Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Mobius]

 

[Immortals]

If trump continues this he will lose. Iran can handle a blockade quite well for long periods of time.

Keep in mind he went back to the economic blockade because

A) oil prices fell from $100 to $80

B) Iran is not attacking energy facilities in the region

C) iran is not attacking enough tankers in the SoH to stop the estimated 5-7MBPD that are going thru every night to do Ship to Ship transfers off the coast of UAE and Oman.

 

[Immortals]

U.S. claims they are smuggling 8 MBPD out of the Strait every night.

8MBPD + 2MBPD thru UAE pipeline + 4MBPD from Saudi pipeline to Red Sea = 14MBPD out of the original 20MBPD prewar.

So a Shortfall of ~5MBPD compared to prewar status. But has improved a lot by the 12MBPD shortfall that was happening at the height of the war in March.

Iran is now under economic blockade and cannot retaliate much due to accepting the unwritten ceasefire.

Let’s see if Iran has any cards up it sleeve to reverse the leaky the SoH.

 

[Immortals]

 

[Shags101]

I guess if everyone is reporting the same thing it must be the greatest pyops in human history being lead by a masterful strategist like Trump…….na there’s definite shortages otherwise we are now how many days without an agreement still it was supposed to be Wednesday than Friday than I guess nobody knows

 

[kobra]

 

[kobra]

It’s clear both US and Israel are trying to locate Mojtaba with the hopes that killing him will cause a power vacuum with no immediate Supreme Leader candidate likely to get enough consensus and maybe hopes for a more moderate candidate like Rouhani or Khatami.

They are running out of options and desperate at this point.

President Pezakshian has met Mojtaba Khameni today or in last days... I think Mosaad is successful in getting a link stablished to locate him...

 

[Nawnaw1]

U.S. claims they are smuggling 8 MBPD out of the Strait every night.

8MBPD + 2MBPD thru UAE pipeline + 4MBPD from Saudi pipeline to Red Sea = 14MBPD out of the original 20MBPD prewar.

So a Shortfall of ~5MBPD compared to prewar status. But has improved a lot by the 12MBPD shortfall that was happening at the height of the war in March.

Iran is now under economic blockade and cannot retaliate much due to accepting the unwritten ceasefire.

Let’s see if Iran has any cards up it sleeve to reverse the leaky the SoH.

There you go dooming again. If you think 8 m bpd is actually getting out of Hormuz, or 14 million as you say, you need a reality check.

 

[MS Sandhu]

If trump continues this he will lose. Iran can handle a blockade quite well for long periods of time.

Iran at some point will have to do something about the naval blockade.And except opening the strait of Hormuz, Iran has no option.

Blockade literally takes the whole economic cycle back to zero.You are unable to generate the revenue, in turn - unable to fund the critical imports - industrial production falls, internal cash flow comes to halt - giving rise to inflation that can make the things difficult to handle internally.

I'll argue this strategy is more dangerous than the active bombing , of course if employed for good time.

 

[SecularNationalist]

A new era of jet engine powered drones. Russia is already using them in Ukraine war though in lesser quantity. Imagine how deadly they will be with jet engine speed.

 

[UberShock]

Наступает новая эра беспилотников с реактивными двигателями. Россия уже использует их в войне на Украине, хотя и в меньшем количестве. Представьте, насколько смертоносными они будут, развивая скорость реактивных двигателей.

They already exists. It is called cruise missile

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

There are no civil wars in Latin American countries, and their crappy economies are like the USA economy after be destroyed by one million financial bubbles.

But one big Eurasian conflict gave USA hegemony, and another could keep the hegemony in his decline.

Nuclear war with strategic nuclear weapons is a matter of one hour, in one hour changes the world powers forever, and Iran war could be the excuse to move and launch the nuclear weapons against other actors.

USA is a de iure democracy, it needs excuses, lies and fake narratives to move and use their arsenal, they already have potential excuses to move and use nukes against Russia/China, thanks to Iran war. They already have started to sing the song of we're running out of conventional weapons.

Yep, the alternative scenario for the US would be a giant banana republic.

Some Chinese think tanks have also mentioned of this possibility.

 

[RzA]

SOH is indeed leaky. Tankers continue to be escorted.

 

[Jalz]

Iran at some point will have to do something about the naval blockade.And except opening the strait of Hormuz, Iran has no option.

Blockade literally takes the whole economic cycle back to zero.You are unable to generate the revenue, in turn - unable to fund the critical imports - industrial production falls, internal cash flow comes to halt - giving rise to inflation that can make the things difficult to handle internally.

I'll argue this strategy is more dangerous than the active bombing , of course if employed for good time.

Iran can export by land and it already exported enough oil this year to cover the costs for 4 months or more. Its likely the US SPR will begin to collapse before that happens.

 

[Immortals]