Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Watandar]

He's repeating "all mines are cleared" every month.

He is unable to jawbone oil prices down anymore and that is an additional source of frustration. His maga base is deeply unhappy over the fuel bill.

 

[Persian Gulf]

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

He is unable to jawbone oil prices down anymore and that is an additional source of frustration. His maga base is deeply unhappy over the fuel bill.

The price of gasoline at the local Costco is up $0.15 from a week ago. The US fall harvest season will start in about 6 weeks give or take.

 

[Watandar]

The price of gasoline at the local Costco is up $0.15 from a week ago. The US fall harvest season will start in about 6 weeks give or take.

He dropped tariffs on beef because the prices had become absurdly high because of tariffs and oil price. He wants out of this war but Iran is refusing to talk because of his past perfidity. He is hoisted by his own petard.

 

[Flotilla]

I have said that nobody is controlling uranium enrichment in Pickaxe. And there are probably already other non declared sites.
During months nobody has checked any other installation, assuming the previous all three have been completely destroyed and none of them repaired (specially Natanz).

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

He dropped tariffs on beef because the prices had become absurdly high because of tariffs and oil price. He wants out of this war but Iran is refusing to talk.

Because they are eyeing the bigger picture and putting their bets there. A similar strategy worked for the North Vietnamese.

 

[Watandar]

Because they are eyeing the bigger picture and putting their bets there. A similar strategy worked for the North Vietnamese.

Yes but the North Vietnamese had a direct supply line from China, which the US could not disrupt despite blasting the Ho Chi Minh Trail in North Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia. That is the part Iranians are missing and hence it's just gambling that Trump will surrender before they have to.

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

Yes but the North Vietnamese had a direct supply line from China, which the US could not disrupt despite blasting the Ho Chi Minh Trail in North Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia. That is the part Iranians are missing and hence it's just gambling that Trump will surrender before they have to.

Are we certain Iran is not being resupplied to some extent by Russia and / or China? Even if they are missing it, they have something the US people in general and Trump in particular doesn't have: patience to see this through.

Yes, that is exactly what they are doing; betting on the outcome of the midterms.

 

[Flotilla]

Because they are eyeing the bigger picture and putting their bets there. A similar strategy worked for the North Vietnamese.

The question is, was the US population up against the ropes back then the way they are now?

Under the current president, subsidies are minimal, and they were already grappling with high inflation. I am not convinced the population can handle another dose of inflation caused by someone else's war.

 

[Master Chief]

Yes but the North Vietnamese had a direct supply line from China, which the US could not disrupt despite blasting the Ho Chi Minh Trail in North Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia. That is the part Iranians are missing and hence it's just gambling that Trump will surrender before they have to.

It's even more of a tenuous analogy when you consider the influence of Tel Aviv, which was irrelevant afaik in Vietnam. USA remains stuck unless USA can force global oil (+ cargo) prices down consistently. Iran is equally stuck and will likely taste more violence due to American frustration. Can't see an easy off ramp for either party and all the while, Tel Aviv laughs.

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

The question is, was the US population up against the ropes back then the way they are now?

Under the current president, subsidies are minimal, and they were already grappling with high inflation. I am not convinced the population can handle another dose of inflation caused by someone else's war.

At the time, no. The people were not against the ropes. They were just tired of a "forever" war and no end in sight with a constant stream of US angel flights coming back. Tet 1968 was the final straw yet it took 5 more years for us to exit.

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

It's even more of a tenuous analogy when you consider the influence of Tel Aviv, which was irrelevant afaik in Vietnam. USA remains stuck unless USA can force global oil (+ cargo) prices down consistently. Iran is equally stuck and will likely taste more violence due to American frustration. Can't see an easy off ramp for either party and all the while, Tel Aviv laughs.

The President boasts that he told Israel to stay out of it. Yet, there have been a number of articles from Israel where certain Israeli officials are all too happy to let the US fight on their behalf. This has been a hot topic in a couple of my other circles. None of us are really happy about it.

 

[Watandar]

To

It's even more of a tenuous analogy when you consider the influence of Tel Aviv, which was irrelevant afaik in Vietnam. USA remains stuck unless USA can force global oil (+ cargo) prices down consistently. Iran is equally stuck and will likely taste more violence due to American frustration. Can't see an easy off ramp for either party and all the while, Tel Aviv laughs.

To his minor credit, Trump has already told Tel Aviv to F off. They wanted the war to resume and escalate it to completely cripple Iranian infrastructure and industry, consequences be damned. Trump has rejected that repeatedly since the initial April ceasefire. The Israelis didn't want that ceasefire either.

Most Americans do realize how badly Netanyahu tricked them into this war. It is part of the reason for the pushback against AIPAC.

I don't think getting out of this is that difficult. Trump is ready but he is utterly un-trustworthy. There is a need for a guarantor for any deal with Mr Trump but who can be that guarantor ?

Perhaps the United Nations Security Council ?

 

[GWXP]

View attachment 212478

Nominal GDP is just official market exchange rate GDP.

It is calculated by dividing GDP in rials by the official market exchange rate.

What do you expect when Iran is cut off from the international trade and is under sanctions and 1$=2mln rials.

But real capacity of the economy is shown by GDP PPP which in 2025 was 1,9trln$.

In reality Iran's GDP PPP is larger than 1,9trln$ by 35% due to presence of huge shadow economy.

So real Iran's GDP PPP in 2025 was 1,9trln*1,35=2,5trln dollars and GDP PPP per capita with shadow economy = 26.000-27.000 PPP dollars per capita.

Iran has huge shadow economy due to:
1) low quality statistics from the official Statistical Center of Iran
2) tax evasion
3) unofficial labor

While shadow economy makes Iran's economy larger, government collects taxes only from the official part of the economy.

Same applies to military spendings: officially Iran spends 2,5% of GDP on military.

But this is only tip of the iceberg:
1) IRGC owned Khatam al Anbiya corporation finances additional defense spendings from its profits.
2) IRGC has out of the budget oil quota when they get oil, sell it abroad and use the oil money to finance additional defense spendings
3) IRGC participates in smuggling operations and use the earned money to finance additional defense spendings.

So in total Iran's defense spendings can be around 4%-4,8% of GDP according to some sources.

So with official GDP PPP of 1,9trln and 4% defense budget, Iran spends 76bln PPP dollars on defense and if we take into account specific Military PPP of Peter Robertson who multiplies PPP defense budgets of countries like Iran by a coefficient of around 1,3, then Iran's defense spendings in 2025 were equivalent to 76bln*1,3=100bln$ .

So US spent 900bln$ on defense, while Iran spent 100bln$ equivalent.

https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/debating-defence-budgets-why-military-purchasing-power-parity-matters

 

[Shags101]

Are we certain Iran is not being resupplied to some extent by Russia and / or China? Even if they are missing it, they have something the US people in general and Trump in particular doesn't have: patience to see this through.

Yes, that is exactly what they are doing; betting on the outcome of the midterms.

Seriously I don’t care for this war one way or the other but it’s extremely odd that Iran is being very quiet war was never popular to start with Americans need something to latch on to a war to make it popular in the short term to make their patriotic blood boil your not getting that from the left or right September 11 Afghanistan with Taliban and Al qaeda running the show had it coming(hell I was singing Toby Keith red white and blue) than came Iraq epic fail no one understood it(saddam and his people are and will always be scum), Venezuela no one cared and now Iran WTF……..holy the return of the run on sentence king Batman