Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[LeonBlack08]

 

[VCheng]

Unsure how much of this new wave of attacks is posturing and getting an upperhand in the negotiations, we are too far down the line and both sides have too much to lose for going back to full scale war.

As I said above, despite this recent outbreak of open hostilities, we all should give negotiations a chance to proceed to a final settlement.

Things may work out still.

 

[Flotilla]

Renewed fuel bridge now active in CENTCOM AOR:
View attachment 205195

Please note this comment by NATO:
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has already defended the new wave of US strikes as "absolutely necessary,". This is a clear indication for the first time of strong Western alliance alignment.

What we may expect going forward is a sustained US military footprint in the region as CENTCOM works to permanently degrade Iran’s coastal denial capabilities and secure the Strait of Hormuz.

Love looooong routes of countless hours of flights in 50 years old frames... what can be go bad???.

 

[VCheng]

Again, when national pride is at stake, who are we to pass judgement on Iran. They are a proud people with culture, history and tradition. This is not their first rodeo; there are other factors at play here that we yet don't fully understand. I understand the gist of your argument, and it has merit but remember that Iran is the aggrieved party here because the conflict was thrust upon them without any due cause or egregious action.

That said, this recent incident unless controlled could become a spark that leads to further conflagration.

Of course Iran has every right to fight the war as best as it can. But so will the other side, equally. That is just how it goes. War is war.

Just as I previously said to wait and see, it is wise to wait for the results of the negotiations, despite the recent hostilities.

 

[Flotilla]

Iran dictate sh*t and is a confused state. All your proxies one by one have been destroyed by Israel in the last 10 years or so. Israel kills your scientists, commanders at will and inside Iran while you can't do a jack about it. US and Israel now can slap you whenever they want. Pretty embarrassing for Iranians when US/Israel hits you in your own mainland. Brace yourself for a naval blockade again.

We see.
Hundreds of fighters entering and getting out of the country.
It is like Pearl Harbour film but without Kate Beckinsale.

 

[RescueRanger]

How does one diffrentiate between routine movements and ones related to an increase in activity?

Ideally the first thing you want to see if there are any EAMs: Emergency Action Messages that have been transmitted when you see large fleet movements. In this case we have one recorded today at 0500 hrs Zulu - click on link to play recording.

2026-07-08 04-58-42.mp3

Shared with Jumpshare

jumpshare.com

Secondly look for Callsigns, for instance:

We know that at least x3 refuelers are operating with the Callsign CLEAN.



By referencing the callsign we can ascertain if these are Coronets or movements. Corenets are basically tractor movements of refuelers such as the KC3R helping bombers and fighters fly long distances:

https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/115966/coronet-mission-helps-fighters-cross-atlantic-other-long-distances/

Now we can delve a little deeper we look at is the movement - is the movement preceding any major developments or public statements from officials. In this case they are.

Then we look at any available ACARS messages for the aircraft. For instance:

For instance the ACRAS for the KC135 Callsign Clean is currently showing it is operating on the 3400-3500 MHz frequency. This is standard SINCGARS frequency for US military and NATO militaries - unlike civil radio, this is a frequency hopping channel that hops 2,320 channels with 25 kHz spacing across the lower VHF band. This helps with COMSEC (communications security) and TRANSEC (transmission security) protocols.

And whilst you can tune into this frequency using SDR - due to its AES-256 encryption, all you will get is white noise.


I hope this helps explain things a little better.

 

[Flotilla]

Iran should know it didn't beat US technologically. Its just that US was unwilling to spend a massive bill on this war when it needs to focus on China. US can literally finish the job, if it brings it entire military might.

It can´t and you know it can´t.

They need hundreds of JSOW/TLAM/JASSM... and after burning them... they need to enter inside Irán, and the SAM systems are ready to engage.

The only real option is boots on the ground and everybody knows they won´t.

US will burn their last long range inventories and then... CHICKEN OUT.

Excuse me but many of you are a bit child to still believe that Trump will engage in a war that cannot win.

Trump will chicken out.
Mojtaba only needs to press longer time the gas pedal.
Don´t be fooled by X and zionists media.

 

[Starlord]

didn't want to go several pages to look up, why did Iran attacked the 3 tankers again?

 

[Meengla]

n my opinion latest mess is all Iran created one by attacking Qatari and Saudi vessel. There is something serious leadership issues at Iran's end.

Indeed, there are issues in Iranian decision making.

 

[lightning f57]

Brent: $78, WTI: $74. Long way to go to reach $110 bbl again.

Inflation has stayed for years. Iran's official inflation rate for the last 2 years has been over 50%. What a ridiculous comment.

I think there is misconception on the oil price so I will try to break this down.

The IEA coordinates strategic oil reserves for a group of countries including the US, Japan, South Korea and many European countries. Around March, between government reserves and oil industry stocks, they had around 1.8 billion barrels available.

When the Iran war issue kicked off, the IEA committed to releasing around 400 million barrels to calm the market. That 400 million wasn’t all gone by May, but by around late June / early July. So you can see why trumpy pumpy wanted a ceasefire quick.

Now someone might say, okay, but they still had around 1.4 billion barrels left. That is true. But at the height of the war, the market was losing something like 14 million barrels per day. If you do the simple maths:

1.4 billion ÷ 14 million per day = about 100 days

So even after the first 400 million barrels, if things carried on at the worst level, the remaining emergency reserves could theoretically be gone in just over three months.

In the real world countries would never wait until the reserves hit zero. Panic would start way before that. The market would start thinking hang on, if they need another emergency release already, then there really is not enough oil. That is when prices could have gone crazy likely above $125 per barrel, maybe over $150.

That is why the timing of the MOU / ceasefire around mid-to-late June is interesting. It happened just as the first big emergency release was getting close to the point where another release might have been needed.

The other big factor is China. Around 20 million barrels per day normally moves through the SOH. China gets a huge amount from that route over 5m b per day. So if China reduced imports and used some of its own reserves instead, that would take a lot of pressure off the market. I think some private deal between trump and China was made to keep prices low. If China had kept buying normally while Hormuz supply was disrupted, the oil price could have gone much higher much faster.

 

[ShapurII]

That is why the timing of the MOU / ceasefire around mid-to-late June is interesting. It happened just as the first big emergency release was getting close to the point where another release might have been needed.

That's exactly my point, proving that Iran isn't dictating shit, just playing along in a game that the US sets its rules.

 

[RocketLaw]

Back to War again? What happened?

To view this content we will need your consent to set third party cookies.
For more detailed information, see our cookies page.

Accept third party cookies

Sigh - let's crash economy again and oil price high (LINK)

 

[tsunset]

America is an early stage cancer that should be pre-emptively removed from the earth or rendered inoffensive

 

[ShapurII]

America is an early stage cancer that should be pre-emptively removed from the earth or rendered inoffensive

Early stage? It has already metastasized to the whole world.

 

[Watandar]

Iran dictates sh*t and is a confused state. All your proxies one by one have been destroyed by Israel in the last 10 years or so. Israel kills your scientists, commanders at will and inside Iran while you can't do a jack about it. US and Israel now can slap you whenever they want. Pretty embarrassing for Iranians when US/Israel hits you in your own mainland. Brace yourself for a naval blockade again.

I think the embarrassed ones are the US , israel and their proxies in the GCC who thought they could attack Iran and continue living in luxury , just like many other aggressions they have engaged in for the last 40 years. Now they feel the pain.

GCC can stop this war by refusing airspace and land bases to the US and Israel. But they are cowardly puppets.