Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds
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Falcon29
Elite Member
There's going to be a deal. Iran absorbed strikes but how significant that will be depends on how far back their nuclear program was set. They'll also need about two years to recover to their pre-war strength. US is building more Patriot + Thaad systems to deploy over next three years or so across the region.
This deal will be more of a 2-3 year pause. We'll see if Iranian leadership pursues longer range missiles and nuclear weapons or not.
We'll see how Israeli policy evolves and will need to observe Lebanon + Syria arenas to see how their policy evolves. Gaza will be sidelined for foreseeable future. Gaza reconstruction may not even begin for another 5 years.
This deal will be more of a 2-3 year pause. We'll see if Iranian leadership pursues longer range missiles and nuclear weapons or not.
We'll see how Israeli policy evolves and will need to observe Lebanon + Syria arenas to see how their policy evolves. Gaza will be sidelined for foreseeable future. Gaza reconstruction may not even begin for another 5 years.
Falcon29
Elite Member
Qatar PM meeting with Trump is likely about forwarding Iranian response of agreeing to deal for sanctions relief + end of USN blockade.
Iran survived and strangled the Gulf States and Strait of Hormuz. But it failed to direct effective strikes at Israel whether through itself or allies in region. Which means Israel will be eager to reignite hostilities at a later time and will be the one to likely reignite tensions. Israel has more reach in Iran than Iran has in Israel and I don't know how Iran could change that except through creating a nuclear deterrent.
What this tells us is nobody besides Turkey and Egypt have a credible deterrent against Israel and Egypt is more likely to have strongest offensive package of any Muslim states in region against Israel.
Iran survived and strangled the Gulf States and Strait of Hormuz. But it failed to direct effective strikes at Israel whether through itself or allies in region. Which means Israel will be eager to reignite hostilities at a later time and will be the one to likely reignite tensions. Israel has more reach in Iran than Iran has in Israel and I don't know how Iran could change that except through creating a nuclear deterrent.
What this tells us is nobody besides Turkey and Egypt have a credible deterrent against Israel and Egypt is more likely to have strongest offensive package of any Muslim states in region against Israel.
Falcon29
Elite Member
I would think Iran would become less risk averse after what transpired to its axis over the past few years and it's homeland
And that it will try to race towards nuclear weapons despite the risks
Wouldn't make sense for them not to after being attacked unless they prefer to remain a nuclear threshold state.
And that it will try to race towards nuclear weapons despite the risks
Wouldn't make sense for them not to after being attacked unless they prefer to remain a nuclear threshold state.
Hassan Al-Somal
Elite Member
ChineseTiger1986
Trusted Member
It is very likely that Xi Jinping will pass his power to a Maoist successor because China's younger millennials and Gen-Z are mostly hardcore Maoists.
But Xi himself is not pure Dengist as many pro-west Dengists view him as the pure betrayal to Deng Xiaoping's pro-US doctrine.
Deng Xiaoping did rescue his father and his family during China's cultural revolution which was Mao's foreshadowing attempt to prevent those future successors like Gorbachev and Yeltsin.
Xi and his father were grateful to Deng Xiaoping, but Xi does realize that Deng's pro-US doctrine was wrong, and it needs to be rectified.
Xi will serve as bridge between to redirect China from Dengists to Maoists.
His Maoist successor will be 100% anti-US hardliner and push for a 100% decoupling.
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Hassan Al-Somal
Elite Member
According to Ali Gholhaki, an Iranian journalist close to the country's establishment, Qatar's latest proposal to end the US war on Iran would accept Iranian enrichment at 3.67%. Gholhaki says Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir, the country's Chief of Defense Forces, had promised that point.Gholhaki wrote Sunday that the plan would also have:
️ Iran dilute its 400 kg of 60% enriched uranium inside the country️ The US lift its naval blockade and free $6 to $10 billion in Iranian assets️ Iran mediate between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Ansarallah️ Iran admit IAEA inspectors and then reopen the Strait of HormuzHe called the plan a "clear US retreat" after 18 months of Washington demanding zero enrichment and the transfer of Iran's 60% uranium to the US.
He set that against a "relative" retreat by Tehran, which he said still insists on its seven conditions.
Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, who is mediating between Iran and the U.S., is set to meet Trump at the White House Monday, per AP.
On Sunday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, "I wouldn't say we're at the verge of a breakthrough." He called some of Iran's demands "outrageous and ridiculous."
As is Iran blowing up oil tankers on a daily basis.
Hassan Al-Somal
Elite Member
Trump responds to JD Vance blaming the GOP’s midterm wipeout on the Iran war:
“A lot of people didn’t like his comments, but not me. He was right, other than one thing, he should have made one other statement, one statement at I think is very important. ‘If you had it to do again, would you do it again?’ The answer is yes.”
“A lot of people didn’t like his comments, but not me. He was right, other than one thing, he should have made one other statement, one statement at I think is very important. ‘If you had it to do again, would you do it again?’ The answer is yes.”
Hassan Al-Somal
Elite Member
Immortals
Elite Member
And ultimately a big beneficiary of that will be Iran (assuming Iran hasn’t completely fallen to pro Western indoctrinated individuals like Deng).
For now Xi has kept Iran as a thorn in the West side, but his lucrative trade with the West/Europe and close relations with Arab countries like Saudi Arabia meant he was never going to seriously engage with Iran militarily (major weapon deals or ToT) or even economically and run the risk of making everyone else mad.
Even during the current war, Xi slashed oil imports by up to 5MBPD and kept the western world alive. I doubt a staunch Maoist would pass up an opportunity to weaken the west like Xi did.
In the end we will see how it all plays out. But I don’t think Xi will remain premier for too long and the next election might be his last.
Already there is a notable air in the party as individuals decide what they want the long term trajectory of China to look like. Xi will be in his late 70’s when his next term is completed. I think their will be pressure by then for him to step aside and let a Maoist take control.
Who would you say has the best chances to succeed Xi?
Abdul q
Trusted Member
Its all down to Epstein files, this pedo is scared because pussreilis have him by the balls
