Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Developereo]

I agree with you whenever you talk about US. EU doesn't want to work anymore with Netanyahu. Just Germany keep arming Israel. But even France and Italy have lifted an arms embargo over Israel.

Macron is just doing what France always does: try to act important even though they are completely irrelevant compared to the US. France, and Macron, are incredibly anti-Muslim because of domestic pressure from far-right parties who are catching up to him.

Err, I need a credible report to say 12-14 million barrels can be brought online within 3 months.

That is a projection for 2030 and so is pointless.

Current world oil production is 100 million barrels and it will rise to 114 million barrels in six years. That extra 14 million barrels will just replace what would be lost within days in an all-out ME war.

You made a claim that the lost ME capacity can be replaced quickly so that the world economy does not sink and so back it up with a credible source.

Almost all the oil/gas that passes through SoH goes to Asia. Western oil imports do not go through the SoH. As for Western allies like Japan and South Korea, the West will simply divert the oil they currently sell to China to go to them instead. There may be penalty clauses and wartime exemptions in the contracts, but those are details. Once again, the squeeze will be on China. China's economy is already on edge and the last thing they will appreciate is this 'gift' from Iran.

As for spare capacity, Saudi Arabia alone has spare oil capacity of 5 million bpd which can be ramped up within days. Keep in mind that Saudi Arabia has export terminals on both coasts. The US has strategic reserves but they are for domestic use, not export. However, with those reserves in play, the US will have more freedom to put the brakes on global oil prices since it is the largest exporter of oil. Between Saudi Arabia and the US strategic reserves, we have almost 10 million bpd of extra oil available within days.

So, bottom line, yes there will be global impact but the brunt of it will be on China and non-Western allies. Everybody, including the West, will be impacted by the rise in oil/gas prices but the West will ride it out much easier compared to the rest of the world.

If the intent is to punish the West, then this weapon is pointing the wrong way.

Oil security and emergency response - About - IEA

www.iea.org

https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/203eb8eb-2147-4c99-af07-2d3804b8db3f/StraitofHormuzFactsheet.pdf

 

[Developereo]

When the US's collapse starts happening

Sorry, but the US is not collapsing any time soon.

I support Iran but let's not live in some fantasy world.

 

[UKBengali]

Macron is just doing what France always does: try to act important even though they are completely irrelevant compared to the US. France, and Macron, are incredibly anti-Muslim because of domestic pressure from far-right parties who are catching up to him.



Almost all the oil/gas that passes through SoH goes to Asia. Western oil imports do not go through the SoH. As for Western allies like Japan and South Korea, the West will simply divert the oil they currently sell to China to go to them instead. There may be penalty clauses and wartime exemptions in the contracts, but those are details. Once again, the squeeze will be on China. China's economy is already on edge and the last thing they will appreciate is this 'gift' from Iran.

As for spare capacity, Saudi Arabia alone has spare oil capacity of 5 million bpd which can be ramped up within days. Keep in mind that Saudi Arabia has export terminals on both coasts. The US has strategic reserves but they are for domestic use, not export. However, with those reserves in play, the US will have more freedom to put the brakes on global oil prices since it is the largest exporter of oil. Between Saudi Arabia and the US strategic reserves, we have almost 10 million bpd of extra oil available within days.

So, bottom line, yes there will be global impact but the brunt of it will be on China and non-Western allies. Everybody, including the West, will be impacted by the rise in oil/gas prices but the West will ride it out much easier compared to the rest of the world.

If the intent is to punish the West, then this weapon is pointing the wrong way.

Oil security and emergency response - About - IEA

www.iea.org

https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/203eb8eb-2147-4c99-af07-2d3804b8db3f/StraitofHormuzFactsheet.pdf

You simply cannot let it go as you want to keep alive a fantasy narrative.

How is KSA going to export a single drop of oil as Iran has made it clear if its oil and gas fields are attacked it will destroy all of the oil and gas fields in Gulf region? Even the Houthis forced KSA to capitulate after targeting their energy facilities and so Iran can do the same and more.

Now you think that somehow that the US will engineer that only China loses. Well China imports only maybe 1/3rd the oil exports of the ME. All US allies will sink immediately into a depression as their economies quickly stall.

Also I have no idea how you think that Russia will so easily forgive western slaughter of hundreds of thousands of Russians in Ukraine and 100s of billions in economic losses. It is not like Russia is even that desperate as its economy is doing better than Europe's.

I have no idea why you are persisting with this. Bizarre.

 

[Tehrani021]

unbelievably delusional take

ask any iranian who lives in iran if they agree with you

I was in iran recently and outside of north tehran things are not good at all

even empirically the cost of US sanctions is in the trillions of dollars

You're using North Tehran as a benchmark for all of Iran?! Great, so let's use Mayfair or Golders Green as a benchmark for all of UK, shall we? Utter nonesense.

 

[Developereo]

Some people here think that all that these countries need to do is to turn the tap a bit more and more oil will come out.

The history of global oil is full of voluntary cuts by producer nations to manage the price. That is why OPEC is called a cartel. Voluntary cuts can be immediately rescinded.

How is KSA going to export a single drop of oil as Iran has made it clear if its oil and gas fields are attacked it will destroy all of the oil and gas fields in Gulf region? Even the Houthis forced KSA to capitulate after targeting their energy facilities and so Iran can do the same and more.

We are talking about closing the Strait of Hormuz, not attacking Saudi Arabia itself. An attack on Saudi Arabia might bring in the US to attack Iran. Iran does not want a direct confrontation with the US. The most it will do it Houthi-style attacks to raise insurance costs and effectively close the SoH.

Now you think that somehow that the US will engineer that only China loses. Well China imports only maybe 1/3rd the oil exports of the ME.

The US doesn't need to engineer anything. Facts are facts.

China imports Crude Petroleum primarily from: Saudi Arabia ($56.1B), Russia ($51B), Iraq ($33.8B), Oman ($25.2B), and Angola ($21.5B).

These figures are a couple years old and China is shifting to import more from Russia but it is by far the biggest sufferer if SoH closes.

All US allies will sink immediately into a depression as their economies quickly stall.

Nothing is immediate and I already explained how the West can make up the shortfall in the short term. Yes, everybody will be impacted, but the maximum damage will be to China and non-Western allies.

Also I have no idea how you think that Russia will so easily forgive western slaughter of hundreds of thousands of Russians in Ukraine and 100s of billions in economic losses. It is not like Russia is even that desperate as its economy is doing better than Europe's.

Russia is desperate for real money. PPP GDP is worthless on the global stage.

 

[Shawnee]

I wouldn't address the other stuff right now, but Israel is greatly exaggerating October 7 tactical strike. It is not on such a large scale they made it out to be. There were no 'massacres' of any kind. The Israeli army is just not prepared for that kind of scenario.

Hamas sent assigned groups, but each group had a designated mission and were not aware of each others missions until it came down to execution phase, well into it. So each group may have completed a mission rather easily, and they were not aware of any results regarding casualties and prisoners captured. So these groups needed to make sure something was achieved in terms of results and did more than what asked. By the time the thing was over, the results were bigger than imagined.

This is the first time Hamas would execute a mission like that and they planned and executed well. Probably because they didn't want to fail. And failure was no a option. Most of Hamas wasn't aware of their this plan. And the assigned groups each had a exclusive mission but didn't know the rest of squads that would all join as one force. Saleh Al Arouri didn't know. Israel thought Hamas was focused on West Bank. Hamas in Gaza did not inform anyone of the plan because it was to be executed at random, and the full scope was only known by fewer people.

Israel however and Western media went hard to work to claim this is a massive 'terror' attack and massacres and all kinds of lies. When there was no such drama. Tactical strikes only lasted several hours. Each strike that was successful led to elimination of 20 or so soldiers. It added up at the end but when it comes proportionality, it was mostly smaller numbers of soldiers/security forces eliminated in many different areas. Not one giant massacre here or there. There was no such thing.

Israel, however, has been trying since 10 years to eliminate the Palestinian cause. And they tried having Sisi move Palestinains into Egypt. They tried Abraham accords, etc... this is something they're trying to execute for long time. So their motive was already there. They weren't reacting. They just believe let's see how far we can get away with things. And the more they see, the more they try. They've always been inherently violent. Don't mistaken any of what's happening as a reaction. It's not. They're trying to make strategic moves through terrorism/ethnic cleansing which is not strange to them. And something they comfortably employ and have done since decades.

Hamas's move was reactionary, proportional, and justified. And Hamas wanted to break status quo in the region and encourage region to make strategic moves. Putting people in a prison and besieging it for 20 years will cause a prison break, or reaction like that.

The Western Jews basically flipped everything upside with the Western media campaign which apparently Arabs and Muslims didn't bother to counter and allowing them to go ahead and level Gaza made world think they're boiling and reaction, they achieved the emotional manipulation that was, when really they were calm and collected but wanted to carry out such ethnic cleansing for a long time. And they made it so narrative is it was a given that Gaza would be carpet bombed and levelled.

When that is not the case. That was not going to happen to Gaza if Arabs and Muslims even remotely exercised their influence. Instead they got intimidated by the dirty media campaign propaganda and gave in immediately. When you accept their narrative and refuse to advance Hamas's narrative , then they gave Israel everything they wanted and made it appear credible.

Hamas didn't want to startle its allies or put them in a vulnerable situation but it also has interests of its people at forefront and was in a difficult situation. Hamas was making lots of rhetoric about regional war for Jerusalem beforehand. And Hamas was serious about the region and it's people taking a risk to achieve strategic gains. Obviously Hamas overestimated willingness of people of region and it's nations to do that. And underestimated how dead and defeated they were.

Everything gets downplayed or exaggerated.

Yemen did 100 attacks like Abqaiq. Only one was super exaggerated as Abqaiq attack.

99% was called missiles falling in desert lands.

 

[mangekyo]

Yellow flag: that’s basic hearsay. You use it quite a bit.

I see quite otherwise. Well to do but nagging incessantly. And that’s my hearsay.

However, what is a fact is Iranian world class entitlement and complaining.

Hypocrisy at its finest. You are the entitled one, living comfortably in the west while complaining about Iranians who are living in shit conditions. If life in Iran is so great, why don’t you go live there?

 

[925boy]

Sorry, but the US is not collapsing any time soon.

based on what? How well do you actually understand what US runs on and by? Most of US's indicators are bad or negative, which tells me this is just your wish.

I support Iran but let's not live in some fantasy world.

If you know me you know i hate fantasies and unrealistic crap. But some people call things fantasies when the real issue is their lack of understanding.

 

[Developereo]

based on what? How well do you actually understand what US runs on and by? Most of US's indicators are bad or negative, which tells me this is just your wish.

If you know me you know i hate fantasies and unrealistic crap. But some people call things fantasies when the real issue is their lack of understanding.

If you want to believe that the US is collapsing then fine.

 

[UKBengali]

If you want to believe that the US is collapsing then fine.

US does not need to collapse but someone else like China to offer what it does.

In that sense it will in essence "collapse'.

 

[jauk]

Hypocrisy at its finest. You are the entitled one, living comfortably in the west while complaining about Iranians who are living in shit conditions. If life in Iran is so great, why don’t you go live there?

I live in Eswatini. Like really. Don’t be mean.

 

[jauk]

If you want to believe that the US is collapsing then fine.

If you don’t that’s fine too.

 

[Garcia Sea]

Crude oil exported through the Strait of Hormuz is destined for Asia, mostly for China.
Therefore, it is China that will be troubled by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and there are even claims in the U.S. to intentionally start a war to deal a blow to China for this reason.
Unfortunately, the threat of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz cannot be used as a card to stop the US and Israel.
Iran's greatest deterrent was the fear that in the event of an emergency, missiles would rain down from Lebanon, which borders Israel, and Israel would be in the line of fire.
Now that this has been exposed as an illusion, Iran's options are extremely limited.
The failure to promote uranium enrichment during the four years of the Biden administration was ultimately an irreversible mistake.
Perhaps it was the only bargaining card that could have been played.

 

[Shawnee]

Therefore, it is China that will be troubled by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and there are even claims in the U.S. to intentionally start a war to deal a blow to China for this reason.
Unfortunately, the threat of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz cannot be used as a card to stop the US and Israel.
Iran's greatest deterrent was the fear that in the event of an emergency, missiles would rain down from Lebanon, which borders Israel, and Israel would be in the line of fire.
Now that this has been exposed as an illusion, Iran's options are extremely limited.
The failure to promote uranium enrichment during the four years of the Biden administration was ultimately an irreversible mistake.
Perhaps it was the only bargaining card that could have been played.

Your argument is based on the assumption that there is no enrichment in under ground facilities and all sorts of enrichment shall be advertised.

If their plan is to milk US, they will keep it quite until it is no more milk-able.


If HZ goes full force with missiles, a war with Iran is unavoidable for Israel. Even Iraqi and Syrian forces are staying out of the war as of now.

You may want to assume there is no Iraqi or Syrian force to join either.

Your Hormuz argument assumes Europe is independent of the Persian Gulf oil. No.
When oil prices escalate above 100, there will be a recession historically. Even if you drill at home.

 

[Khansaheeb]

A nuclear Iran will make Israel and America think twice about starting a war but a almost ready nuclear Iran might not have the same effect. They will never invade North Korea because they already have nuclear weapons 50-60 of them enough to destroy both South Korea and Japan. Iran is still wanting to normalize ties with the West but let me tell u tho Iran can't have a peaceful coexistence with the West without giving up on its resistance allies. Israel would never allow Iran to be close with the West while threaten its existence.

For regional stability it is Pakistan's interest for Iran and Turkey to have nukes. Wars and refugees is not in our interest and a war with Iran by NATO would definitely hit Pakistan's economy and trade. As a matter of urgency Pakistan should fully open the border for trade with Iran and have full road and rail links.