Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Hayabusa]

This is embarassing coming from the US if it's true.

 

[Persian Gulf]

No, not even close. Iran's revenue from the Strait of Hormuz will not surpass $15 billion, even if all countries, and I emphasize all countries, accept to pay Iran the fee that the IRGC is wishing for and do not think about replacing the Strait of Hormuz in a couple of years, and the Strait of Hormuz does not remain leaky. So, that's Iran's income in the ideal situation.

Iran's oil exports have dropped to fewer than 300K barrels per day, and probably even fewer than 150K barrels per day. That would add another $10 billion of income. So, in the most optimistic scenario where China buys our oil without discount and all the countries do what the IRGC wants them to do, our income from this strategy would add up to $25 billion.

That's still about 30%-40% less than what it was before the US naval blockade on Iran. Not to mention that the chance of the first scenario ever happening is pretty unlikely as well because 1. the Strait of Hormuz is leaky, 2. not all countries will pay the IRGC their transit fee, 3. Arabs will soon replace and bypass the Strait of Hormuz in a couple of years.

So, why choose a stupid strategy that reduces your income by about 35% and is unsustainable in the long run? Iran should secure nukes, and guarantee its right to close the Strait of Hormuz in war time. Imposing a transit fee during peace time is unsustainable.

Iran’s budget assumed $50 price of oil per barrel and only 30% of the budget comes from oil export revenues

Given Iran managed to export large amounts through ships already outside the blockade zone at much higher prices and continues to export some oil through STS transfer and land routes, the situation is very bad but not yet catastrophic in the short term

 

[Persian Gulf]

Trump is desperately trying to control the energy situation by issuing sanctions waivers for Russia

 

[Persian Gulf]

 

[ShapurII]

Iran’s budget assumed $50 price of oil per barrel and only 30% of the budget comes from oil export revenues

Given Iran managed to export large amounts through ships already outside the blockade zone at much higher prices and continues to export some oil through STS transfer and land routes, the situation is very bad but not yet catastrophic in the short term

As you know, budget and GDP are different things. Iran's GDP is nosediving and Iran's currency is reaching new lows every week.

Yeah, in the short term, we will have only 250% inflation and constant devaluation of the Iranian Rial. Fact of the matter is that you cannot rule over a country with 90 million people and 5 million illegal immigrants with just $25 billion of oil exports while your imports alone is already about $20 billion or more.

 

[Persian Gulf]

As you know, budget and GDP are different things. Iran's GDP is nosediving and Iran's currency is reaching new lows every week.

Yeah, in the short term, we will have only 250% inflation and constant devaluation of the Iranian Rial. Fact of the matter is that you cannot rule over a country with 90 million people and 5 million illegal immigrants with just $25 billion of oil exports while your imports alone is already about $20 billion or more.

Budget is more important than GDP. If they can fund the budget, they can sustain operations as expected. This is why IRI is not desperate for a deal (other than the usual west loving suspects).

Iran is still exporting some fuel products even by ship (as well as land, of course):

 

[Immortals]

This.

If 12 GBU-57s that had been specifically tailored for the destruction of Iran's nuclear facilities under mountains couldn't completely destroy Fordow's enrichment plant after entering its ventilation shaft,

Well Fordow is destroyed, not sure what world you live in that those bombs didn’t penetrate the enrichment hall.

When Iran built Fordow in early 2000s, air dropped bombs we’re not precise enough to have a margin of error of less than 2 meters especially in a contested ECW atmosphere so they figured they were safe. Also no bunker buster existed at the time that could penetrate that deep. Except the idiotic engineers who didn’t build a zig zag ventilation shaft and built a nearly vertical one which defeated the purpose of building under a mountain to begin with.

Nothing short of a nuclear strike on the Pick Axe mountain can finish the job.

Or just take out its power source. This isn’t the world of Harry Potter, the base needs power to operate.

However, there's no need to attack the Pick Axe mountain as nothing clandestine is happening there. Iran's HEU has been buried in Natanz and Fordow.

Also, Iran doesn't have enough uranium reserves and yellow cake,

Iran’s uranium mines are still working and have been working thru the wars. So this information is false.

and enough new centrifuges, to restart enriching uranium in the Pick Axe mountain from scratch either.

Also false, before Fordow was attacked vanes and heavy lift vehicles came and took some centrifuges away. And the question is can Iran build IR-4 or IR-6 centrifuges somewhere in a 100-200 cascade set up in Western Iran inconspicuously.

Therefore, as long as satellite images show that Iran's uranium has not been moved from their previous locations,

No one knows where Iran’s uranium all went to. From Natanz they could have met decoy trucks along the way with the same type of blue barrels that Iran uses and done a Mission Impossible switchero for all we know.

But it’s all a moot point. Neither Mojtaba Bin Laden nor the reformists want nukes. Truly brain dead leadership we have been cursed with.

 

[Immortals]

Budget is more important than GDP. If they can fund the budget, they can sustain operations as expected. This is why IRI is not desperate for a deal (other than the usual west loving suspects).

Iran is still exporting some fuel products even by ship (as well as land, of course):

Wow 4 million barrels of condensates since June.

That comes out to *checks notes*……33K barrels per day.

Iran’s budget was only secured to March 2027. After that the pain will begin because transporting 250K barrels per day to China via railway is not enough to keep the country afloat. It needs hard currency to pay for imports and to trade with Russians and Chinese. They don’t want the garbage rial that cannot be spent anywhere outside of the country.

 

[Kyussis]

India would nuke Pakistan if it ever thought about nuking its beloved Israel

What would the U.S do if they got wind that Pakistan was going to nuke the entity?

 

[Persian Gulf]

Wow 4 million barrels of condensates since June.

That comes out to *checks notes*……33K barrels per day.

Iran’s budget was only secured to March 2027. After that the pain will begin because transporting 250K barrels per day to China via railway is not enough to keep the country afloat. It needs hard currency to pay for imports and to trade with Russians and Chinese. They don’t want the garbage rial that cannot be spent anywhere outside of the country.

Key point is from June (much more before June) and at much higher prices than budgeted since and before then

The situation will get worse in 2027 but for now IRI feels comfortable

If the situation becomes desperate we will know because IRI will try to escalate

 

[ShapurII]

Budget is more important than GDP. If they can fund the budget, they can sustain operations as expected. This is why IRI is not desperate for a deal (other than the usual west loving suspects).

This sort of logic doesn't work on a country that has had 4 violent protests in the last 7-8 years, 3 of which were purely because of the economic situation in Iran.

The budget is for the Iranian government to run the country with the bare minimum and a bunch of useless theocratic institutions that are money pits with no useful output like Hoze Elmiyeh or the IRIB, it does not go to the pocket of the Iranians or on their tables. Even the healthcare system of Iran is collapsing rapidly due to budget issues. The Ministry of Science, Research and Technology has stopped funding new scientific projects already.

Iran's GDP per capita is now $3500, even lower than Iraq which is about $5000 now.
So, yes, in case of Iran which has had nearly zero economic growth since 2005, GDP is more important than budget.

 

[Persian Gulf]

This sort of logic doesn't work on a country that has had 4 violent protests in the last 7-8 years, 3 of which were purely because of the economic situation in Iran.

The budget is for the Iranian government to run the country with the bare minimum and a bunch of useless theocratic institutions that are money pits with no useful output like Hoze Elmiyeh or the IRIB, it does not go to the pocket of the Iranians or on their tables. Even the healthcare system of Iran is collapsing rapidly due to budget issues. The Ministry of Science, Research and Technology has stopped funding new scientific projects already.

Iran's GDP per capita is now $3500, even lower than Iraq which is about $5000 now.
So, yes, in case of Iran which has had nearly zero economic growth since 2005, GDP is more important than budget.

GDP per capita in PPP terms is still reasonable

And the budget funds subsidies and monthly credit to everyone to help them fund core necessitates, that is very important

Iran was attacked by the world’s superpower and the region’s superpower, it is not reasonable to expect GDP growth in such conditions

 

[Persian Gulf]

Iran (blue) and Ukraine (green) GDP per capita (PPP) from 1990 to 2025

Iran has had slightly higher GDP (PPP) growth than Ukraine since 1990, despite international sanctions and an economy rife with corruption and lack of productivity