Military targets parked in Israel's airbase that are planning to strike Iran? F-35s, F-15s, tankers ammunition depot and runways. The focus should be on these targets.
Target key airbases like Nevatim, Hatzerim, Tel Nof, and Ramon with a calculated barrage of roughly 50 missiles delivered in four distinct waves offers the best chance at penetration.
The assault should begin with older saturation platforms like the Ghadr or Emad series to draw out defenses.
Once the defensive grid is occupied, follow up with high-end hypersonic and precision assets, specifically the Kheibar Shekan or Fattah series.
Incorporating Khorramshahr cluster munitions early on will widen the strike area across the airfields while rapidly burning through the defender's active interceptor inventory.
Given the current logistical strain on local air defenses, keeping up a sustained interception rate will be nearly impossible once those missiles have to reload.
If Iran managed to cause real destruction during the 12-day war when defense systems were fully loaded, there is no reason to believe they would be unable to inflict serious damage this time around under depleted conditions.
Iran has also taken the initiative to strike first. So I don't see why they cannot do it again.
I am confident they still have plenty of launchers available, especially considering how they have managed to strike bases in Jordan with impunity even after nearly seven months of continuous conflict. At this point, any operational bottleneck comes down to a shortage of actual missiles rather than a lack of launchers.
That is ultimately up to the Houthis to decide. From my perspective, they are currently tied up with Saudi Arabia, so we should not expect too much heavy lifting from them right now. The real expectation is for Iran to step up and take the initiative and they will remain the primary focus of my argument.
Drones are essentially off the table for deep strikes due to the extreme distance, unless they manage to acquire and deploy a jet-powered variant like the Geran-5. Even if long-range drones are utilized, their deployment makes far more sense against nearby regional assets, such as Israeli staging areas or launch pads in Erbil.
Ultimately, my analysis revolves around Iran taking the initiative. Israel is no longer pulling its punches and is already showing clear signs of escalating the conflict. While I can offer strategic assessments, the final choices rest entirely with Iranian leadership. The operational approach here mirrors a basic street fight. You do not sit back and wait for the adversary to throw a sucker punch but instead bring the fight directly to their doorstep by throwing the first punch.
