Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

You either believe:

American side: Short fall is 2-3MBPD (15-18MBPD getting thru)
Iranian side: Shortfall is 12-13MBPD (6-7MBPD getting thru)
OSINT side: Shortfall is 7-8MBPD (10-12MBPD getting thru)

*including re-routing thru Yanbu on Red Sea

Again none of this covers LNG, petroleum products, fertilizer, and helium.

Right now it’s not yet an oil problem - it’s a refined products problem (diesel). That could change if refineries continue to forego maintenance (utilization at record 98%) and if China resumes buying oil on open market at pre-war amounts.

The Chinese dropping demand by 5MBPD has gone mostly not talked about.
If you've been following some of mine as well as @Davey Crockett 's posts in the US Perspectives thread, we have been talking about that. In fact, in that thread, someone was crowing that the price of fertilizer was coming down. At this point, what difference does it make? It's too late; the planting season was months ago. The question now is do the farmers have the available capital to procure fertilizer now ahead of next spring's planting season? I doubt it.

Davey and I have both noted that US refineries are particularly vulnerable due to the delayed maintenance. And, for those familiar with US weather patterns know that hurricane season is upon us as well. Where are most of the refineries located?
 
For those who are interested, the chart below is an accurate representation of the products from a barrel of oil. Guess which product is last on the cracking process?

1788710930247.png

FWIW, diesel fuel has been required to be ultra low sulfur for many years now in the US. That adds additional costs to the refining process.
 
. And, for those familiar with US weather patterns know that hurricane season is upon us as well. Where are most of the refineries located?

Hurricane season is almost over. And a strong el Nino usually prevents major storms as upper atmosphere winds are not conducive for development. So I don’t expect hurricane season to play a part. Sure there is always a chance a storm forms in the Gulf, but I thankfully the probability is a lot less this year.

Also seems US officials are taking the propaganda down a notch.

 


I would be very surprised if this is true. I dont think it is. There maybe daily logistical issues, but I think it is a bit much to stretch that to systematic sanctions on the flow of traffic.

Pakistan wants to replace UAE for all porting of Iranian ships and it can't really do that, if it then closes down the land border.

Take it with a pinch of salt ..
 
I would be very surprised if this is true. I dont think it is. There maybe daily logistical issues, but I think it is a bit much to stretch that to systematic sanctions on the flow of traffic.

Pakistan wants to replace UAE for all porting of Iranian ships and it can't really do that, if it then closes down the land border.

Take it with a pinch of salt ..
Yes. I read before this guy praising israelí attacks. Anyway it is against Pakistán interest to let Irán fall.

Israel would never rest until Pakistán finally falls, deleting the only muslim nuclear power.
 
USA's second man talks about End Times and Anti-Christ

JD Vance says he’s doing ‘God’s work – and if that leads to the end times, OK’​

Vice-president says on evangelical podcast he would feel ‘not shocked if the antichrist was walking among us’

Maya Yang
Wed 2 Sep 2026 20.55 BST
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Prefer the Guardian on Google
JD Vance has said he is “doing as much of God’s work as possible” and that he is OK “if that leads to the end times”, which he says “are coming”.

The US vice-president made the comments during a Monday podcast interview with Bryce Crawford, a 22-year-old evangelical host with over a million YouTube followers and videos featuring sensationalist headlines including “Preaching the gospel in Chicago’s deadliest neighborhood” and “Debating a ‘gay’ pastor”.


Speaking about the Christian prophetic notion that the world as humanity knows it will end one day, Vance said: “Do I think we are in the end times? I don’t know.

“While I’m fascinated by it, I think that focusing on it too much can be very bad,” he said, adding that if his work “leads to the end times, OK, and if that leads to … us building a better world that thrives and survives for a very long time after I’m gone, that’s great, too”.

Vance, who published a spiritual memoir earlier this summer about his conversion to Catholicism, said: “I think you got to just kinda try and have an attitude of: the end times may be coming, in fact they are coming, it’s just a question of whether they’re coming thousands of years down the road, or a few months down the road.”

He said: “I think there are things about the world that make me feel, like, not shocked if the antichrist was walking among us.”

Vance pointed to artificial intelligence, using the example of an acquaintance who uses AI as a marriage counselor, which he described as “kind of satanic”. He said: “When you completely divorce the human from the social element that God made us for … that’s very bad.”

In response to a question about whether he had ever been in a room that was “spiritually dark”, Vance said he had “been in meetings with world leaders where various issues are being discussed, and somebody will say something or somebody will make an observation, and I’ll feel some darkness about it”.

“It sets off every spiritual alarm bell in my body,” he added.

Vance also defended Donald Trump’s controversial depiction of himself as Jesus in an AI-generated photo, subsequently deleted, that the president posted earlier this year, which Crawford said “made me upset”.

“The president didn’t mean any offense. Obviously, he loves Christians … Did Donald Trump mean to post a meme of himself as God? No. The president has a good sense of humor. He did not mean to mock or mimic God. That’s just not who he is,” Vance said, adding that Trump is “a backslapper” and “a bit of a ball buster”.

Following outrage from Christian supporters, Trump deleted the photo and insisted that the photo was “supposed to be me as a doctor making people feel better”.
People criticise Iran for having religious fanatics, I do wonder if in reality the US is much worse.
 

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