Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Immortals]

 

[Master Chief]

If the Strait is that leaky then why is Trump calling for another truce?

Excellent question. I would suggest that it may well be that the Strait is "leaky" but that the leak is so expensive to maintain that it would not be an economically viable long term prospect for the US to do so. Iran probably does have de facto control over the Strait, even if that means some ships get through under escort (which is clearly not a sustainable model).

The leak is too expensive to fix and too expensive to not fix. Which aptly reminds us that nothing was even broken before US-Israel started this war of choice!

 

[030292]

Trump negotiating with himself and still losing lol

 

[Shags101]

So basically everyone is contradicting what Trump has been posting even the Americans there was no surrender or even the most informal agreement about anything it’s starting to look like trumps bluff was called doesn’t mean action won’t happen sooner than later one way or the other

 

[Meengla]

I'm sure they can stop all sales and use all production to their own armed forces and take away 99% from Asia etc. Even the US mainland... Who is going to lob missiles and drones into the US mainland? Lol. Maybe save 10-15% for Ukraine. So I don't think the problem is the shortages, the problem is Iran can guarantee destroying all energy production in the region, no matter how many Patriots etc. there are. That's the real bargaining chip Iran has and the straits.

Right.
Iran is not as much without options as some perennial breast beaters in this thread say. Look at this video: If true, Americans are even leaving their presence in Iraq. Plus, the just-postponed latest attack on Iran would be only possible if the Pentagon got everything from the US military hardware, thus compromising preparedness against China and Russia and elsewhere.
Short, interesting video.

 

[030292]

Excellent question. I would suggest that it may well be that the Strait is "leaky" but that the leak is so expensive to maintain that it would not be an economically viable long term prospect for the US to do so. Iran probably does have de facto control over the Strait, even if that means some ships get through under escort (which is clearly not a sustainable model).

The leak is too expensive to fix and too expensive to not fix. Which aptly reminds us that nothing was even broken before US-Israel started this war of choice!

I think this is exactly whats happening, us army is probably escorting few willing vessels out of the strait but its just unsustainable to keep escorting vessels under the us army cover forever, that too very few like 5-10 as compared to 160+ before the war, this is one of the reasons why trump is having mental breakdowns, he cant keep escorting vessels, he cant take full control of the strait without significant losses, its a rock and a hard place situation, he cant stomach the fact that his own stupidity took 20% of oil and oil related products off the market.

 

[Meengla]

Mowing the lawn isn't done on a week to week basis. This shows the US was unprepared and/or has no answers for what Iran is doing right now or does not want to accept the price Iran can impose on it. This is indecision and impossible outcomes. Iran now has to force the US' hand.

Right.
The 'mowing the lawn' analogy doesn't apply here for many reason. The Israelis were next to Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria and could launch surprise attacks to 'mow the lawn' for decades. Here, the Americans are being kicked out of land presence, have to have expensive and exhausting attacks from the Arabian Sea, and the target is a large country who can and has shown fighting back capability. And quite possibly the worst society to try to break from within due to deeply steeped ideologies of martyrdom on top of sense of national survival. So it appears to me that Americans have picked a fight with one nation which cant buckle short of many nukes dropped on it.

 

[Abdul q]

Trump negotiating with himself and still losing lol

Said it before

 

[tsunset]

Iran should bomb the White House and US police stations/institutions to help the people there overthrow the regime

 

[TallGuy]

Iran should bomb the White House and US police stations/institutions to help the people there overthrow the regime

Iran will drain there enemies dry, its not in their favor to ceasefire ..this will go on till 2035. they are thinking long-term.

 

[Magi]

Indirect talks then.

 

[Meengla]

Excellent question. I would suggest that it may well be that the Strait is "leaky" but that the leak is so expensive to maintain that it would not be an economically viable long term prospect for the US to do so. Iran probably does have de facto control over the Strait, even if that means some ships get through under escort (which is clearly not a sustainable model).

The leak is too expensive to fix and too expensive to not fix. Which aptly reminds us that nothing was even broken before US-Israel started this war of choice!

"Expensive" is the operative word here. Deployments of so many ships, fuel, wear and tear, soldiers terms of deployments, accidents. A naval presence is not the same as as being on land. So maybe there was truth in the 'laundry room' fire and not hard to understand that given how unpopular this war is in America.
Even America can't sustain a naval blockade for long vs Iran's own blockade due to geographical reasons.

 

[hussain0216]

SPR went from going down 6-7M barrels per week to now just 3-3.5M. A reduction rate of HALF. Iran is losing leverage if it cannot enforce the closure of the SoH. At this rate getting to 250M barrels could take months.

@Persian Gulf

This is true

It was China that actually stopped a fast oil price rise,

China allowed its own reserves to be depleted, this stopped a economic and oil crises

Their is much more defence against oil shocks now, then the 1970s

However the fundamental is still the same, at some point stocks head towards critical, now that may take many months, but it all depends on how and if the war continues



Iran cannot afford to give up control.of the Hormuz because it needs a financial boost after this war

Iran also needs all sanctions removed

These THREE things are holding up any agreement

1- Nukes
2- Hormuz
3- Sanctions

The U.S is willing to bend significantly on sanctions, and even offer incentives

The nuclear issue and Hormuz issue both sides won't budge on

 

[kobra]

 

[Immortals]

Trump has gone on record today saying he won’t let Iran charge.

So for Iran what is the point of being basically the Mall Security Cop of the SoH?

It seems Trump has been pretty consistent — no charging of tolls, strait must be opened, no nuclear “dust”.

It is Iran that has been inconsistent with its messaging due to these loser reformists and politicians like Qalibaf. First they were charging $1M tolls. Then it became optional. Then it became joint with Oman. Then it was two lanes. Now it’s going to be one lane.