Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Immortals]

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Did Oman backstab Iran?

 

[Fatman17]

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[Yasser76]

Looks like UAE deeply unhappy, Rubio just left Abu Dhabi to try and placate them and straight afterwards....

 

[hussain0216]

Looks like UAE deeply unhappy, Rubio just left Abu Dhabi to try and placate them and straight afterwards....

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UAE has really really made a mess of it's foreign policy

For some reason they went full retard and now it's costing them and their reputation

Their only play was to become a degenerate whore hole and fully go into the Zionist side

And now they have ended up hated and despised in their own region

How stupid is that

 

[Yasser76]

UAE has really really made a mess of it's foreign policy

For some reason they went full retard and now it's costing them and their reputation

Their only play was to become a degenerate whore hole and fully go into the Zionist side

And now they have ended up hated and despised in their own region

How stupid is that

Honestly, feels like they were taking diplomacy lessons from Jaishanker.
They isolated themselves so were not at the table when the deals were being thrashed out. Turkiye, Qatar, Saudi and Pak were. UAE pissed all of them off so we all went ahead without them and took into account our own self interets. As this was happening the egos of the Al Nayans and Makhtoums were such that instead of reaching out to Pak, Qatar or Saudi they withdrew the $3 Billion thinking they could make Pak kneel. Saudis, Qataris and China quickly replaced the money knowing Pak helping make peace was far more important.

Sheer arrogance has got them here. Their only friends now are the other two losers of this deal. India and Israel

 

[maxpane]

Looks like UAE deeply unhappy, Rubio just left Abu Dhabi to try and placate them and straight afterwards....

View attachment 203065

Uae is alone now . all other five countries have accepted the reality. new security arrangement under Paksitan is the onlyw ay going . No other country can provide what Paksitan has. so UAE bet on wrong horse and just doing rebelious act go show its existence just like a small stibborn child to get some attention

 

[Yasser76]

Uae is alone now . all other five countries have accepted the reality. new security arrangement under Paksitan is the onlyw ay going . No other country can provide what Paksitan has. so UAE bet on wrong horse and just doing rebelious act go show its existence just like a small stibborn child to get some attention

My guess they may look for Nuclear umbrella with India, Indians will hopefully be dumb enough to agree

 

[maxpane]

My guess they may look for Nuclear umbrella with India, Indians will hopefully be dumb enough to agree

yes but india wnt fight a war for them they never did. israel will try to bring indoa in middle east but its not a good idea for them as uae is sorrounded by other five countries where Pakistan presence is must. so uae is just going stubborn after some general told them that they are the spartans which they are not

 

[RealNapster]

My guess they may look for Nuclear umbrella with India, Indians will hopefully be dumb enough to agree

India is an opponent to us, but still it isnt idiot to do something like that. They will sign all sort of deals with UAE but nuclear umbrella is out of the question.

 

[Mobius]

 

[maxpane]

where is iran

 

[Mobius]

where is iran

Threatening to block the Strait if Trump doesn't make a peace deal

 

[Master Chief]

Looks like UAE deeply unhappy, Rubio just left Abu Dhabi to try and placate them and straight afterwards....

View attachment 203065

Is he calling Iran a uterus?

That's a new one..

 

[ShapurII]

I think you’ve moved off your original position quite a bit here.

Your original argument was that if Hormuz is reopened, Iran has lost one of its hard-earned cards. But now you’re explicitly saying Iran can still close the Strait again whenever it wants. If Iran can still re-close Hormuz, then it has not lost that card. What you’re arguing now is not that the card is gone, but that it may not have the same effect next time. That is a much weaker argument than the one you started with.

I respectfully disagree. Closing the Strait of Hormuz in itself is a quite useless and stupid practice if it doesn't affect oil prices. In fact, if anything, it is a bad political move in itself, unless it achieves Iran's strategic goal of coercion and deterrence through the risk of economic collapse. If it has lost its potency to achieve that goal, Iran has lost it as a card. I think that's pretty obvious.

And even that is speculative. The US can prepare for a future closure all it wants, but that does not mean it has neutralized the leverage. The Strait of Hormuz still handles roughly 20% of global oil and energy flows. The US has not built some alternative route that can suddenly replace that. That would take years to implement, if not a decade or more. So yes, maybe the second closure causes slightly less shock than the first, but the strategic leverage is still there because the structural dependence is still there.

Even this time, oil prices didn't pass $120 per barrel. We had Iranian members who predicted $200 per barrel or even higher than that, but it never materialized.
Adjusted for inflation, this wasn't even comparable to the aftermath of the US invasion of Iraq, as oil prices hit $188 per barrel in 2003, again adjusted for inflation of course.

And I don't know what you mean there is no alternative route. There are at least two such routes in operation by the Saudis and the Emiratis and after this, more will be built and enter operation in the next 5 years. Saudi Arabia pumped 7 million barrels of oil through their own pipeline even during this war.

If Iran cannot keep oil prices above $100 per barrel next time, the potency of this tool has been lost, and Iran will have one fewer card to use in future negotiations.

Your own point about shared control of the Strait earning Iran and Oman billions actually proves my point more than yours. It shows this is not some symbolic card. It is a major economic and geopolitical lever, whether Iran uses it commercially or coercively.

No, it actually refutes your point that because Iran didn't control the Strait of Hormuz before the war, it is of no value in the negotiations. That was your argument, and it clearly refutes that.

On the Houthis, I still think you are drawing too much from non-use. The fact that they did not fully activate Bab al-Mandab in this phase does not prove they are useless, nor does it prove Iran had lost control of the situation. It just means Iran did not play every escalation card at once. A country can be under pressure and still hold back some options for a wider confrontation later. Those two things are not contradictory.

They didn't activate at all, not just "fully activate". They were bystanders in the war. Iran was being suffocated economically, which is why Iran is negotiating with the Americans for temporary relief as we speak.

Same with the missile point. You’re no longer really disputing that Israel and the US burned through a huge number of interceptors. You’re now saying they can ramp up production. Fine, maybe they can. But that still does not answer the key question, which is how long that takes, how much it costs, and whether they can replenish those systems faster and more cheaply than Iran can keep producing drones and ballistic missiles.

Wrong. I never disputed that Israel and the US had burned through a huge number of interceptors. You're hallucinating like an LLM now lol

How long it takes is actually my point: not much because the US has access to formidable industrial capacity on its own and through trade with its allies or even its adversaries like China. We heard similar arguments after the 12-day war, but the US and Israel attacked Iran again at will barely 9 months after that.

How much it costs is of little relevance because Iran is already on the verge of complete economic collapse. The US military budget alone is nearly 10x of Iran's GDP while Iran's damages in the last 2 wars has been 10x more than both Israel and the US. I don't think bringing economics into this really paints a picture of triumph for Iran.

That asymmetry is the whole point. It is not enough to just say “the Americans will ramp up production” and leave it there. These are expensive systems, they take time to replenish, and Iran does not need to match them interceptor for interceptor. It just needs to keep imposing costs faster than they can comfortably absorb them.

Iran didn't really fight a great asymmetric war and it proved it is incapable of doing so, contrary to what assumed for decades. If anything, Israel pulled asymmetric warfare tactics when it destroyed Iran's IADS in the early hours of the 12-day war by using cheap FPVs built inside Iran. That's real asymmetric warfare. Firing MRBMs by your armed forces from known locations is not asymmetric warfare.

And on the GCC, I think you’re using the wrong benchmark again. The point was never that the UAE had to be “blown up to pieces” for the missiles to matter. The point is that the war reminded the Gulf states that they are still exposed to Iranian retaliation and to the fallout of a US-Israel war with Iran. That by itself is enough to make them reassess how much they can rely on Washington and how much hedging they may need to do with Tehran. You do not need Dubai or Abu Dhabi to look like Gaza for that strategic effect to exist.

Dude, you are now writing irrelevant stuff just for the sake of having written something. First of all, if you write the Gulf states instead of the Persian Gulf states, you are no longer the person I want to talk to. Either respect Iran's history, or kindly stop replying to me.

Secondly, Iran has lost north of $350 billion due to extensive damage to its civilian infrastructure. How much has the UAE lost, comparing its GDP to Iran? Not much. Therefore, it is not enough to remind them of anything. They know that a situation like this will eventually be in their favor because Iran is losing a lot more with a much smaller economy. It is not sustainable for Iran, not them.

So I still come back to the same basic point: even if the US gets concessions on HEU, that alone does not turn the overall outcome into a US victory if Iran still keeps its missile force, still keeps the ability to threaten Hormuz, still retains regional escalation options, and comes out of this with sanctions relief and economic breathing room. In that scenario, the US may have won something important on the nuclear file, but it still has not resolved the broader Iranian challenge. That is why I still see the overall package as leaning more in Iran’s favour than America’s.

Iran does not retain regional escalation options. Absolutely wrong. Iran reacts to US provocations and stops when the US decides. Iran is not in a position of action, but it is reactionary. Iran has proved beyond reasonable doubt that it does not control anything in the war. The Americans start it at will, and the Americans end it at will.

America has solved broader Iranian challenges already, and not by Trump. It was achieved in 2015 through the JCPOA after years of international sanctions. And now the US wants to have it all. If anybody thinks the Americans are looking for some sort of normalization with Iran, I can say nothing but feel sorry for them. And our negotiators are still there, negotiating with the Americans even though he threatens them and humiliates them publicly every now and then. This is not the posture of the side that has won the war.

 

[Mobius]

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