Change the US with Iran, its still true.
Let's see who blinks first.
What’s Iran’s leverage to get the U.S. to back off? Strait of Hormuz
Yet there is no military planner on Earth that would recommend to a leader of iran to allow the SoH to be leaky and stretch and weaken that leverage for 6 months and damage the fabric of society and the economic engines.
So one has to conclude,
Iran can’t actually close the SoH. It can harass it, but it cannot close it. That is a chilling revelation. Because the SoH at its narrowest point is less than 25 miles across. And Iran has multiple islands in that zone and has a massive coastline overlooking that zone with high mountains providing altitude.
If Iran cannot reliably shut down such a narrow band of water that is sticking right next to its borders then that’s a massive sign of weakness. I don’t care how strong the U.S. military is. Any country should be able to close a 20 mile zone next to its borders. It’s the basic litmus test of sovereignty.
The current war has the Western world against Iran (minus some moral support from Spain). The Arabs hate Iran. Parts of Iraq hate Iran. Many in India hate Iran. The Japanese and Koreans don’t support Iran.
This isn’t a world Iran can survive in its current state. Assad is gone. The Houthi’s are controlling the poorest country in Middle East. Hezbollah is retreating. Gaza is in ruins. Putin is tied up in Ukraine. Xi has no interest in siding with Iranians over its lucrative contracts with Arabs. Iraq is cracking down on Iraqi militias that were once untouchable.
The stage is set for the collapse of the Axis of Resistance. The Anti U.S. Anti Israel message of 1980s was in a world that had a revolutionary China, Saddam in Iraq, Ghaddafi in Libya, the Soviet Union, Castro in Cuba, Chavez in Venezuela.
It’s an outdated and irrelevant message in 2026. The world has changed and it’s much more unipolar than at anytime in history. Russia and China are not bulwarks against this unipolarity, they are merely trying to survive in it without turning into the next Iran — cornered and under siege.
The only chance Iran had was to drag the world into a global depression that would crush countries by setting all the energy installations on fire even if it meant losing its own and even if it meant a nuclear strike or a land war.
Instead Iran chose to die cornered and under siege just like Assad, Saddam, and Ghaddafi. This is symptom of a country that is run by oligarchs and elites who care more about survival of their fortunes than winning any power games.