It seems Trump is going to be Jimmy Carter’d.
It doesn’t appear Iran is going to open the SoH until post November. Iran cannot give Trump an off ramp that might allow his Party to win in November, rebuild stockpiles somewhat for round 3 in 2027 or 2028, while reducing Iran’s leverage.
There is a reason Reagan, Bush Sr, Clinton, Bush W, Obama, and Biden didn’t touch Iran and it was all lessons learned from Jimmy Carter’s strategic failure.
Now Iran is going to remind the next 3 decades of future U.S. presidents why the thought of military adventure should be wiped from their conscious.
Bro, unlike Shapurll, you're actually an intelligent person, even if a doomer.
You cannot on the one side keep hammering on how leaky the SoH is, and on the other hand reasonate like this.
Of course some ships will go through the SoH. The point is, is it sustainable for the US military to keep such a huge presence just to escort 5-6 ships a day? That's ridiculous. Iran made the US play little tricks like transfering oil from big ships to little ships etc., things Iran did to avoid sanctions in the years past.
No PGCC country can do anything about this, it's well known. And the pak-turkey-saudi nonsense is just that, nonsense. Nobody is going to do anything except try to score some points, get some Saudi money. Which is good for them then.
They won't even touch the Houthis, never mind Iran.
As to your post with bases hit, it's quite clear the US can't keep a presence in Iraq and many smaller PGCC countries. It's just too vulnerable. Vulnerable doesn't mean all stationed soldiers will die in flames, it means the base has no value. No value means: aircraft can't take off there, aircraft can't be protected, there can't be training, there can't be stationing, radars blown up etc. That is the meaning of vulnerable.
