Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Immortals]

Xi Xi the Western Appeaser, his days are numbered. The new generation of Moaists are rising. This is favorable development for Iran long term.

 

[Falcon29]

There's going to be a deal. Iran absorbed strikes but how significant that will be depends on how far back their nuclear program was set. They'll also need about two years to recover to their pre-war strength. US is building more Patriot + Thaad systems to deploy over next three years or so across the region.

This deal will be more of a 2-3 year pause. We'll see if Iranian leadership pursues longer range missiles and nuclear weapons or not.

We'll see how Israeli policy evolves and will need to observe Lebanon + Syria arenas to see how their policy evolves. Gaza will be sidelined for foreseeable future. Gaza reconstruction may not even begin for another 5 years.

 

[Falcon29]

Qatar PM meeting with Trump is likely about forwarding Iranian response of agreeing to deal for sanctions relief + end of USN blockade.

Iran survived and strangled the Gulf States and Strait of Hormuz. But it failed to direct effective strikes at Israel whether through itself or allies in region. Which means Israel will be eager to reignite hostilities at a later time and will be the one to likely reignite tensions. Israel has more reach in Iran than Iran has in Israel and I don't know how Iran could change that except through creating a nuclear deterrent.

What this tells us is nobody besides Turkey and Egypt have a credible deterrent against Israel and Egypt is more likely to have strongest offensive package of any Muslim states in region against Israel.

 

[Falcon29]

I would think Iran would become less risk averse after what transpired to its axis over the past few years and it's homeland

And that it will try to race towards nuclear weapons despite the risks

Wouldn't make sense for them not to after being attacked unless they prefer to remain a nuclear threshold state.