those meetings, seems to cede almost all US leverage and hands Iran billions of dollars in revenues up front by waiving sanctions. It may therefore dent Trump’s self-conjured mystique as the world’s great dealmaker — which lifted him from reality TV to the White House.

 

[Ali_Baba]

Those who said words about Pakistan led mediation process and said that Qatar has taken over the process should see this picture.

This Picture of Pak PM holding the signed Islamabad MoU has just ONE other signatory besides the two parties, and that is Pakistan and not any other country.

View attachment 202143

It was a team effort, and Qatar helped a lot given how much more "experience" they have in these types of negotiations than Pakistan. This would have been a very good learning experience for the diplomatic services of Pakistan for sure( they do need to clamp down on the leaks of the talks though). Pakistan had all the connections, esp China and the USA and Iran to make this happen and it is not involved in any of the "tribal politics and egos and historical baggage" of the middle east.

There was literally no other country that is positioned as well to do this.,

 

[VCheng]

Even in the best case scenario from a US perspective, assuming all the details go in the US’s favour what will the US gain that it didn’t have under the Obama Accord?

What is new now is the stepwise enforcement and verification mechanisms that Iran must follow to avoid an economic meltdown and the resultant social upheaval.

 

[ShapurII]

I agree

To say now Iran war is over is like say Ukraine war was over when Putin met Trump in Alaska months ago.

Yeah, USA is pacting with Iran, like they did with Russia, but war is not over.

USA will remove 20% refuelers airplanes from Israeli Ben Gurion airport, it means they keep 80%, for what?

And USA pressured G7 days ago to send warships to Hormuz.

So basically USA is creating a scenario where Israel will have the opportunity of drag Europe towards Iran war, through false flags attacks in Hormuz strait.

USA is happy bringing chaos to allies, they instigate war, and then leave the problems to others, they did in Ukraine/Russia/Europe and they repeated the treason scheme in Israel/Iran/GCC.

I agree. This "memorandum of understanding" is just an extended ceasefire for countries to refill their strategic oil reserves to prevent an economic crash when the next round of war happens.

The MoU.

The MoU is not a framework. Nothing is final there. Everything has been left open to interpretation so far. Even the $300 billion that is cited very often has been left wide open to interpretation. Nothing of significance has been agreed upon, except for meeting again to finalize a deal in 60 days. Even that is not certain because the parties of this MoU can extend this 60 day period mutually.

Per Trump's own words: "No, it's not final. It's a memorandum of understanding. And if I don't like it, we will go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs on their head".

Incorrect. Point 10 makes waivers available immediately.

Nope, not incorrect. The waiver allows other countries to buy our oil, but the money will not be transferred to Iran, or be sent to Iran as cash. It will be used as credit lines to import goods. So, nope. Nothing has changed. We already had such an arrangement with the Chinese.

That can happen much later in this process if it gets to that point. It is still too early to ask for it.

And this proves my point.

 

[Ali_Baba]

Hopefully Iranians will remember this backstabbing.

I wouldn't bet on that, the Iranians have a real "soft" spot for India and I don't see that changing. Hopefully things get better between Pakistan and Iran, that itself is worth it esp given how removal of Iranian sanctions will lead to the economic growth of Iran and being a neighbor, Pakistan can pick up more 2-way bilateral trade.

 

[FuturePAF]

NY Times main page. Tells you who has gained more. And Israelis are already spinning this as 'Treaty of Versailles'. Haha!

View attachment 202146

France 24 also comparing it to the Treaty of Versailles. I’m not sure they want to say the French got Heir Drumpf to sign famous for start the villain arch that will cause blowback in 2 decades.

 

[FuturePAF]

I agree. This "memorandum of understanding" is just an extended ceasefire for countries to refill their strategic oil reserves to prevent an economic crash when the next round of war happens.


The MoU is not a framework. Nothing is final there. Everything has been left open to interpretation so far. Even the $300 billion that is cited very often has been left wide open to interpretation. Nothing of significance has been agreed upon, except for meeting again to finalize a deal in 60 days. Even that is not certain because the parties of this MoU can extend this 60 day period mutually.

Per Trump's own words: "No, it's not final. It's a memorandum of understanding. And if I don't like it, we will go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs on their head".


Nope, not incorrect. The waiver allows other countries to buy our oil, but the money will not be transferred to Iran, or be sent to Iran as cash. It will be used as credit lines to import goods. So, nope. Nothing has changed. We already had such an arrangement with the Chinese.


And this proves my point.

Does Iran have a published list of major Items it wants to import from the world? For example, I’m sure they want to buy a ton of airbus airliners to replace their ancient 707s.

 

[RocketLaw]

 

[ShapurII]

Does Iran have a published list of major Items it wants to import from the world? For example, I’m sure they want to buy a ton of airbus airliners to replace their ancient 707s.

Not that I know of.

 

[Meengla]

I wouldn't bet on that, the Iranians have a real "soft" spot for India and I don't see that changing. Hopefully things get better between Pakistan and Iran, that itself is worth it esp given how removal of Iranian sanctions will lead to the economic growth of Iran and being a neighbor, Pakistan can pick up more 2-way bilateral trade.

If the Iranians really have a soft spot for a nation like India where a slight majority has positive opinion of Israel vs a nation like Pakistan where 95% of population has negative opinion of Israel then the Iranians would be either ignorant or apathetic. Had they not seen that just before this attack on Iran was launched by Israel, the Indian PM Modi went to Israel and literally hugged Netanyahu? What would the India-Israel combine to do the Iranian nation if Israel had prevailed in the war?
Iran surely needs trade and cash but limit to that when dealing with India.

 

[Ali_Baba]

And at risk of yet more ire from @Musings , some things may still take some time to understand. I will patiently wait and see. Of course, anyone wishing to rush to judgement prematurely is most welcome to do so, freely.

The purpose of this forum is open discussion, and that on strategic matters. It is not just a historical debating committee on what has happened and documented, but a mechanism for thought and discussion on how things may evolve and change from where we are currently, i.e. strategic thought based on game theory of all parties involved.

The act of strategic thought implies that theories are formulated on the basis of what is known and what is not being said of actual intentions behind those actions. Those theories and thoughts will stand the test of time as being correct, or fail as they are overtaken by new events. You may feel uncomfortable with such strategic thought, views, talks and opinions , but you really need to step away from telling others to not engage in thought, reasoning and projections if they provide the background to their views and why they formulate the views.

I have said this many times to you, and will do so again. This is a "discussion forum".