Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds



As a reminder the Shiite pilgrimage ends on Tuesday. Did Iran buy a week of peace like it did for Khamenai’s funeral?

No it did not. The US doesn't give a sh*t about what some guy wrote 1500 years ago.

Missiles and energy-MAD in the region made the US back off and the fact that Iran has Hormuz (even though you call it leaky). Wake me up when 140 ships a day go through the so called Omani route. Very sustainable for an entire navy and air force to try to bring in 6-7 days a week. That's gonna help the US a lot!
 
What the heck? What is new idea nonsense? Totally Failed



 

As Trump balks again at escalating war, Iran smells ‘blood in the water’ and looks to exploit its newfound strategic advantage, experts say​


In what has become a familiar pattern in the Iran war, President Donald Trump again threatened a massive attack then pulled back from the brink.

But while he attributed his latest reversal to U.S. allies pleading with him to give diplomacy another chance, experts also see signs Iran is gaining the upper hand.

That’s as Tehran has used its proxies to expand the war across the region, most notably Houthis rebels threatening ships in the Red Sea that are trying to use the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.


At the same time, Iran has warned its Persian Gulf neighbors they will be targets in the event of a renewed bombardment after demonstrating that its long-range weapons can evade U.S. air defenses.

“Iran and its clients see blood in the water and see a benefit for all of them in escalating and entering the fray,” Afshon Ostovar, an Iran expert at the Naval Postgraduate School, told the Financial Times.

He added that their goal is to prolong the conflict instead of inflicting more severe damage as Iran looks to exploit less political endurance on the other side.

“So the longer it continues, the weaker the resolve of their enemies will be,” Ostovar explained. “That is how they see it.”



Indeed, Trump’s approval ratings on his handling of the economy have slumped alongside his numbers on the Iran war, with support slipping even among Republicans.

And now that midterm elections are just a few months away and gas prices are back up again, Tehran sees leverage in the U.S. political calendar.

An Iranian diplomat told the Wall Street Journal that the regime is prepared to take advantage of Trump political vulnerability and would consider preemptive strikes if talks fail.

That aggressive stance was on display last week, when Iran launched unprovoked attacks on U.S. bases in what Central Command called an “attempted surprise attack.”

By contrast, Trump’s continued restraint comes despite Iran crossing his red line for resuming all-out war after it killed U.S. troops in Jordan last month.

To be sure, the U.S. still retains significant military assets in the region and continues to enforce a naval blockade on Iran that’s causing more economic pain.

But the U.S. and its allies have also severely depleted stockpiles of interceptors needed to repel Iranian attacks, making critical pieces of their energy infrastructure more at risk.

Global energy markets have also sharply drawn down inventories of crude oil and refined products, with analysts warning that “tank bottoms” will be just around the corner unless the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon.


The combined effect is that the overall playing field has tilted in favor of the Islamic Republic.

“Last night’s events underscore a reality that is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore: for now, Iran appears to hold the strategic advantage in deterrence,” Dennis Citrinowicz, a former Israeli intelligence official who specialized in Iran, posted on X. “It has succeeded in creating a form of mutual deterrence that is shaping Washington’s calculations.”

Despite suffering heavy losses at that start of the war, Iran has since shown it can hold the global economy hostage by threatening maritime chokepoints and its Gulf neighbors, he added.

In fact, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke directly with Trump on Saturday to express concern over the plans for massive new U.S. strikes on Iran, sources told Axios.

The kingdom’s de facto ruler reportedly urged Trump to de-escalate and refrain from launching the attacks, days after the Saudi defense minister conveyed a similar message.

“President Trump may still decide to order military action. But the fact that Washington continues to hesitate suggests that it recognizes the risks of escalation and is not convinced that a broader campaign would compel Iran to back down,” Citrinowicz wrote.
 
These ceasefire-war cycles are the famous mowing of the lawn on a large scale.
Mowing the lawn isn't done on a week to week basis. This shows the US was unprepared and/or has no answers for what Iran is doing right now or does not want to accept the price Iran can impose on it. This is indecision and impossible outcomes. Iran now has to force the US' hand.
 

As Trump balks again at escalating war, Iran smells ‘blood in the water’ and looks to exploit its newfound strategic advantage, experts say​


In what has become a familiar pattern in the Iran war, President Donald Trump again threatened a massive attack then pulled back from the brink.

But while he attributed his latest reversal to U.S. allies pleading with him to give diplomacy another chance, experts also see signs Iran is gaining the upper hand.

That’s as Tehran has used its proxies to expand the war across the region, most notably Houthis rebels threatening ships in the Red Sea that are trying to use the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.


At the same time, Iran has warned its Persian Gulf neighbors they will be targets in the event of a renewed bombardment after demonstrating that its long-range weapons can evade U.S. air defenses.

“Iran and its clients see blood in the water and see a benefit for all of them in escalating and entering the fray,” Afshon Ostovar, an Iran expert at the Naval Postgraduate School, told the Financial Times.

He added that their goal is to prolong the conflict instead of inflicting more severe damage as Iran looks to exploit less political endurance on the other side.

“So the longer it continues, the weaker the resolve of their enemies will be,” Ostovar explained. “That is how they see it.”



Indeed, Trump’s approval ratings on his handling of the economy have slumped alongside his numbers on the Iran war, with support slipping even among Republicans.

And now that midterm elections are just a few months away and gas prices are back up again, Tehran sees leverage in the U.S. political calendar.

An Iranian diplomat told the Wall Street Journal that the regime is prepared to take advantage of Trump political vulnerability and would consider preemptive strikes if talks fail.

That aggressive stance was on display last week, when Iran launched unprovoked attacks on U.S. bases in what Central Command called an “attempted surprise attack.”

By contrast, Trump’s continued restraint comes despite Iran crossing his red line for resuming all-out war after it killed U.S. troops in Jordan last month.

To be sure, the U.S. still retains significant military assets in the region and continues to enforce a naval blockade on Iran that’s causing more economic pain.

But the U.S. and its allies have also severely depleted stockpiles of interceptors needed to repel Iranian attacks, making critical pieces of their energy infrastructure more at risk.

Global energy markets have also sharply drawn down inventories of crude oil and refined products, with analysts warning that “tank bottoms” will be just around the corner unless the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon.


The combined effect is that the overall playing field has tilted in favor of the Islamic Republic.

“Last night’s events underscore a reality that is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore: for now, Iran appears to hold the strategic advantage in deterrence,” Dennis Citrinowicz, a former Israeli intelligence official who specialized in Iran, posted on X. “It has succeeded in creating a form of mutual deterrence that is shaping Washington’s calculations.”

Despite suffering heavy losses at that start of the war, Iran has since shown it can hold the global economy hostage by threatening maritime chokepoints and its Gulf neighbors, he added.

In fact, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke directly with Trump on Saturday to express concern over the plans for massive new U.S. strikes on Iran, sources told Axios.

The kingdom’s de facto ruler reportedly urged Trump to de-escalate and refrain from launching the attacks, days after the Saudi defense minister conveyed a similar message.

“President Trump may still decide to order military action. But the fact that Washington continues to hesitate suggests that it recognizes the risks of escalation and is not convinced that a broader campaign would compel Iran to back down,” Citrinowicz wrote.
Yes. It does show that Iran can fight back and strike at will. It's a question of who is willing to eat more costs. The US didn't go into the war with this current scenario in mind. It might have accepted it as possible, but it was hoped it wouldn't happen. Now the question is, can the US accept a real peace or will they try to jerk around for the next months/years AND will Iran allow itself to be jerked around?
 
Yes. It does show that Iran can fight back and strike at will. It's a question of who is willing to eat more costs. The US didn't go into the war with this current scenario in mind. It might have accepted it as possible, but it was hoped it wouldn't happen. Now the question is, can the US accept a real peace or will they try to jerk around for the next months/years AND will Iran allow itself to be jerked around?
I think most likely there will be a couple more rounds before the US/Mr Trump finally accept this war has been lost. Iran's strategy to avoid full blown conflict and instead wear the US down is risky but good.
 
Personally I am loving that the Arab client states are feeling the consequences of their actions in this conflict. Article also hints at the propaganda that these autocrats inflict on their people.

Jordan Is Learning Its U.S. Alliance Has a Price in the Iran War​

The kingdom has become a target for Tehran as the U.S. relies more on its desert bases​


For much of the past month, Iran fired missiles and drones day after day at Jordan. But for many Jordanians, the blame for putting their small country on the front lines falls on President Trump.

“Trump is the cause of this war,” said Tahani Khalaf, 63 years old, as she walked with her sisters here in the Jordanian capital on a recent day, hours after another attack.
“America forced Jordan to become part of this.”
Lacking oil and surrounded by bigger powers, Jordan has relied on the U.S. for decades as a protector and for as much as $2 billion in annual military and economic aid.

Now, the U.S. needs Amman’s help more than ever. Jordan’s greater distance from Iran and willingness to let the Pentagon use its territory have made the country an increasingly important partner as the war drags on and Kuwait and other Persian Gulf allies have reduced their role.

But the expanded American footprint at bases in Jordan has come with risks, pulling the kingdom closer to a conflict that has already damaged its economy and shattered its sense of security. Trump’s decision to hold off on a planned attack this weekend provides hope for a respite, but over more than five months of conflict, renewed violence has often broken the calm suddenly.

Jordan is now firmly in Iran’s crosshairs. On eight of the last 14 days, Jordan’s military has reported on its website intercepting missiles or drones fired from Iran.
By raising the military pressure, Iran is seeking to stir up opposition to the war in Jordan and to the U.S. presence, analysts say.
I
t is a strategy that puts Jordan’s King Abdullah II in a bind. Even more so than other U.S. allies in the region, he is heavily dependent on Washington and one of its most reliable partners. But many Jordanians and much of the country’s large Palestinian population oppose U.S. Middle East policies and its backing of Israel.

“Jordan is so dependent on the U.S. that they can’t say no to them launching attacks from their territory,” said Danny Citrinowicz, a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, an Israel-based think tank. “But at the same time, these attacks could weaken the fragile stability in Jordan.”
Street scene in downtown Amman, Jordan with a boy walking along a row of buildings and a hillside of houses in the background.
Amman. An expanded American military presence in Jordan brings risks.
People and reflections of buildings and traffic at a bus stop in downtown Amman, Jordan.


Iran has fired at least 60 missiles and drones at Jordan since a ceasefire between Tehran and Washington collapsed July 8, said the Jordanian military, a faster pace than early in the conflict when the kingdom was targeted by 125 attacks over three months.
Most salvos have been aimed at bases hosting U.S. forces and have been intercepted, U.S. and Jordanian officials said. Three American servicemembers were killed on July 17 in a missile strike that struck prefabricated housing units at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan’s eastern desert. Iran launched another four-missile barrage last Wednesday that the U.S. military said was “an attempted surprise attack” on troops in Jordan’s eastern desert. At least one attack targeted Jordan’s only port, Aqaba.

“Jordan’s orientation regarding the U.S. or the presence of U.S. forces is unlikely to change,” said ⁠Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a policy organization that opposes Iran’s rulers. “But Tehran is comfortable just dialing up the pressure.”

Tehran hasn’t hit civilian targets in Jordan, but air-raid sirens have sounded multiple times in recent weeks in the capital and other areas, residents say.
Panoramic view of downtown Amman, Jordan, showing a valley filled with buildings and a bustling street.
Air-raid sirens have sounded multiple times in recent weeks in Amman.
That has sparked a rare public display of opposition to the government over the past month by over 300 former members of the kingdom’s Parliament, tribal leaders and civic activists who called for the removal of U.S. forces.

“Jordan is not a party to this war, and its people should not bear its consequences or pay the price for policies that do not serve the country’s supreme interests,” said the letter, which demanded an end to the 2021 bilateral agreement that gives the U.S. military “unimpeded access” to Jordanian bases.

Amjad Majali, a former member of Jordan’s parliament and a former minister who signed the letter, said it “reflects the position of the overwhelming majority of Jordanians. Yes, we support the state, but we do not support all of its practices.”

For years, Jordan sought to play down its close military and intelligence cooperation with the U.S. But Jordan’s role is now becoming too visible to obscure. Jordan is an attractive base for U.S. forces because it is among the Arab world’s most permissive hosts for U.S. military operations.

Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan’s eastern desert and several other bases in the country host U.S. fighters, air defense batteries and other military units used against Iran.
The White House and U.S. military didn’t respond to requests for comment.
People walking on a busy sidewalk in downtown Amman, Jordan.
Jordan sought to play down its close military and intelligence cooperation with the U.S.
The Roman Amphitheater in Downtown Amman, Jordan with a crowd of people in the foreground.
A Roman amphitheater in Amman. Anger at Trump over the Iran war doesn’t translate into support for Iran among Jordanians.

Jordanian officials have condemned Iranian missile and drone attacks as violations of the kingdom’s sovereignty, stressing that Jordan will defend its airspace and protect its citizens. But they also publicly play down Jordan’s cooperation with the U.S.

“There are no American bases in Jordan. We have American troops that are in Jordan as part of our longstanding military cooperation,” Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said last month at the Aspen Security Forum. 😃😃

Iran filed a formal protest at the United Nations against Jordan in March, accusing Amman of “facilitating hostile acts against Iranian territory.”
Jordan has tried to stay out of the region’s wars since the 1973 Arab conflict with Israel. But after the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks on Israel that plunged the region into conflict, Jordan has not only found itself attacked by Iran for hosting the U.S. military but also shooting down Iranian missiles headed toward Israel, a move that was unpopular internally.
A bald man with a beard wearing a black Adidas shirt in a store.
Saed Hasan fears Iran’s intentions.
Saed Hasan, 41, who runs a stall selling mobile-phone accessories in Amman, said his sales have fallen steeply since the war began.

“Do you believe you could be sleeping in your house and a missile could fall on you? This is something we have never experienced before. Until when? God knows,” he said.

At the same time, anger at Trump for starting the Iran war doesn’t equate to support for Iran and its Shiite Muslim leadership. Jordan’s population is 95% Sunni.
“If Iran had the chance, it would wipe us off the face of the earth,” said Hamada Qrada, 52, a barber. “God willing, may the oppressors destroy one another and stay far away from us.” 🤪
 

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