Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[tsunset]

I think as there were 5 deaths this time and the fact that the entity's attack was mainly a failure(lack of capability), Iran will at least destroy 1-2 military facilities and missile production facilities in Israel.

That would be proportionate and give Iran "escalation dominance" as the entity would not want then to go to targeting civilian infrastructure like energy facilities. It simply has no capacity to hit military related targets in Iran in a meaningful way as the last Zionist attack on Iran showed.

The Israeli attack was very suspicious and looks like they had a way bigger plan to execute and a lot of additional waves which they didn't do for unknown reason, i am sure the operation got canceled in the middle of it, what they did looks like a job half done

I expect Iran to aim at radars and AD sites (eye for an eye), and the response will be proportionate and aimed at not killing anyone, Iran has a very hard time to accept that operations like this and war in general can kill people, and avoid deaths, including personnel, at all costs

THAAD will not be touched because of the repercussions

Or like you said, aiming for production sites, especially ALBM production facility or storage, in this case Emad, Ghadr, which have 10-100m CEP will have a way easier time to inflict damage, whereas AD sites and radars requires pinpoint accuracy and only Kheybar and Fattah can achieve this OR SRBMs launched from Iraq which have perfect accuracy

In all cases the response will be very proportional, without aiming energy, oil sites or nuclear sites

 

[UKBengali]

The Israeli attack was very suspicious and looks like they had a way bigger plan to execute and a lot of additional waves which they didn't do for unknown reason, i am sure the operation got canceled in the middle of it, what they did looks like a job half done

Far too many reports coming from multiple sources saying that the Zionist F-35s were "locked on" by an unknown radar system.

Some say it is Russian but I doubt that Russia would supply anything they had which was capable of the job.

Iran did say back in 2022 that the upgraded Bavar-373 had the ability to detect F-35(probably from testing with stealth drones with similar RCS or they were able to track US F-35s that were based out of Qatar) and so maybe that was the "unknown" system, along with an "anti-stealth radar" that picked up the strike package as it was heading towards Iran.

Whatever it is safe to say that the entity achieved only a fraction of what they wanted due to the "unexpected" performance of the Iranian IADS.

 

[Ali_Baba]

The Israeli attack was very suspicious and looks like they had a way bigger plan to execute and a lot of additional waves which they didn't do for unknown reason, i am sure the operation got canceled in the middle of it, what they did looks like a job half done

I expect Iran to aim at radars and AD sites (eye for an eye), and the response will be proportionate and aimed at not killing anyone, Iran has a very hard time to accept that operations like this and war in general can kill people, and avoid deaths, including personnel, at all costs

THAAD will not be touched because of the repercussions

Or like you said, aiming for production sites, especially ALBM production facility or storage, in this case Emad, Ghadr, which have 10-100m CEP will have a way easier time to inflict damage, whereas AD sites and radars requires pinpoint accuracy and only Kheybar and Fattah can achieve this OR SRBMs launched from Iraq which have perfect accuracy

In all cases the response will be very proportional, without aiming energy, oil sites or nuclear sites

Given the INTENT of Israels Strike, and not what Israel "managed" to carry achieve, the proportionality of response striike should be match Israels intent. Israel was about to go to town on Iran very horribly and they failed.

Irans proportional response approachj is nonsense and is inviting a war, Israel is not feeling complelled to constrain herself because Israel is not fearing Irans response. Irans reponse continues to be constrained, which is causing Iran to trip into war.

Iran has to respond, it has to hurt Israel, otherwise they wont fell compelled to escalate any further.

Look at how IDF cannot bear the fight in South Lebanon and is actively talking about trying to bring that front to a close. You have to ask yourself why? It is because the response to IDFs invasion has been soo strong, the costs so high, that they cannot cope with it. That is how you deal with Israel.

That is the lesson that Iran needs to take away from this. There 2 strikes have failed to contain Israel because those strikes were more about "messaging" and not about deterrence.

Lets see - if Iran does another strike and if it does not cause very very significant damage to Israels military-industrial complex then and high value military targets, the Israel will engage in full war because it will not fear Iran.

Iran needs to land a proper punch in Israels face, not a ladyslap that it has done to date.

 

[UKBengali]

Given the INTENT of Israels Strike, and not what Israel "managed" to carry achieve, the proportionality of response striike should be match Israels intent. Israel was about to go to town on Iran and they failed.

You have a good post, however you forget a simple thing...

Iran is 10x larger in population and so has 10x the number of targets.

Causing the same amount of absolute destruction on the entity would be both proportional and disproportional at the same time.

 

[LongLiveIran]

Given the INTENT of Israels Strike, and not what Israel "managed" to carry achieve, the proportionality of response striike should be match Israels intent. Israel was about to go to town on Iran and they failed.

Irans proportional response is nonsense and is inviting a war, Israel is not feeling complelled to constrain herself because Israel is not fearing Irans response. Irans reponse continues to be constrained, which is causing Iran to trip into war.

Iran has to respond, it has to hurt Israel, otherwise they wont fell compelled to escalate.

Look at how IDF cannot bear the fight in South Lebanon and is actively talking about trying to bring that front to a close. You have to ask yourself why? It is because the response to IDFs invasion has been so strong, that they cannot cope with it.

That is the lesson that Iran needs to take away from this. There 2 strikes have failed to contain Israel because those strikes were more about "messaging" and not about deterrence.

Lets see - if Iran does another strike and if it does not cause very significant damage to Israels military-industrial complex then, Israel will engage in full war because it will not fear Iran.

Iran needs to land a proper punch in Israels face, not a ladyslap that it has done to date.

I agree with your assessment overall, but the situation with Hezbollah is different.

Israel is engaged in ground battles with Hezbollah which is causing them to lose soldiers. If Iran wants to escalate the situation like that and directly target Israeli soldiers, it's going to be an entirely different situation. Also, don't forget that Israel is planting explosives to destroy Lebanese villages. So, Lebanon is paying a huge price as well, and much more than Iran.

Iran has so far not paid much for totally ruining the image of invincibility of Israel (which is strategically of great importance to Israel in the region) and Israel will never recover from what Iran has imposed on them.

 

[Ali_Baba]

You have a good post, however you forget a simple thing...

Iran is 10x larger in population and so has 10x the number of targets.

Causing the same amount of absolute destruction on the entity would be both proportional and disproportional at the same time.

irans current calculation of that ratio does seem to be wrong it seems as Israel does not feel constrained, the escalation ladder is being increased by Israel. The intent of the failed strike shows that.

 

[UKBengali]

irans current calculation of that ratio does seem to be wrong it seems as Israel does not feel constrained, the escalation ladder is being increased by Israel. The intent of the failed strike shows that.

They won't dare go for infrastructure like oil as the consequences for them will be catastrophic.

So they can try another military strike and fail once more. In return Iran causes more relative damage to their military sites and production facilities

Iran would be fine with that tit-for-tat. Why cause a destructive war when Hezbollah and others in the "Axis of Resistance" are giving the entity a massive beating? The idea is to eventually exhaust the entity and not a "knock out blow".

 

[Tamerlane]

There’s going to be a high level of volatility in the US after the elections. Whichever side loses will accuse the other side of rigging. Tempers may get heated in a country where there are 400 million guns.

It may be better for Iran to wait and see what happens in the US before the next round with the Zionist entity.

 

[jauk]

I think as there were 5 deaths this time and the fact that the entity's attack was mainly a failure(lack of capability), Iran will at least destroy 1-2 military facilities and missile production facilities in Israel.

That would be proportionate and give Iran "escalation dominance" as the entity would not want then to go to targeting civilian infrastructure like energy facilities. It simply has no capacity to hit military related targets in Iran in a meaningful way as the last Zionist attack on Iran showed.

What’s interesting, especially in terms of propaganda, one can argue that it might’ve been better for Iran to actually amplify the damage, particularly the 4-5 martyrs, to create a stronger basis for response.

 

[LongLiveIran]

There’s going to be a high level of volatility in the US after the elections. Whichever side loses will accuse the other side of rigging. Tempers may get heated in a country where there are 400 million guns.

It may be better for Iran to wait and see what happens in the US before the next round with the Zionist entity.

It makes no difference to Iran because both parties in the US agree on two things: their hatred for Iran and their love of Israel. The Iran-Israel situation is one of the rare instances of bi-partisan policies in the US.

 

[UKBengali]

It makes no difference to Iran because both parties in the US agree on two things: their hatred for Iran and their love of Israel. The Iran-Israel situation is one of the rare instances of bi-partisan policies in the US.

I fail to understand why anyone thinks there is even a hair's difference between Democrats and Republicans when it comes to ME.

Democrats may word it different but their policies are EXACTLY the same.

 

[tsunset]

 

[Tamerlane]

It makes no difference to Iran because both parties in the US agree on two things: their hatred for Iran and their love of Israel. The Iran-Israel situation is one of the rare instances of bi-partisan policies in the US.

Yes, but if the US descends into internal conflict and chaos then it won't have much time to worry about Israel. We all know that Israel has go, but that will only happen when the US is unwilling or unable to help it.

 

[LongLiveIran]

Yes, but if the US descends into internal conflict and chaos then it won't have much time to worry about Israel. We all know that Israel has go, but that will only happen when the US is unwilling or unable to help it.

Add to this list nearly all of key positions in Trump's 2016 administration and most of the current Biden administration. Even if the US enters complete chaos and a civil war, they won't give up on defending Israel. They are literally Israeli citizens living in the US.

 

[UKBengali]

Yes, but if the US descends into internal conflict and chaos then it won't have much time to worry about Israel. We all know that Israel has go, but that will only happen when the US is unwilling or unable to help it.

In essence at least for the next 5-10 years US support is taken as a given. Whether we have Democrat or Republican in White House is quite irrelevant.

Iran has a strategy to exhaust it from constant military pressure. The economic boycotts have already started due to its own barbarism.