So, what should Iran being doing now instead ?
Iran should be refusing to agree to any deal until AFTER the mid terms. Let oil truly rise. Right now the reserve still has about 8 weeks of buffer in it before US truly feels the heat and be forced to offer concession. By waiting to mid terms you make Trump VERY desperate for a deal and you ensure Republicans to get swept out and lose badly for backing Trump and this war.
Iran 45 years ago had this basic knowledge when it refused to negotiate with Carter and waited for Reagan and ended Carters political career.
Keep in mind Carter actually did a land operation attempt to get Iranian leverage (the hostages). Trump has yet to even pull a Carter and try to truly get the Iranian leverage (Kharg and Uranium inside Isfahan).
What do you think the strategy should be
Iran should draw a redline at the U.S. naval blockade. The biggest blunder was the de facto accepting of US naval blockade which is act of war in itself. Iran was too SCARED to challenge this blockade.
The strait is NOT closed and its LEAKY. If the naval blockade stays on Iran then Iran will target the UAE pipeline and the Saudi Arabian pipeline, because those countries are still selling oil to the world while Iran cannot.
And if the West doesn’t remove the blockade or at least turn a blind eye to some oil going thru then Iran will continue attacking US bases in the region.
What is U.S. going to do in this situation? Attack Iranian energy sites? That would be the end of Arab oil facilities as Yemen, Iraq, and Iran light fire to their entire infrastructure.
what outcomes can Iran achieve with what you think the strategy should be?
Iran can gain de facto control of the strait. And a TRUE removal of sanctions via a TREATY rather than some fake EOs that can be reversed on a dime. And by keeping FULL control of the strait, Iran will have a card it can wield to punish the U.S. if it backtracks.
This was an existential war for Iran and it’s treaty it as if it’s a Pakistan-India border skirmish.