Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[mangekyo]

It does. Let me remind you what happened.

In January, after a complete mishandling of the economy which caused the US dollar to double its price in one month, Bazaar of major cities in Tehran shut down their stores and people poured into the streets of Tehran and tried to topple the regime. Then Iranians abroad held rallies against the regime. Netanyahu presented that as proof to Trump that Iran would fall easily in a matter of days and convinced him to attack Iran as soon as possible.

That's how it all started on February 28th. Trump's original plan was to pull something like what happened in Venezuela in Iran. He waited for somebody inside the system to contact him and sign his terms of surrender. That didn't happen.

After that, he started to realize he had a new problem: the Strait of Hormuz. Ever since, he's been trying to resolve this problem while at the same time it is trying to weaken Iran and degrade our capabilities with minimal cost to the US. The US is killing Iran with minimal cost.

Does it explain what is happening now?

No it doesn’t. Because he didn’t need this war and the risk was way too high.

 

[ShapurII]

Right now, it is the traditional period of toward the green energy, since the Russia-Ukraine war didn't cause much impact on the global oil price and inflation as expected, and probably similar trend will have occurred in the middle east.

The current war on Iran if occurred in the 2000s, the oil price would have easily capped above $200 per barrel.

Ukraine wasn't a major producer of oil or natural gas, and Russia's energy infrastructure has hardly been affected by the war.

Sure, Ukraine had a few hits here and there, but nothing major because the Americans drew very clear red lines for the Ukrainians against targeting Russian oil and natural gas production.

This is very different from the situation in this war where Iran targeted 20% of Qatar's LNG production in just a single day.

 

[ShapurII]

No it doesn’t. Because he didn’t need this war and the risk was way too high.

It does actually. There's no risk for him. He has destroyed Iran, set us back for at least a decade, and lost only 18 soldiers. What risk? lol

For comparison, the US lost 139 men during the invasion of Iraq in 3 weeks. So, again, what risk?

You talk as if Iran had been able to do anything to make this a risky war for Trump.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Ukraine wasn't a major producer of oil or natural gas, and Russia's energy infrastructure has hardly been affected by the war.

Sure, Ukraine had a few hits here and there, but nothing major because the Americans drew very clear red lines for the Ukrainians against targeting Russian oil and natural gas production.

This is very different from the situation in this war where Iran targeted 20% of Qatar's LNG production in just a single day.

That's why the war on Iran has bigger impact that the Russia-Ukraine war, but still got limited impact compared to the initial expectation because it got mitigated by the transitional period toward the green energy.

If it wasn't the surge of the renewable energy, war on Iran would be much more devastating than the war on Iraq for many non-oil producer nations.

 

[mangekyo]

It does actually. There's no risk for him. He has destroyed Iran, set us back for at least a decade, and lost only 18 soldiers. What risk? lol

You talk as if Iran had been able to do anything to make this a risky war for Trump.

So you’re telling me Trump will get re elected if the war continues like this until the elections?

(Not reelected literally, win the midterm)

 

[Immortals]

Exactly. There used to be people here who before the war predicted oil prices would exceed $200 per barrel. It never materialized.

It didn’t materialize because the energy war never happened.

Iran didn’t truly close SoH, about 4-7MBPD leaked thru. Add in the 2MBPD from UAE pipeline + 4MBPD from Saudi east-west pipeline = 10-13MBpd of the 20MBPD pre war was still flowing to global markets.

Iran didn’t have the guts to attack UAE or Saudi pipelines. In fact the worst attack on energy was actually carried out by Houthi’s 4 months into the conflict.

So 150+ could materialize if conflict goes to November OR if iran had guts to strike Arab energy facilities the first month of war or attacked SoH ships like Ukraine is doing to Russia.

 

[KAL-EL]

Buddy please. How on earth is Saudi Arabia going to develop a nuke? With what industrial base and with which scientists

If that was the case, I'm sure they would get help from "someone" or someone's.

Iran going full nuclear isn't in a vacuum. Some other countries might not have a choice but to try to go nuclear. Let's be realistic here

 

[ShapurII]

That's why the war on Iran has bigger impact that the Russia-Ukraine war, but still got limited impact compared to the initial expectation because it got mitigated by the transitional period toward the green energy.

If it wasn't the surge of the renewable energy, war on Iran would be much more devastating than the war on Iraq for many non-oil producer nations.

The problem is that China has significantly reduced its oil imports, making current releases of the strategic petroleum reserve enough for other major oil importers.

So you’re telling me Trump will get re elected if the war continues like this until the elections?

(Not reelected literally, if he wins the midterm)

If it does, no. But it won't, because whenever oil prices stay too high, Trump forces Iran to accept another ceasefire. Then oil prices return to where they were while the Americans continue to soften our defenses during the ceasefire. The same recipe they and the Israelis have used on other places like Gaza, Syria, Lebanon, etc. Rinse and repeat.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

It does actually. There's no risk for him. He has destroyed Iran, set us back for at least a decade, and lost only 18 soldiers. What risk? lol

For comparison, the US lost 139 men during the invasion of Iraq in 3 weeks. So, again, what risk?

You talk as if Iran had been able to do anything to make this a risky war for Trump.

They have just under reported their own casualty for the midterm election sake.

 

[mangekyo]

If that was the case, I'm sure they would get help from "someone"

Thats just pure fantasy. They have no industrial base, no capable scientists. Even worse, the entire country is monitored by the US who they pay protection money to. They would get sanctioned to oblivion and destroyed before they could even think about a nuke.

 

[MS Sandhu]

Buddy please. How on earth is Saudi Arabia going to develop a nuke? With what industrial base and with which scientists?

Lol just pay the South Asians some good money and they will develop you the bomb in a decade or less.

 

[ShapurII]

It didn’t materialize because the energy war never happened.

Iran didn’t truly close SoH, about 4-7MBPD leaked thru. Add in the 2MBPD from UAE pipeline + 4MBPD from Saudi east-west pipeline = 10-13MBpd of the 20MBPD pre war was still flowing to global markets.

Iran didn’t have the guts to attack UAE or Saudi pipelines. In fact the worst attack on energy was actually carried out by Houthi’s 4 months into the conflict.

So 150+ could materialize if conflict goes to November OR if iran had guts to strike Arab energy facilities the first month of war or attacked SoH ships like Ukraine is doing to Russia.

That's my point. Iran never dared to go all suicidal and hit the targets it had to hit.

The fact that the Emirates oil production surpassed its war time production barely 2 months after the ceasefire is a clear indication of that.

This is while Iran lost almost its entire capacity of petrochemical exports and had its aluminum and steel production facilities hit severely by Israel.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

The problem is that China has significantly reduced its oil imports, making current releases of the strategic petroleum reserve enough for other major oil importers.

Yep, our leaders are too passive and want to play as the hero to salvage the world economy.

Because the current world economy is in very bad shape compared to the pre-2008 era, and cannot sustain another blow like the 2008 economic crisis.

However, I personally believe this attempt will be futile as a much bigger economic crisis is poised to happen, and this incoming tsunami will make the 2008 one looks like a small splash of water in comparison.

 

[mangekyo]

Lol just pay the South Asians some good money and they will develop you the bomb in a decade or less.

They are not going to survive a decade of sanctions and American hostility. Maybe not even a year.

 

[BigMela2onin]

Yep, our leaders are too passive and want to play as the hero to salvage the world economy.

The downside of larping like your planning 1000 years ahead is that usually your enemy doesn't wait that long.