Would Yemen agree with you? Yemen beat up NATO and Israeli ships in the Red Sea so much, it disrupted global trade and Yemen hasn't paid too high a cost yet in retaliation from the West for doing that.
US cant even keep oil sanctions on Russia AND Venezuela at the same time, because disrupts the global oil market too much- now that US and Russia are on bad terms, US already eased off sanctions on Venezuela, so it can access its oil and oil products. US can barely bully small countries like Venezuela, so can you imagine what little it really does to a beast like Iran that is in a much more strategic region, holds strategic territories, and has been busting sanctions for over 30 years? lmao.
and Russia would take the US's delicious foreign exchange $$$ from selling it oil to go beat up Ukraine and take more of its territory it doesn't need quicker. In today's hydrocarbon reliant world, you cant make Russia broke- know this and know peace.
Yes- Norway today is being run more and more by its oil trust fund, and less by oil sales/business.I am not even going to talk about the others but seriously you mentioned Norway here?!!
North Sea is a mature oil and gas area with diminishing reserves. What little may still be found is not going to make up for production.
Production forecasts - Norwegianpetroleum.no
Historical data and latest production outlook of oil and gas on the Norwegian Continental Shelf.www.norskpetroleum.no
View attachment 77895
Reserves are projected to fall, even with "undiscovered reserves":
View attachment 77896
unbelievably delusional take
I was in Iranian neighborhood, only iranian Beludzistan can match their life conditions, even iranian part is better than other 2...
Yellow flag: that’s basic hearsay. You use it quite a bit.
Hmm..ok.
thats the mistake you made- dont ask people for "opinions" on things you can ready and analyze objectively to understand, like economics. people shared their feelings with you, and you took that as facts? well no wonder you're confused about the state of Iran's real economy. They will tell you all the things they dont like or dont think they like or have, while leaving out all the good and things they take for granted that people in other countries dont have (like cheap cheap gas).
give me numbers or details, not opinions or perceptions or feelings.
But what would the cost to be Iran nationally, ideologically, religiously, historically etc if it let US have its way and it removed sanctions? More than those trillions of dollars you claim US sanctions caused- Iran as a nation CHOSE not to be a vassal of the US system (and that choice is not cost free)- you can't even put a price on the fact that Iranians still have their full culture and governance system in their country that they want (majority at least).
Nope, that is part iv...now iran will do something like previous two, but more quality and quantity...then no one will stop Israel to bomb iranian nuclear facilities...red line and boiling point of iranian "second strike"...Iran could repair the facilities with Russian support...Israel will look like Hiroshima, but less nuclear and more kinetic...
French propaganda after being kicked out of semi-continent...
Macron is just doing what France always does: try to act important even though they are completely irrelevant compared to the US. France, and Macron, are incredibly anti-Muslim because of domestic pressure from far-right parties who are catching up to him.
Almost all the oil/gas that passes through SoH goes to Asia. Western oil imports do not go through the SoH. As for Western allies like Japan and South Korea, the West will simply divert the oil they currently sell to China to go to them instead. There may be penalty clauses and wartime exemptions in the contracts, but those are details. Once again, the squeeze will be on China. China's economy is already on edge and the last thing they will appreciate is this 'gift' from Iran.
As for spare capacity, Saudi Arabia alone has spare oil capacity of 5 million bpd which can be ramped up within days. Keep in mind that Saudi Arabia has export terminals on both coasts. The US has strategic reserves but they are for domestic use, not export. However, with those reserves in play, the US will have more freedom to put the brakes on global oil prices since it is the largest exporter of oil. Between Saudi Arabia and the US strategic reserves, we have almost 10 million bpd of extra oil available within days.
So, bottom line, yes there will be global impact but the brunt of it will be on China and non-Western allies. Everybody, including the West, will be impacted by the rise in oil/gas prices but the West will ride it out much easier compared to the rest of the world.
If the intent is to punish the West, then this weapon is pointing the wrong way.
