Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[AZ_HighCountry]

You either believe:

American side: Short fall is 2-3MBPD (15-18MBPD getting thru)
Iranian side: Shortfall is 12-13MBPD (6-7MBPD getting thru)
OSINT side: Shortfall is 7-8MBPD (10-12MBPD getting thru)

*including re-routing thru Yanbu on Red Sea

Again none of this covers LNG, petroleum products, fertilizer, and helium.

Right now it’s not yet an oil problem - it’s a refined products problem (diesel). That could change if refineries continue to forego maintenance (utilization at record 98%) and if China resumes buying oil on open market at pre-war amounts.

The Chinese dropping demand by 5MBPD has gone mostly not talked about.

If you've been following some of mine as well as @Davey Crockett 's posts in the US Perspectives thread, we have been talking about that. In fact, in that thread, someone was crowing that the price of fertilizer was coming down. At this point, what difference does it make? It's too late; the planting season was months ago. The question now is do the farmers have the available capital to procure fertilizer now ahead of next spring's planting season? I doubt it.

Davey and I have both noted that US refineries are particularly vulnerable due to the delayed maintenance. And, for those familiar with US weather patterns know that hurricane season is upon us as well. Where are most of the refineries located?

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

For those who are interested, the chart below is an accurate representation of the products from a barrel of oil. Guess which product is last on the cracking process?



FWIW, diesel fuel has been required to be ultra low sulfur for many years now in the US. That adds additional costs to the refining process.

 

[030292]

 

[Immortals]

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

Well, for those who like Iranian cheese, this will be painful.

 

[Immortals]

. And, for those familiar with US weather patterns know that hurricane season is upon us as well. Where are most of the refineries located?

Hurricane season is almost over. And a strong el Nino usually prevents major storms as upper atmosphere winds are not conducive for development. So I don’t expect hurricane season to play a part. Sure there is always a chance a storm forms in the Gulf, but I thankfully the probability is a lot less this year.

Also seems US officials are taking the propaganda down a notch.

 

[030292]

I wouldn't put it past our incompetent leadership but its an israeli account so take it with a grain of salt.

 

[Ali_Baba]

I would be very surprised if this is true. I dont think it is. There maybe daily logistical issues, but I think it is a bit much to stretch that to systematic sanctions on the flow of traffic.

Pakistan wants to replace UAE for all porting of Iranian ships and it can't really do that, if it then closes down the land border.

Take it with a pinch of salt ..